Virginia Football vs. Miami Game Preview, Score Prediction
The Virginia Cavaliers host the Miami Hurricanes in a crucial ACC Coastal Clash for both teams. UVA just snapped a three-game losing streak with a win at Georgia Tech last week, while the Hurricanes enter this week having lost four of their last five games. As Tony Elliott and Mario Cristobal get set for their first meeting as ACC head coaches, it comes at a pivotal point in both of their seasons. With each team sitting at 3-4 and having only one conference win, this game can serve either as a turning point or a breaking point.
Read on for a full preview of Miami at Virginia, including details on how to watch, stat comparisons, offensive and defensive scouting reports, and a score prediction.
Game Details
Who: Miami Hurricanes (3-4, 1-2 ACC) at Virginia Cavaliers (3-4, 1-3 ACC)
When: Saturday, October 29th at 12:30pm
Where: Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia
How to watch: ACC Regional Sports Networks
How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
All-time series: Miami leads 11-8
Last meeting: Virginia defeated Miami 30-28 at Miami in 2021.
Spread: Miami -2
Over/Under: 48.5
Stat Comparisons
Opponent Snapshot: Miami
2021: 7-5, 5-3 ACC
2022: 3-4, 1-2 ACC
Wins: vs. Bethune-Cookman 70-13, vs. Southern Miss 30-7, at Virginia Tech 20-14
Losses: at Texas A&M 17-9, vs. Middle Tennessee State 45-31, vs. North Carolina 27-24, vs. Duke 45-21
The Hurricanes came into the 2022 season with high hopes for what the first year of the Mario Cristobal era of Miami football might bring. Miami was picked to win the ACC Coastal in the preseason media poll and received eight first-place votes as the overall ACC Champion. With the amount of talent on the roster, including the 2021 ACC Rookie of the Year in quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, it wasn't hard to imagine the Canes winning a lot of games in 2022.
It hasn't quite panned out that way for Cristobal, Van Dyke and the Hurricanes. Van Dyke, who threw for 2,931 yards and 25 touchdowns in just nine starts last season, suffered a shoulder injury to his throwing arm in the loss to Duke last week and it seems likely that Miami will be without him at Virginia on Saturday. But the Hurricanes had plenty of issues even before Van Dyke got hurt. Miami's offense has struggled mightily over the last several games, beginning with putting up only nine points in a loss at Texas A&M. The Hurricanes suffered losses to Middle Tennessee State, North Carolina, and Duke - all at home. Even the team's one win - a 20-14 victory at Virginia Tech - wasn't very inspiring.
But, the Hurricanes remain one of the more talented teams in college football so the Cavaliers will have to field a much better performance than we have seen from them for the most part this season in order to win on Saturday.
Miami Offense vs. Virginia Defense
Without Tyler Van Dyke (which isn't confirmed yet), the Hurricanes will turn to redshirt freshman Jake Garcia. In four appearances so far this season, Garcia has completed 32 of 49 passes for 470 yards and two touchdowns to three interceptions. He took over for Van Dyke in the second quarter last week, completing 13 of his 21 attempts for 198 yards and two touchdowns. If Garcia does start, this will be the third-consecutive week that Virginia will be facing a backup quarterback. Louisville's Brock Domann torched the UVA defense in week 6, but the Cavaliers bounced back after the bye week and smothered Georgia Tech especially after starter Jeff Sims exited in the second quarter. Having a backup play quarterback is a little different in the case of Miami though, as Jake Garcia was a consensus four-star recruit coming out of high school and Mario Cristobal and company have confidence that he can effectively operate the Miami offense, which is filled with talented playmakers at the skill positions.
Miami ranks 3rd in the ACC in total offense at 448.1 yards per game, but only 8th in the conference in scoring offense at 29.3 points per game. The Hurricanes have tried to establish their run game, but rank 11th in the ACC at 130.1 rushing yards per game. Miami averages 318.0 passing yards per game, which is 2nd only to North Carolina in the ACC.
Tight end Will Mallory is Miami's top receiving target. The 6'5" senior is 15th in the ACC with 349 receiving yards and he is one of four Miami receivers with at least 200 receiving yards on the season. Colbie Young leads the group with four receiving touchdowns, while Clemson transfer Frank Ladson Jr. has 246 yards and one touchdown. UVA's secondary has been a strength of the team so far this season with Anthony Johnson and Fentrell Cypress II leading the ACC in passes defended. But that unit will have to be especially good against Miami's talent on the perimeter, even if it's Jake Garcia throwing to them.
The most dynamic player with the ball in his hands is sophomore Key'Shawn Smith, who ranks 4th in the ACC in all-purpose yards. He has 192 receiving yards, 14 rushing yards and 640 return yards. Virginia's special teams woes haven't yet involved issues with kickoff or punt coverage, but one play on special teams has the potential to decide a game, so UVA must not allow Smith to break free on a return.
Two factors to keep an eye on are red zone execution and turnovers. The Hurricanes rank 5th in the ACC in red zone offense, scoring on 28 of their 33 red zone trips. 20 of those 33 attempts ended in touchdowns. On the other hand, Miami is one of the more turnover-prone teams in college football, fumbling nine times and throwing seven interceptions. Virginia has been even worse with turning the ball over, but we'll touch on that later.
