Virginia Football vs. Pittsburgh Game Preview, Score Prediction
The defending Atlantic Coast Conference Champion Pittsburgh Panthers come to Charlottesville to take on the Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday. There's a lot at stake in this matchup, as Pitt can become the 9th ACC team to clinch bowl eligibility with a win over UVA, while Virginia needs to win each of its last three games in order to get to the six-win threshold to go to a bowl game in the first season of the Tony Elliott era.
Read on for a full preview of Pittsburgh at Virginia, including details on how to watch, stat comparisons, offensive and defensive scouting reports, and a score prediction.
Game Details
Who: Pittsburgh Panthers (5-4, 2-3 ACC) at Virginia Cavaliers (3-6, 1-5 ACC)
When: Saturday, November 12th at 12pm
Where: Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia
How to watch: ACC Network
How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
All-time series: Pittsburgh leads 9-4
Last meeting: Pitt defeated Virginia 48-38 last season in Pittsburgh.
Spread: Pittsburgh -4
Over/Under: 40.0
Stat Comparisons
Opponent Snapshot: Pittsburgh
2021: 11-3, 7-1 ACC | ACC Champions
2022: 5-4, 2-3 ACC
Wins: vs. West Virginia 38-31, at Western Michigan 34-13, vs. Rhode Island 45-24, vs. Virginia Tech 45-29, vs. Syracuse 19-9
Losses: vs. Tennessee 34-27 (OT), vs. Georgia Tech 26-21, at Louisville 24-10, at North Carolina 42-24
2021 was a magical season for Pat Narduzzi's Pitt Panthers, who captured the ACC Championship for the first time in program history. Pittsburgh lost a lot of talent from that team, especially on the offensive end, including Heisman finalist quarterback Kenny Pickett and Biletnikoff Award-winning receiver Jordan Addison. Still, the Panthers returned a lot of talent on the defensive end and were touted as one of the top teams in the conference coming into the season, being picked to finish second in the ACC Coastal, just behind Miami.
Pitt had back-to-back thrilling games to start the season: a win over West Virginia and an overtime loss to a Tennessee team that could be bound for the College Football Playoff. Those results only heightened expectations for the Panthers to make a run at defending their ACC title. After cleaning up non-conference play with wins over Rhode Island and Western Michigan, Pitt stumbled in a 26-21 home loss to a Georgia Tech team that had just fired its head coach. It's been hit or miss since then for the Panthers, who beat Virginia Tech but then suffered two-straight losses to Louisville and North Carolina before bouncing back with an impressive defensive performance last week, taking down then-No. 20 Syracuse 19-9.
Pitt is officially out of the running for a return trip to the ACC Championship, but with games at home against Duke and then at Miami to close out the regular season, this season could still end in a number of different ways for the Panthers.
Pittsburgh Offense vs. Virginia Defense
The Panthers rank in the middle of the pack of the ACC in both scoring offense (8th with 29.2 points per game) and total offense (7th with 401.4 yards per game) and a lot of their success this season has come from their ground game. Pitt ranks 4th in the ACC with 179.8 rushing yards per game, mostly powered by Israel Abanikanda, one of the most dynamic running backs in all of college football. Abanikanda is the ACC's leading rusher at 135.8 rushing yards per game - the next best rusher on the list averages les than 90 yards per contest. He is the only ACC tailback to eclipse the 1,000-yard rushing mark so far this season, amassing 1,086 yards and 16 rushing touchdowns. Needless to say, UVA's defense will have to have 11 sets of eyes on Pitt's star running back whenever he is on the field.
With that said, Abanikanda will likely be operating at something less than 100% this Saturday. He missed last week's game against Syracuse with an injury and is expected to be back for the Virginia game, but could be on a limited snap count. The Panthers have a deep running back room though, as Rodney Hammond, C'Borius Flemister, and Vincent Davis have all gotten substantial carries this season and are capable of lessening the load on Abanikanda. So, no matter what Abanikanda's status is, expect Pitt to run the ball a lot, especially considering the team's struggles to pass the ball this season.
Kedon Slovis transferred to Pitt from USC as the solution at quarterback to replace Kenny Pickett. Slovis hasn't been bad, but he naturally hasn't been able to replicate the production of the 2021 ACC Football Player of the Year. He has completed 59.3% of his passes for 1,737 yards, but has thrown only five touchdowns to six interceptions. His top receivers are Jared Wayne (38 catches for 674 yards and a touchdown) and Konata Mumpfield (26 catches for 348 yards and a touchdown), but tight end Gavin Bartholomew is also a threat with two receiving touchdowns.
