Wake Forest vs NC State: Preview and Prediction
Wake Forest hosts rival North Carolina State on Saturday afternoon, looking to end a two-game skid.
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 1 p.m. ET
TV: ACCN
Spread: Wake Forest -2.5
Total: 154
NC State Team Overview:
Record: 16-5 (6-4)
KenPom: 48th (46th Offensive, 61st Defensive)
Recent Games: W 85-82 vs Notre Dame, L 80-69 at North Carolina, W 78-66 at Georgia Tech
Leading Scorers:
So. G Terquavion Smith (18.6 ppg, 4.6 ast, 1.8 stl)
Gr. G Jarkel Joiner (16.8 ppg, 4.6 reb, 3.3 ast)
Sr. G Casey Morsell (12.8 ppg, 4.6 reb, 44.4 3PT%)
Kevin Keatts’ Wolfpack have been playing great ball lately. They are winners of eight of their last ten games, and five of their last six. The most recent loss came in the Dean Dome against rival North Carolina, where the Wolfpack fell by double digits, and star player Terquavion Smith suffered a scary fall that forced him out of the game. Smith turned out to be alright, and played on Tuesday in NC State’s close home win over Notre Dame.
Smith is the highest scoring player in the ACC this season, spearheading arguably the most potent backcourt in the conference. Alongside Smith is Ole Miss graduate transfer Jarkel Joiner, who is sixth in the league in scoring. The sharpshooting Casey Morsell helps form a lethal three-headed monster. His 44.4% mark from long distance makes him the most accurate marksman in the league.
Smith is a volume scorer, but he’s thrived in that role for the Wolfpack. He scored 20+ in five-straight games earlier this month, but he only scored 12 before his early exit last Saturday, and shot a rough 2-14 from the field against the Irish on Tuesday. Joiner is coming off of a 28-point gem against Notre Dame, and is averaging 19.7 per game over his last six. He’s also connected on 26-straight free-throw attempts. Morsell hasn’t been letting it fly as much lately, but continues to be a key piece for this team. He’s played 35+ minutes in seven-straight games, knocking down multiple threes in five of those.
As well as this backcourt can score the ball, their biggest strength is arguably their ball security. NC State is 9th in the country in fewest turnovers per game at 10.1, which contributes to a conference leading turnover margin at +4.2. Virginia is the only other team in the ACC that can boast a margin over +2.
Keatts’ coaching performance this season is quite impressive, especially considering two of his opening day starters, Jack Clark and Dusan Mahorcic, have missed significant time due to injury. DJ Burns, Ernest Ross, Greg Gantt and Ebenezer Dowuona have been forced into more minutes, and they all have filled in quite admirably.
Burns has really hit a groove in the month of January, and while limited defensively, is quite the force on the offensive end. He’s shooting 55.2% from the field on the season, and has made five or more field goals in eight of his last nine contests.
NC State has been strong on the glass this season — their 11.3 offensive rebounds per game ranks third in the league. Defensively, they give up a lot of points often due to their pace of play, but they earn their living disrupting opponents. State leads the league in steals (8.6) and ranks third in blocks (4.78) per game.
Wake Forest Team Overview:
Record: 14-7 (6-4)
KenPom: 76th (29th Offensive, 162nd Defensive)
Recent Games: L 81-79 at Pitt, L 76-67 vs Virginia, W 87-77 vs Clemson
Leading scorers:
Gr. G Tyree Appleby (17.9 ppg, 6.0 ast, 1.8 stl, 40.2 3PT%)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (13.3 ppg, 6.4 reb, 2.9 ast)
Jr. G Damari Monsanto (12.7 ppg, 3.4 reb, 41.1 3PT%)
Wake Forest is on a two-game losing streak, which was preceded by a stretch where they won six of seven contests. Over the last two losses, at home to Virginia and at Pittsburgh, Steve Forbes’ group struggled to defend the three-point line, and were lit up from distance.
Wake trailed by as much as 19 early on against Virginia, cutting the lead to just one in the second half, but Virginia held solid and never surrendered the lead. Pitt also got off to a hot start, leading by as many as 15 in the first half. Wake Forest clawed back once again, even taking the lead in the second half, but Tyree Appleby’s game-winning three-point attempt clanged off the rim.
The Cavaliers drilled 15-34 (44%) three-pointers and only turned the ball over seven times, while Pitt connected on 18-37 (49%) from range, a program-record. Too many of these makes came on wide open looks, and Wake really struggled to guard for stretches of these last two games.
Appleby is in a bit of a shooting slump over the last two weeks. The ACC’s fourth leading scorer is shooting 36% from the field and 26% from deep over his last five games. The Florida transfer is averaging 6.8 assists per game across that stretch in 39 minutes per game. Forbes is reluctant to field a lineup without Appleby in it, which is why he is second in the conference in minutes during league play.
Cameron Hildreth has been on quite the tear in the month of January, averaging 18.3 points and 6.7 rebounds per game across his last six. Damari Monsanto followed up his 25-point performance against UVA with nine points in just 13 minutes, because of foul trouble. The league leader in three-pointers made in ACC play will look to get back on track on his home floor in this one.
Andrew Carr has elevated his play as of late too, and remains one of Wake’s most important pieces, being by far the most proficient big man Forbes’ has on the offensive end of the floor. Carr averaged 16.5 points per game across the four game win streak earlier this month, but in these two recent losses that number was 10.5.
Fifth-year guard Daivien Williamson nailed four triples on his way to 14 points off the bench in the loss to Pitt, his highest scoring output since the second game of the season.
According to KenPom, during ACC play Wake is 11th in the league in adjusted defensive efficiency, while holding the top spot offensively.
Prediction:
This is a crucial spot for Wake Forest to get a win on their home court, where they are 10-1 on the season, and I expect them to come through here. These teams play at the two highest tempos in the league, and evidenced by the Vegas total, this game should be a high scoring track meet. After falling victim to teams lighting it up from distance in these last two losses, Wake Forest should be locked in defensively, focused on running Smith/Joiner/Morsell off of the three-point line.
NC State has given up 80 or more points in three of their last four games, the only team not reaching that number being lowly Georgia Tech. This elite Demon Deacons offense should cross that threshold as well. This feels like a can't lose spot for the home team here, and I'm expecting Wake to get it done by grinding out some crucial stops, and going on to outscore the Wolfpack.
The Pick: Wake Forest -2.5
Score Prediction: Wake Forest 83 NC State 76
Season prediction record
11-10 ATS
16-5 Straight up
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