SP+ Predicts Virginia Tech-Florida State Final Score

Which team does the SP+ metric favor for Saturday's showdown in Tallahassee?

Nov 1, 2025; Blacksburg, Va.; Virginia Tech safety Isaiah Cash (18) bats away the ball. | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly has released the latest update to his SP+ rankings, providing a fresh look at where programs across the country stand, in his opinion, entering Week 12. Along with the updated ratings, Connelly also projects win probabilities for each matchup on the slate.

WEEK 12 SP+ PICKS

Bama 25, OU 24 😬
Georgia 27, Texas 23
ND 32, Pitt 24
Duke 30, UVA 28
USC 29, Iowa 24
Utah 35, Baylor 22
Louisville 29, Clemson 23
Rebs 35, Gators 17
BYU 30, TCU 23

Full list: https://t.co/1UvCJdO4pY pic.twitter.com/epuSVxWH8M

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 9, 2025

First off: what is SP+? Here is how Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

Florida State (4-5, 1-5 ACC) fell four spots to No. 28 after its 24-10 loss to Clemson on Nov. 8. The Seminole's offense ranks No. 47 with a score of 31.6, its defense is No. 26 with a tally of 20.3 and its special teams sits at No. 48 with a 0.2 score. The Semioles have a cumulative total of 11.5. [Editor's note: A higher total number is better on offense; a lower total number is better on defense.]

Virginia Tech (3-6, 2-3 ACC) has a cumulative total of -4.0 and sits at No. 88, having dropped four spots from No. 84 after its 28-16 loss to then-No. 16 Louisville and its bye week. The Hokies' offense ranks at No. 79 (down one spot from Week 10) with a score of 25.4, its defense sits at No. 88 (no change in ranking) with a score of 29.3 and its special teams ranks at No. 76 (down 18 spots) with a tally of 0.0.

Connelly's metrics predict a 36-18 victory for Florida State, give the Hokies a 13% chance of claiming the victory and favor the Seminoles by 18 points. Connelly's over/under is set at 54.5; his pick is under and his against-the-spread pick is Florida State.

Connelly's SP+ margin is contrary to ESPN BET's, which currently lists the Hokies as 13.5-point underdogs as of Thursday morning.

Virginia Tech will contest the Seminoles in Tallahassee, Florida on Saturday, Nov. 15 at 7:30 p.m. ET, with viewing available on the ACC Network.

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