The UVA defense should have the edge against Pitt's passing game, as the Cavaliers rank 3rd in the ACC in passing defense, giving up only 204.0 passing yards per game. The Virginia secondary has been a revelation this season, led by cornerbacks Anthony Johnson and Fentrell Cypress II, who continue to rank among the conference's best in passes defended. Johnson, who has an argument as the ACC's best lockdown corner with 13 passes defended and two interceptions this season, received an invitation to the Reese's Senior Bowl on Thursday.
The Virginia pass rush has 30 sacks on the year led by the ACC's sack leader Chico Bennett Jr. with seven sacks. That's just another reason for the Panthers to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible, although Pitt does have a solid offensive line, giving up only 17 sacks all year, tied for 3rd-least in the ACC.
Virginia's run defense isn't nearly as good as its pass defense, surrendering 149.2 yards per game, which ranks 11th in the ACC. The battle when Pitt has the ball will be won or lost in the trenches. If the Cavaliers aren't able to stop the Panthers from picking up first downs on the ground, they could be stuck on the field for a long time on Saturday.
Virginia Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
Missing four starters on offense was apparently the recipe UVA needed to get things sorted out last Saturday against UNC, as Virginia turned in its best offensive performance of the season. Admittedly, that came against a Tar Heel team with a lot of vulnerabilities on the defensive end. But, the Cavaliers showed a lot of encouraging signs despite being without Keytaon Thompson, Dontayvion Wicks, Lavel Davis Jr. and Perris Jones. Sean Wilson and Sackett Wood Jr. delivered solid performances in the receiving game, as did Mike Hollins, Xavier Brown, and Ronnie Walker Jr. in the ground game.
At this point, it's still uncertain how different UVA's personnel availability will look like this weekend. From what Tony Elliott said in his weekly press conference, it seems Keytaon Thompson is the closest to making a return, while Lavel Davis Jr. remains in concussion protocol. Dontayvion Wicks has the longest-term injury with a bone bruise, but Elliott is hopeful that Wicks will be back soon. See the full injury report here: Virginia Football Injury Report and Depth Chart - Pittsburgh
Sure, there's a chance all three of UVA's top receivers make a comeback by Saturday, but that would be about as surprising as it was last Saturday when it was announced at the 11th hour that all three were going to miss the UNC game. And with Sean Wilson, Sackett Wood Jr., and Demick Starling playing well against the Tar Heels, they've certainly earned the opportunity for more playing time moving forward.
Pittsburgh brings in the ACC's No. 3 run defense, allowing only 109.4 rushing yards per game, while the pass defense ranks 7th at 218.8 passing yards per game allowed. Senior linebacker SirVocea Dennis leads the way for the Panther defense with six sacks and 66 total tackles. There is a chance for Dennis to be a real difference-maker in this matchup, as the UVA offensive line has given up 26 sacks this season, 10th in the ACC.
Pitt has three defensive backs who rank in the top ten in the ACC in passes defended. A.J. Woods is 3rd with 12 passes defended and a pick and M.J. Devonshire is 6th with nine passes defended. And then there's Erick Hallett II, who you don't want to throw anywhere near, as he is currently tied for 2nd in the ACC with three interceptions this season. Brennan Armstrong has had a problem with picks this year, throwing 10 interceptions, the most of any ACC quarterback. It will be interesting to see how UVA's receivers - whoever ends up playing - fare against Pitt's secondary and if Armstrong can avoid the costly turnovers.
Pittsburgh has the 4th-best defense in the ACC in terms of total defense, but the Panthers give up 25.8 points per game, which ranks 10th in the conference. Part of that discrepancy can be explained by Pitt's struggles in the red zone. The Panthers have given up points on 29 of their opponents' 33 trips to the red zone, including 19 touchdowns. Virginia has struggled to finish drives with points all season long and that is the main reason why UVA's decent yardage numbers haven't translated to the scoreboard. But, the Cavaliers showed vast improvement in that area last time out, scoring touchdowns on each of their four trips to the red zone against UNC. The red zone will be a key factor when Virginia has the ball.
Prediction
Virginia had a breakthrough last week offensively against North Carolina, but this Pitt defense is quite a bit better than UNC's. This is when we'll find out if UVA's offensive progress is for real, especially in the red zone. If the Cavaliers can put a few touchdowns on the board and force the Panthers to throw the ball on offense, then they've got a chance. But the more likely scenario is that Pitt takes advantage of Virginia's mediocre run defense. With Israel Abanikanda running behind Pitt's offensive line, the Panthers could take over the game by dominating time of possession. Either way, I think points will be hard to come by in this game and Pitt will win in a defensive slugfest.
Score Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Virginia 20
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