Duke vs Iowa Prediction: ACC Basketball Pick of the Day
No. 15 Duke (8-2) is set to take on Iowa (6-1) n the Jimmy V Classic in Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night.
Gameday Info
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN
Line: Duke -3
Moneyline: Duke -150, Iowa +130
Total: 146.5
Duke Overview
Last three games:
Dec. 3: 75-59 W vs Boston College
Nov. 30: 81-72 W vs No. 25 Ohio State
Nov. 27: 75-56 L vs No. 5 Purdue
After looking out of sync in the loss to Purdue — Duke hit just two of their 19 three-pointers — the Blue Devils hit their stride in solid wins over two ranked teams. Freshman Kyle Filipowski, who has won four-straight ACC Rookie of the Week awards, led the team with a combined 29 points in the two games.
Fellow first-year Dereck Lively II seemed to finally get comfortable on the court. In his first seven-career games as a Blue Devil, Lively scored 19 points on 9-16 FGs. In the team’s past two wins, he doubled his scoring with 19 total points on 8-10 FGs.
With junior guard Jeremy Roach running the offense as the primary ball handler, the Blue Devils flow through him and into the paint. Their size on the inside allows them to dominate the opponent — Duke scored 72 total paint points over the past two games.
Iowa Overview
Last three games:
Nov. 29: 81-65 W vs Georgia Tech
Nov. 26: 79-66 L vs No. 24 TCU
Nov. 25: 74-71 W vs Clemson
In last Tuesday’s win against Georgia Tech, junior forward Kris Murray exploded for 31 points.
Regardless, it wasn’t a particularly inspiring shooting game for the Hawkeyes, who hit 45% of their field goals and 34.6% from behind the three-point line. Even more worrisome, Iowa missed 13 of their 31 free throws.
In the matchup with the Yellow Jackets, Iowa proved to be vulnerable in the post. Georgia Tech was able to move up the court quickly in transition, put the ball in the paint and back the Hawkeyes all the way down to the bucket. The Yellow Jackets scored 34 of their 65 points in the paint.
Prediction
Iowa has performed far better against the spread this season — 5-2 to Duke’s 5-5 — but I see that trend shifting on Tuesday night.
KenPom has Iowa as the third best offensive team in the nation - this team can score the ball efficiently. Coach Fran McCaffery's system lends to playing with pace and spreading the floor with plenty of shooters. The Hawkeyes pose a challenge for this young Duke team, but the Blue Devils have the upper hand in the size and athleticism departments. They have the length and physicality to make it difficult for Murray and co. to move off the ball and get to their spots off the bounce.
Offensively, Duke has looked great as of late outside of the Purdue loss. Jon Scheyer's group has the 17th best offense in the nation via KenPom - and top recruits Lively and Whitehead haven't even hit their stride yet. The Hawkeyes lost 79-66 to the best team they've played so far this season - TCU - and Duke has the roster to put on a similar showing.
Iowa takes great care of the ball (9.3 turnovers per game) and Murray will arguably be the best college basketball player on the floor in this one, but this Duke team is so talented they have the ability to overwhelm most opponents they face. The Blue Devils will make things difficult for this explosive offense, and come away with a statement victory on a neutral floor.
The Pick: Duke -3
Score Prediction: Duke 74, Iowa 63
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