Cavaliers Now

How Virginia Men's Lacrosse Can Make the NCAA Tournament

Aidan Baller|
Virginia Athletics

The Hoos sit in an unfamiliar place with the legendary month of May just days away. Instead of looking forward to the postseason, the Cavaliers, who sit at 6-7, are set to miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017 as things currently stand. Yet, despite the poor state of affairs in Charlottesville, there is still a path to the postseason for the Cavaliers. 

Although Virginia boasts a 6-7 record, their losses have come against some of the best teams in the country: No. 2 Maryland, No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 6 North Carolina, No. 8 Syracuse, No. 9 Ohio State, No. 12 Richmond and No. 16 Johns Hopkins. This ranking is measured according to the NCAA's RPI metric which evaluates teams based on their strength of schedule and record. Because of the Cavaliers' strenuous schedule, they have an RPI rating of 14, a ranking extremely fortuitous for a team with a losing record.

For context, there are 17 spots in the NCAA tournament, nine being at-large bids. If we assume teams with a higher RPI will win their conference tournaments, Virginia would need to claim the 10th best RPI to be seeded into the tournament. This means that Princeton (Ivy League), Maryland (Big 10), Army (Patriot League), and Richmond (Atlantic 10) would all need to win their conference tournaments. In reality, RPI is not the only factor when making the tournament. 

The other factor is the NCAA Division I Men's Lacrosse Selection Committee, which formulates the bracket and decides who makes the tournament and who does not. Virginia must make a statement in the closing stages of the season if they want to leave a mark on the committee, so how does that happen? 

It is also important to note that there is not an automatic bid for winning the ACC Tournament because there are only five teams in the ACC. Since the six team threshold to allow a conference tournament winner to receive an automatic bid isn't met, the ACC Tournament is significantly less impactful compared to every other conference tournament. Nevertheless, the ACC Tournament still gives Virginia the opportunity to knock off two top ten RPI teams, carving a potential path to the NCAA Tournament.

With one regular season game remaining, the Hoos are set to host Duke this Saturday at 3 pm. A win over the Blue Devils would propel the Cavaliers into the ACC tournament with a 1-3 conference record. Virginia would sneak in past Duke due to the head-to-head tiebreaker between the two. 

Once in the tournament, Virginia will face either Notre Dame or Syracuse in the first round, both of whom defeated the Cavaliers behind big second halves after UVA started strong. However, the Hoos proved they can limit these teams, especially the Fighting Irish, who only scored three goals in the first half. Virginia built a 5-1 lead against Syracuse before the Orange rallied and ultimately won a back-and-forth affair at Klockner 12-10. Notre Dame, meanwhile, pulled away for a 12-7 win as UVA struggled on both ends of the field in the second half. If the Cavaliers can play how they did early in those games for all 60 minutes, a revenge victory in the ACC semifinals could be possible.

The seeding scenarios are as follows:
- If Syracuse beats North Carolina on Saturday, Syracuse gets the No. 1 seed and would take on Virginia in the first round in Charlotte if the Cavaliers are able to beat Duke on Saturday.
- If North Carolina beats Syracuse on Saturday, Notre Dame gets the No. 1 seed and would take on Virginia in the first round in Charlotte if the Cavaliers are able to beat Duke on Saturday.
- Should UVA defeat Duke and win its first round matchup, the opponent in the ACC Championship Game could be one of Syracuse, Notre Dame, or North Carolina.

An ACC title would likely propel Virginia into the tournament or inject a fury into the Cavaliers for the 2026 season. 

Sticking to this season, how does this happen? What is Virginia's path to running the table?

We start with Virginia's strength, its defense. The Cavaliers are anchored by goalie Matthew Nunes and star cover defender John Schroter, who lead a unit capable of shutting down any team for extended periods throughout a game. Still, the key will be finding that extra gear to prevent these teams from those momentum-sucking scoring runs similar to the games against Maryland, Syracuse, Notre Dame, and North Carolina. The keys to this success start with Nunes finding his postseason form from 2023, which included an impressive 17-save day against Notre Dame and a 14-save outing against Georgetown. Further, the SSDM unit led by Noah Chizmar and Will Erdmann winning their matchups and preventing slides will also make it difficult for their ACC foes.

Moving to places to improve, the Virginia brand of lacrosse. For years, the Hoos under Lars Tiffany have prided themselves on fast-paced transition, a tenacious ride, and a live-or-die mentality on groundballs. It's an underdog mindset best encapsulated by the 2019 National Championship-winning team led by Ryan Conrad, Dox Aitken, Matt Moore, and Ian Laviano, who played at full speed all game long, making it a living hell for opposing teams. 

It may be the absolute last hour for this team, but even younger players such as McCabe Millon understand adversity at its finest. When Virginia trailed 10-7 headed into the fourth quarter against Johns Hopkins in the NCAA quarterfinals last season, Millon started the run with a key assist before netting the game tying goal to send the game to overtime.

Replicating those types of performances is a tall order, but when looking at a team that has struggled to win matchups and lacked confidence, grit and outworking their opponents are the best ways this team and can put together three straight wins against tough competition.

For the Hoos, the road to glory starts Saturday at 3 pm against the Duke Blue Devils at Klockner Stadium.

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Aidan Baller
AIDAN BALLER

Aidan has been writing for Virginia Cavaliers On SI since January of 2023 and covers UVA football, basketball, men's soccer, and men's lacrosse. He is from New York and is currently in his fourth year at the University of Virginia, enrolled in the M.S. in Accounting program.

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