How Would NCAA Tournament Expansion Have Impacted Virginia Tech Men's Basketball Over The Last 10 Seasons?

Lead editor Thomas Hughes gives a look at how an expanded tournament could have gone over the last 10 seasons for Virginia Tech with Bart Torvik's metrics.

Virginia Tech Athletics

The NCAA Tournament is set to radically change next season. For both the men's and women's tournaments, ESPN's Pete Thamel reported that the NCAA has "initiated the final steps" to expand the field to 76 teams ahead of the 2026-27 season.

Sources: The NCAA has initiated the final steps to expand the men’s and women’s NCAA basketball tournaments to 76 teams. The expansion is on track to be formalized in the upcoming weeks, with mid-May as the target. The 76-team tournaments begin next year. https://t.co/2ZGUjZR0uJ

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) April 28, 2026

The move would push 24 teams into the play-in round, having 12 games and 52 automatic advances into the Round of 64. Here is a look at how the 76-team expansion could have affected the Hokies — for the sake of continuity, Bart Torvik's TeamCast ratings will be used.

2016-17:

Virginia Tech (22-11, 10-8 ACC) made its first of three NCAA Tournaments under then-head coach Buzz Williams. In actuality, VIrginia Tech finished as a nine-seed — the same spot in Torvik's metrics — and drew Wisconsin in a first-round loss. Torvik's metrics slate Wisconsin as a seven-seed, meaning that in the alternate tournament, Virginia Tech could play a squad like Arkansas, Wichita State, Dayton or Rhode Island.

However, If all stays to plan, the Hokies still lose in the Round of 64.

2017-18:

Virginia Tech (21-12, 10-8 ACC) qualified for the NCAA Tournament as a eight-seed in reality, but in Torvik's metrics, they slot in as a nine-seed. The Hokies lost to Alabama in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in reality, but could draw opponents such as Nevada, Butler, Rhode Island or St. Bonaventure in Torvik's metrics. Virginia Tech could advance to the Round of 32 in that scenario, but would then likely lose to any of the one-seeds (Torvik: UVa., Villanova, Kansas, UNC (2-seed in actuality); actual NCAAT: Xavier).

If all stays to plan and no existing seedings change, the Hokies still lose in the Round of 64.

2018-19:

There is little, if any, impact. Virginia Tech finished as a four-seed in the actual bracket, the same spot Torvik's metrics have it situated at. The Hokies could draw any of UNC Greensboro, Lipscomb, Indiana, St. John's or Memphis, due to the shifting around of the bubble.

In reality, Virginia Tech (26-9, 12-6 ACC) drew Saint Louis, winning 66-52. The Hokies beat Liberty 67-58 before falling to Duke 75-73 in the Sweet 16. Virginia Tech would likely still advance to the Sweet 16 unless it drew a pod with five-seed Auburn, which lost to Virginia 63-62 in the Final Four. For the sake of continuity, I'll say Virginia Tech stays in its original pod and that it ends up still making the Sweet 16.

2019-20:

Virginia Tech is situated far outside the cutline in Torvik's metrics for the season, which placed the Hokies as the 36th team out of the tourney. In the first year under current head coach Mike Young, Virginia Tech went 16-16 (7-13 ACC) and finished tenth in the conference.

2020-21:

Torvik's metrics slot Virginia Tech — a 10-seed in reality — as one of the last four byes. In that situation, the Hokies could play one of USC, Texas Tech, BYU, LSU (eight-seed in reality) or San Diego State (seven-seed on Torvik). In reality, Virginia Tech finished with a 15-7 (9-4 ACC) record that stood at third in the ACC. The Hokies were bounced in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament by Florida, something that holds if existing seedings are unmodified.

2021-22:

Virginia Tech was guaranteed a tournament berth by way of winning the ACC championship as the seven-seed. The Hokies were an 11-seed in reality, though Torvik's metrics ranked them as nine-seed. If Virginia Tech stayed at the 11-seed, there is a roughly 50% chance that the team would be slotted into a play-in game as a result of the 76-team expansions, which force three 11-seeds into the play-in round rather than two.

The Hokies likely play any of Michigan, Iowa State, Indiana or Rutgers in the play-in round if situated at the 11-seed and draw one of Providence, Alabama, LSU or Murray State in the Round of 64. It is exceedingly unlikely that Virginia Tech would advance past the Round of 64.

2022-23:

Under Torvik's metrics, Virginia Tech is the fifth team out of the tournament (13th team out in reality under the then-68-team format). There would be a 0.5% chance of a bid, per Torvik's metrics. That season, the Hokies finished with a 19-15 (8-12) record, ranked in the top-25 for the weeks of Dec. 12 and Dec. 19. After starting 11-1, the team absorbed seven straight losses in league play but bounced back with a 7-5 record in the last 12 games of the regular season.

2023-24:

Virginia Tech would have been within earshot of a Last 12 In bid but been the ninth team out in Torvik's metrics. That season, Virginia Tech finished with a 19-15 (10-10 ACC) record, finishing eighth in the ACC and bowing out in the second round of the NIT to Ohio State (81-73 L).

2024-25:

There is no impact. Virginia Tech was listed as the 102nd team out of the tournament on Torvik's metrics and finished with a 13-19 (8-12 ACC) record.

2025-26:

Virginia Tech makes the field as one of the eight expanded teams. Torvik's metrics would have the Hokies drawing Seton Hall, a team that Tech Sideline's David Cunningham reported that Tech engaged in a "secret scrimmage" with, per Young in October 2025.

If Virginia Tech was the 12-seed, it could draw one of St. John's, Texas Tech, Wisconsin or Vanderbilt, depending on how the pool plays out. All the four- and five-seeds won their matchup, save for Wisconsin, which sustained a 83-82 loss to 12-seed High Point. The Hokies would likely bow out in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.