Keys to the Game: Wake Forest Basketball vs NC State
Wake Forest will look to bounce back from consecutive losses on Saturday as the NC State Wolfpack come to the Joel for a Big 4 matchup. NC State has won four of their last five and are coming off a three-point home win over Notre Dame — here are a few keys that could help the Deacs right the ship.
Force the guards to take tough shots
NC State is the highest-scoring team in the ACC, averaging an impressive 79.3 points per contest through 21 games. Their guard trio is the driving force behind their offensive dominance — Casey Morsell, Terquavion Smith and Jarkell Joiner combine for 48.2 points per contest. Wake Forest will have to limit their production in order to notch their seventh ACC win of the season.
These guards — especially Smith — love to attack the rim in transition and off the high pick and roll. Steve Forbes discussed after the Pitt game Wake’s need to clean up their pick and roll defense after getting lit up by the Panthers. The Demon Deacons will need to place an emphasis on keeping the shifty Wolfpack guards in front of them, forcing them to take long jump shots or give the ball up to some of their less prolific scorers. Joiner and Smith both shoot about 33% from three this season — but they love to let it fly, and often do so off the dribble and at the beginning of possessions. They can make these shots of course, but it’s important to challenge these attempts well, and not let them get clean looks.
Morsell, however, is an outstanding three-point shooter — he’s connected on 52 of his 117 three-point attempts this year (44%) and is solid off the catch and shoot. Against Pitt, the Panthers’ guards excelled at penetrating into the lane and dishing it out to the open man on the perimeter, finishing the game with 22 team assists on 28 field goals. Wake’s on-ball defense will need to take a jump up come Saturday.
Force DJ Burns to guard in space
Senior forward DJ Burns is a load in the post, clocking in at 6-9 and 275 pounds. Burns is an efficient scorer (10.5 ppg, 55% FG) and one of the team’s leading rebounders (4.6 rpg), but his large frame restricts his mobility.
Burns’ lack of agility could play to Wake Forest’s advantage. If the Deacs can spread the floor and force Burns to venture out to the perimeter to guard an Andrew Carr or a Bobi Klintman, I like Wake’s chances to beat Burns off the bounce and create some quality looks near the rim. I could see Steve Forbes breaking out the small ball lineup and playing Carr at the five to exploit that mismatch on the perimeter.
Burns could also be vulnerable in the pick and roll — if Wake can get Burns switched onto the primary ball handler like Appleby or Hildreth, either of those two will be able to blow past him and either create shots for themselves or kick out to the open man on the outside when the help arrives. Usually Kevin Keatts has Burns drop back in coverage, but the nifty Appleby can exploit that by creating a look for himself off the dribble.
NC State’s starting big man from the beginning of the season, Dusan Mahorcic, suffered an injury back in December and is out for the season. Burns and Ebenezer Dowuona are the main guys at the five spot, and bring very different things to the table. Burns is excellent as a low post scorer and passer, while Dowuona is an athletic rim protector. Wake has different looks at the five spot with prototypical centers Matthew Marsh or Davion Bradford, as well as Carr in a small ball look. Wake’s offense has the potential to expose Burns defensively, and forcing him to the bench will make the Wolfpack easier to guard.
Take care of the ball
This NC State team forces a lot of turnovers and plays with active hands, forcing 8.6 steals and an ACC-best 14.6 cough-ups per contest. Tyree Appleby has gotten loose with the ball at times this season — he turned it over eight times against Duke and averages just over three turnovers per game. This isn’t uncommon for a player who has the ball in his hands as much as Appleby does, but he’ll need to have a clean game in order to help boost the Demon Deacons to victory.
Conversely, NC State is also great at taking care of the ball themselves, boasting the best turnover margin in the ACC (4.19). This team isn’t mistake-prone, and it’s part of the reason their offense is so efficient. Wake will have their work cut out for them trying to stop the Wolfpack on defense.
Wake Forest has done well taking care of the rock over their last two games, as they turned it over nine times against Virginia and just seven against Pitt. These marks are both well below the Deacs’ season average of 12.2 TOs per contest. The recent improvement in this area will need to continue Saturday afternoon against a hungry NC State group.
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