What Does ESPN's FPI Predict for Virginia Tech’s Remaining 2025 Games After Vanderbilt Loss?

Following Week 2 of the season, Virginia Tech football has found itself in an 0-2 hole, the first time it has started the season with two straight losses since 2010.

FINAL: Vandy 44 | VT 20#ThisIsHome | #TeamOverMe
— Virginia Tech Football (@HokiesFB) September 7, 2025

Now that ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has been updated ahead of Week 3, here's some quick tidbits on how Tech, as a whole, stands on the index before we get to game-by-game projections.

Virginia Tech now ranks at No. 60 on the projected chart, 23 spots below last week's No. 37 ranking. with their projected record now sitting at 5.1-6.9. At the time of writing, which is Monday afternoon, the Hokies' odds are as follows: 37% odds of claiming six wins, 1% odds of winning the ACC title, 0.5% odds of qualifying for the College Football] Playoff and 0% odds of qualifying for the National Championship game.

Tech's Week 2 loss came at the hands of Vanderbilt, who was ranked No. 44 on ESPN's FPI entering the contest and has since ascended to No. 28 following its 44-20 evisceration of the Hokies.

With that, here's the updated FPI game-by-game projections.

Game 3, vs. Old Dominion - FPI gives Virginia Tech an 65.6% chance to win (down 17.4%)

Following a game against Vanderbilt in which the Hokies were favored at 63% and subsequently lost, their odds for this coming week against the Old Dominion Monarchs have plummeted. Despite the Monarchs being a Sun Belt Conference opponent, losing to them Saturday wouldn't be the first time under head coach Brent Pry's tenure that the Hokies have lost to Old Dominion. In 2022, Virginia Tech dropped its season opener, 20-17, in Norfolk in Pry's first game as a collegiate head coach. However, FPI still projects the Hokies to capture their first victory of the 2025 campaign. Should Virginia Tech lose, it will mark the first occasion since 1987 that it has started the season with three consecutive losses.

FPI Record: 1-2

Game 4, vs. Wofford - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 98.1% chance to win (down 0.8%)

This is the one game that has not dramatically shifted. Like last week, the change here is almost negligible.

FPI Record: 2-2

Game 5, at NC State - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 43.5% chance to win (down 17.4%)

This is one of two games that has now flipped against the Hokies, alongside Week 9 against Louisville. Virginia Tech's advantage has swung right the other way. Last week, the Hokies possessed a 60.9% chance, per ESPN's FPI. This week projects them to drop their first ACC contest of 2025 and drops them back below .500.

FPI Record: 2-3, 0-1 ACC

Sep 6, 2025; Raleigh, N.C.; NC State quarterback CJ Bailey (11) celebrates a touchdown against Virginia. | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Game 6, vs. Wake Forest - FPI gives Virginia Tech an 81.7% chance to win (down 7.5%)

Virginia Tech remains a heavy favorite against Wake Forest, with ESPN’s FPI giving the Hokies their second-best odds of victory among the team’s remaining 2025 matchups. Only one other game on the schedule projects as more favorable: Wofford. Tech claimed a relatively ho-hum victory over the Demon Deacons last year and this should be a relatively easy contest relative to the rest of the Hokies' 2025 schedule.

FPI Record: 3-3, 1-1 ACC

Game 7, at Georgia Tech - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 22% chance to win (down 14.1%)

At the time of writing, Virginia Tech's contest against the Yellow Jackets provides it with the lowest odds to win, narrowly ahead of 24.2% against Florida State and 26.9% against Miami. Smply put, the odds for Georgia Tech are slim at best and in the event that Haynes

FPI Record: 3-4, 1-2 ACC

Game 8, vs. California - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 69% chance to win (down 8.9%)

As of right now, California projects as the Hokies' third-most likely game to win, sitting right under 70%. Nonetheless, Cal remains no pushover, and even slight dips in FPI percentages can signal intriguing shifts in the expected balance of power. After all, a week ago , the Hokies were slotted to finish with a 7-5 record solely off FPI. This time around, the win projection is now at five wins and taking sub-50% odds of victory as a defeat and over 50% odds as a victory, that slots Virginia Tech at only four wins, with this contest marking its final victory of the year.

FPI Record: 4-4, 2-2 ACC

Game 9, vs. Louisville - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 43.2% chance to win (down 15.3%)

Alongside NC State, this is the second game on Virginia Tech's schedule that has flipped the other way. Louisville triumphed over Western Kentucky and James Madison to start the year. In a pair of games, thus far, signal-caller Miller Moss has thrown for 374 passing yards and has appeared solid to begin the 2025 campaign. In the FPI projections here, the Hokies absorb their first of four straight losses.

FPI Record: 4-5, 2-3 ACC

Game 10, at Florida State - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 24.2% chance to win (down 23%)

In the preseason, it was believed that Virginia Tech football was roughly comparable to the Seminoles. That is no longer the case. Florida State has had a torrid start to the year, taking down then-No. 8 Alabama, 31-17, before steamrolling East Texas A&M, 77-3. Surprisingly, at this point in the campaign, the Seminoles possess stronger odds of defeating the Hokies than Miami, another Florida-based ACC squad.

FPI Record: 4-6, 2-4 ACC

Game 11, vs. Miami - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 26.9% chance to win (down 9.1%)

With Virginia Tech looking increasingly unlikely to avenge its 38-34 overturned Hail Mary defeat from 2024, the matchup with Miami looms as one of the toughest hurdles on the Hokies’ schedule. ESPN’s FPI now projects just a 26.9% chance for Tech to pull off the upset, a sharp 9.1% drop from earlier forecasts. The Hurricanes are now led by Georgia transfer Carson Beck, who looks to be playing at or near his apex and playing them late in the season only adds to the challenge. For Brent Pry’s squad, stealing a result here could define the year, but the odds remain stacked against them.

FPI Record: 4-7, 2-5 ACC

Game 12, vs. Virginia - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 34.5% chance to win (down 14.7%)

If Virginia Tech finishes with the record currently projected by FPI — counting games with greater than a 50% win probability as victories and those below that threshold as losses — it would mark Brent Pry’s second-worst season at the helm. The only campaign with fewer wins came in his 2022 debut, when the Hokies stumbled to a 3-8 finish.

FPI Record: 4-8, 2-6 ACC