A Look at Virginia Tech's Remaining Win Probabilities On ESPN For Each 2025 Game Entering Week 11

The Hokies must win their last three games to be bowl-eligible.

Nov 1, 2025; Blacksburg, Va.; Louisville wide receiver Caullin Lacy (5) runs after a catch. | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Though Virginia Tech football doesn't play this week, the college football world continues chugging along, with a plethora of ACC schools duking it out this weekend.

Now that ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has been updated ahead of Week 11, here's some quick tidbits on how Virginia Tech, as a whole, stands on the index before we get to game-by-game projections.

NEW: Updated ESPN FPI after week 10 of the College Football season📈📉https://t.co/UmcIDioDEE pic.twitter.com/j7puCZajDZ

— On3 (@On3sports) November 2, 2025

Virginia Tech now ranks at No. 69 on the FPI, the same spot as last week. The Hokies' projected win-loss record now sits at 3.5-8.5, the team has an FPI rating of -1.5 and it now ranks No. 11 in the ACC. At the time of writing, which is Thursday afternoon, the Hokies' odds are as follows: 0.3% odds of claiming six wins (winning out) and 0% odds of winning the ACC title or qualifying for the College Football Playoff.

According to FPI, Virginia Tech's remaining strength of schedule ranks at No. 21, third-highest in the ACC, behind only Syracuse (No. 7) and No. 24 CFP Pittsburgh (No. 8).

Tech's Week 10 loss came against Louisville, who is ranked No. 26 in the nation on the FPI.

With that, here's the updated FPI game-by-game projections:

Tech's current record: 3-6, 2-3 ACC
Wins: Wofford (FCS) (38-6), NC State (23-21), California (42-34, 2OT)
Losses: then-No. 13 South Carolina (24-11), Vanderbilt (44-20), Old Dominion (45-26), Wake Forest (30-23), then-No. 13 Georgia Tech (35-20), then-No. 16 Louisville (28-16)

[Editor's note: The first ranking is AP Top 25 and the second is the College Football Playoff rankings.]

Game 10, at Florida State - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 19.3% chance to win (down 4%)

Florida State claimed its first ACC win of the 2025 campaign, steamrolling Wake Forest, 42-7. If the Seminoles can regain their rhythm around Boston College transfer Tommy Castellanos, they have the potential to regain their early-season form and reestablish themselves. The victory pushes the Seminoles back over a 80% win probability against the Hokies, who remain projected to end the season on a four-game losing streak.

FPI record: 3-7, 2-4 ACC

Game 11, vs. No. 18/18 Miami - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 11.3% chance to win (up 0.4%)

Virginia Tech's odds have improved ever-so-slightly following Miami's second in-conference loss to SMU, a 26-20 defeat. Though the ACC has been rocky and turbulent this season, with Virginia being the only undefeated in-conference team (and only by technicality, since its loss to NC State was not in one of its designated conference games), its overtime loss to the Mustangs clouds its Colege Football Playoff hopes. For Tech, much like its contest against Louisville, it has the potential to play spoiler in the CFP battle. Whether it actually does spoil a team's plans is yet to be determined. For now, the Hokies remain heavy underdogs against the 'Canes.

FPI record: 3-8, 2-5 ACC

Game 12, at No. 12/14 Virginia - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 19.6% chance to win (down 3.2%)

The Cavaliers are no longer just a dark-horse contender for a spot in the ACC title game. Instead, they're leading the pack 10 weeks into the college football season. Meanwhile, Tech faces an uphill battle heading into the matchup, trying to end the year on a high note amid a campaign of turbulence and change. ESPN’s FPI unsurprisingly gives the Hokies slim odds to pull off the upset over No. 12 UVa, projecting a fourth straight loss and a 3-9 finish to close the regular season.

FPI record: 3-9, 2-6 ACC

Nine days remain until Virginia Tech takes on Florida State in Tallahassee. The contest will take place on Saturday, Nov. 15 at 7:30 p.m. ET, with viewing available on the ACC Network.