SP+ Projects Final Score for Virginia Tech Football vs. SMU
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Virginia Tech football heads southwest this week to take on SMU in Dallas, Texas, on Friday, Nov. 6, in the first matchup between the two teams since 1974.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 772, WEEK 10
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 2, 2026
Georgia -130 Sewanee
Wake Forest -65 Lake Forest
Harding -1 UTEP
SIU -1 NIU
Judson scored 22 points and SURGED to No. 769. After a 56-7 loss to No. 536, Hilbert is BACK on the No. 772 throne!
Full list: https://t.co/015y0PR3lO pic.twitter.com/SxHqfokHrG
SMU ranks No. 25 in the SP+ metrics, fourth in the ACC behind Miami (No. 5), Wake Forest (No. 16) and Louisville (No. 22). Virginia Tech is seventh behind those four schools, Pitt (No. 38) and Duke (No. 40).
Connelly's metrics favor SMU by 6.9 points for Friday's game, giving Virginia Tech a 33% probability of pulling off the win. The projected final score is 31-24, with the against-the-spread pick — the spread is SMU -6.5 — being the Mustangs.
SMU (6-2, 4-2 ACC) fell out of the AP Top 25 rankings after a 30-27 upset loss to Syracuse at the Carrier Dome. The Mustangs had previously won six of their first seven games to open 2026, with the lone defeat being a 41-31 loss to then-No. 23 Louisville on the road. That stretch included a 59-20 blowout victory over California where the Mustangs nearly doubled the Golden Bears in first downs (31-16). SMU garnered 27 points in the Week 10 poll, putting it in 29th place. Virginia Tech was one place behind with 12 points.
The Hokies (6-2, 3-2) became bowl-eligible with their 20-16 win over Clemson, their first against the Tigers since 2007. Virginia Tech opened its season with four straight wins for the first time since 2017, beating VMI (73-3), Old Dominion (44-21), Maryland (35-26) and Boston College (21-14) before their first loss came against Pitt (35-33) on Oct. 2.
Against the Panthers, Virginia Tech quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer compiled a career-high 434 passing yards but threw two interceptions. The Hokies finished with a minus-4 turnover differential, and despite rallying with a nine-point run, fifth-year kicker John Love's 36-yard game-deciding field goal attempt was ruled no good.
Virginia Tech lost the following week in Berkeley, scoring a season-low 20 points in a five-point loss to Cal. However, the Hokies bounced back with consecutive wins over Georgia Tech (34-24) and Clemson (20-16) to become bowl-eligible with four games left in the regular season.
As the Hokies and Mustangs both have two conference losses, the loser will be out of contention for the ACC Championship game Dec. 5 unless the second-place team holds three losses in league play.
After Virginia Tech, SMU plays No. 14 Wake Forest, No. 4 Notre Dame (non-conference; the Irish are independent in football but are ACC members in most other sports) and Stanford to close the regular season. Following SMU, the Hokies will play Stanford, Miami and Virginia to close their 2026 regular season.
Virginia Tech's clash against the Mustangs on Nov. 6 is set for a 7 p.m. ET kickoff with coverage on ESPN.
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Hughes serves as Virginia Tech On SI's lead editor, a position that he has held since July 2025. Hughes is a junior at Virginia Tech majoring in sports media and analytics. He also serves as the open-wheel correspondent for the motorsports outlet Steering Wheel Nation, where he has written on Formula 1, the NTT IndyCar Series, the NASCAR Cup Series and the NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series. Hughes has previously authored bylines in 3304 Sports, Virginia Tech's multimedia student journalism outlet.
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