Miami has given up 18 sacks so far this season, which ranks 9th in the ACC. The Virginia defensive front had just one sack combined in UVA's previous two games before exploding for eight sacks against Georgia Tech last week. If UVA can win in the trenches, holding up well against the run and getting to the quarterback at least a few times, the Cavaliers should be able to keep this close and give the UVA offense a chance to wake up and win the game.
Virginia Offense vs. Miami Defense
Any progress Virginia has made in developing into its new offensive system this season has not shown up on the scoreboard. UVA is getting better at moving the ball down the field, but the Cavaliers rank 13th in the ACC in scoring offense at just 17.6 points per game. The once-vaunted Cavalier passing attack is very gradually improving - now ranked 8th in the ACC at 231.1 passing yards per game - while the ground game has been hit-or-miss all season long. Virginia had 155 rushing yards in the win over Georgia Tech last week, but had just 99 combined rushing yards between the two blowout losses against Duke and Louisville. Miami is stout against the run - ranking 2nd in the ACC in run defense - so it's more likely that this will be a "miss" game for the Cavaliers rushing attack.
Virginia's main issue on offense is a failure to punctuate drives with points. UVA is 16 of 22 on red zone trips, but has scored just 11 touchdowns on those trips. We have to mention special teams here as well. Between Brendan Farrell and now Will Bettridge, the Cavaliers have missed six of their 13 field goal attempts. Bettridge did not bring his A-game to Atlanta last Thursday, missing two field goals and an extra point. With those points on the board instead of left on the table, UVA probably wouldn't have had to sweat it out at the end of the game against Georgia Tech.
There are signs that Virginia is beginning to get more comfortable in the new system under Tony Elliott and Des Kitchings, but the same problems are persisting in the passing game: Brennan Armstrong is still missing throws here and there and the drops by the UVA receivers are still happening and they're still costly. In the Georgia Tech game, Lavel Davis Jr. dropped what should have been an easy touchdown and then Keytaon Thompson had a pass go off his hands that resulted in a pick-six that was responsible for Georgia Tech's only touchdown of the game. Without those two plays, it probably would have been a sizable and confidence-boosting win for the Cavaliers over the Yellow Jackets. Instead, it was the UVA defense once again that saved the day.
The Miami defense won't make it easy for Virginia, especially in the red zone. The Hurricanes have given up only 12 touchdowns on their opponents' combined 24 trips to the red zone. While the UVA defense caught lightning in a bottle with eight sacks last week, the Miami defensive front has been more consistent this season. The Canes have recorded 24 sacks, which ranks 2nd in the ACC just ahead of Virginia's 23. While UVA's offensive line has improved this season, it still ranks 12th in the ACC with 20 sacks surrendered.
Miami boasts the second-best run defense in the ACC, allowing just 112.7 rushing yards per game, so it will likely be up to Armstrong and the receivers to get UVA moving down the field. It will be interesting to see if Kitchings and Elliott abandon the run entirely if it doesn't appear to be going anywhere.
Miami has two players in the top five in the ACC in tackles for loss: linebacker Corey Flagg Jr. (2nd) and defensive lineman Akheem Mesidor (5th), who also ranks 2nd in the ACC in sacks, trailing Virginia's Chico Bennett Jr., who is the conference's leading pass rusher with six sacks on the season.
This will be the toughest test of the season so far for the Virginia offensive line, but that group must be solid and give Armstrong time to throw. The Cavaliers have been inching closer from a yardage standpoint and they still believe that a breakthrough is coming, but that will require a number of things to happen: the UVA offensive line must hold the line up front, Brennan Armstrong's accuracy must improve, and the Virginia receivers must stop dropping catchable passes. If the Hoos can check those three boxes, this is a very winnable game to get them back to .500.
Prediction
Turnovers will be a big factor in this matchup, as both teams rank towards the bottom of the FBS in turnover differential. Miami has recovered seven fumbles and recorded seven interceptions, but the Canes have also thrown seven interceptions and lost nine fumbles for a -4 turnover margin. Virginia is even worse with a -6 turnover differential, having thrown nine interceptions and fumbled the ball 10 times while the UVA defense has recorded five picks and eight fumbles. Both teams are likely to cough the ball up, so I wouldn't say that the number of turnovers or the turnover differential will determine the winner. Rather, what each team does with those takeaways from a points-off-turnovers standpoint will be the single-most important factor in the outcome of the game.
Last week was the first time all season that I predicted Virginia to lose, but the Cavaliers went into Atlanta and picked up their first ACC win of the year. With that in mind, I'm going to predict Miami to win in a close one on Saturday in Charlottesville.
Score Prediction: Virginia 24, Miami 27
See more Virginia football news and content: Virginia Football on Sports Illustrated
See more Virginia sports news and content: Virginia Cavaliers on Sports Illustrated
To stay up to date on all Virginia Cavaliers sports news, follow CavaliersNow on social media:
Facebook: @CavaliersNow
Twitter: @CavaliersNowFN
