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Wake Forest vs Virginia: Preview and Prediction

Wake looks to beat UVA for the second straight season

The No. 10 Virginia Cavaliers visit Winston-Salem to take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons Saturday afternoon. 

Gameday Info:

Tipoff: 2 p.m. ET

TV: ESPNU

Spread: Virginia -3

Moneyline: Wake Forest +130, Virginia -150

Total: 136.5

Virginia Team Overview:

Record: 14-3 (6-2)

KenPom: 11th (24th Offensive, 23rd Defensive)

Recent Games: W 78-68 vs Virginia Tech, W 67-58 at Florida State, W 65-58 vs North Carolina

Leading scorers:

Sr. G Armaan Franklin (12.1 ppg, 4.3 reb, 41.2 3PT%)
Sr. G Kihei Clark (11.5 ppg, 5.9 ast, 1.4 stl)
Sr. F Jayden Gardner (10.4 ppg, 4.8 reb, 52.6 FG%)

Winners of four in a row and six of their last seven, Virginia has hit a rhythm in conference play. It's a typical Tony Bennett squad, playing disciplined, defensive minded basketball at one of the slowest tempos in the country. As seen by the KenPom rankings, this year's team is strong defensively, but their offense ranks equally as high.

Virginia is allowing 59.9 points per game on average, which ranks 12th in the entire country. They also excel at taking care of the ball on offense, their 9.2 turnovers per game is 4th best in the country. But the added factor that takes this team to the next level is that they are shooting 38.2% from long range on the season, which is 24th in the country.

Virginia is coming off of a 10-point win at home on Wednesday over their reeling rival, the Virginia Tech Hokies (losers of six in a row). All five of UVA's starters scored in double figures, led by Kihei Clark's 20 point and five assist performance. 

Before that game, Virginia handled Florida State on the road and took down North Carolina at home. Against the Tar Heels, the Cavaliers lucked out when Armando Bacot was forced out of the game with an injury in the opening minutes. 

Bennett has experimented with his rotation throughout this season, but he seems to have really found something with his recent shift to a smaller lineup. 6'11" big man Kadin Shedrick, who has started 14 games this year, has been delegated to the bench and was a complete non factor in the last two wins. He was only on the court for a combined nine minutes in the wins over Virginia Tech and Florida State. 

He's been replaced in the starting lineup by Ohio transfer Ben Vander Plas, a stretch forward who has knocked down multiple triples in four straight games. Starting Vander Plas and Jayden Gardner as the bigs has made things flow better offensively, and the strong defensive play has not been sacrificed as a result. Another change to the lineup has been the uptick in minutes for 6'8" freshman guard Ryan Dunn. He played 25 minutes against Virginia Tech, his season high outside of a 50-point blowout win over Monmouth in November.

Wake Forest Team Overview:

Record: 14-5 (6-2)

KenPom: 73rd (31st Offensive, 140th Defensive)

Recent Games: W 87-77 vs Clemson, W 85-63 at Boston College W 90-75 vs Florida State, 

Leading scorers:

Gr. G Tyree Appleby (18.1 ppg, 6.1 ast, 1.8 stl, 42.6 3PT%)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (13.1 ppg, 6.3 reb, 2.9 ast)
Jr. G Damari Monsanto (12.0 ppg, 3.4 reb, 40.5 3PT%)

Wake Forest enters this contest in the exact same form as Virginia — winners of four in a row and six of their last seven. The Deacs are coming off an impressive home win on Tuesday over the first place Clemson Tigers - who were without starting point guard Chase Hunter. 

Three of their six ACC wins have came against teams with losing records on the year (Louisville, Florida State, and Boston College), and the other three came against teams missing a key player (Duke, Virginia Tech, and Clemson). While the favorable schedule has provided some lucky breaks, it's undeniable that this team is playing at a very high level right now. 

Steve Forbes has once again shown his ability to implement his offensive system and put his players in positions to succeed. Over their last seven games, Wake Forest is averaging an elite 82.7 points per game. On the year, the Deacs are making 9.2 three-pointers per game, which leads the ACC and ranks 25th in Division I.

The recent offensive surge can mainly be attributed to the emergence of a consistent and balanced core of scorers. Tyree Appleby has been playing like an ACC Player of the Year candidate all season long. He scored 24 points, dished out seven assists, and recorded five steals in the win over Clemson. The electric Appleby has turned in seven straight games of seven or more assists. 

Cameron Hildreth is putting together a strong case in being the Most Improved Player in the ACC — averaging 19.8 points across the current four game win streak. He's done a bit of everything on this stretch — also averaging 6.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 2.3 steals per game. Damari Monsanto scored 17 against Clemson, a number that he has hit or surpassed in five of his last eight contests. His 2.9 three-pointers per game ranks third in the ACC.

The biggest boost as of late has to be the play of Delaware transfer Andrew Carr. He's been great defensively throughout this year, but offensively he's made a big jump as of late. Over his last three games, he's averaging 20.3 points per game on 69.4% shooting.

Defensively is where this team is weak, but it hasn't been a problem lately with the way they have been scoring. Granted, the Deacs are 13th in the ACC in two-point percentage defense, allowing opponents to score on 52.5% of their attempts in side the arc. Only lowly Louisville and Notre Dame are worse.


Prediction:

This is the game I've had the toughest time picking a side on all season. It's a really interesting matchup, especially with Bennett's newly committed shift to small ball. It'll be interesting to see how Forbes responds. 

Matthew Marsh will definitely start this game, but how much he will end up playing is up in the air. Maybe the dunking machine will hold his own defensively and find success on the interior offensively with his size advantage. But the way Virginia can space the floor with this lineup, it seems like this will be the type of game where Carr will absorb a lot of minutes at the five spot, Expect an uptick in Bobi Klintman minutes as well, for his defensive versatility will be quite valuable against Virginia's smaller, quicker bigs.

This is each team's toughest test in a couple of weeks. It's a pivotal game in the scope of the ACC standings as well. All this being said, I can't turn down getting points with this Wake Forest team that is undefeated at home and scoring so effectively right now.

Having talented shot creating guards is the way to score on this tough Virginia defense, and Wake has three of those in Appleby, Hildreth, and Monsanto. This Virginia team is also playing well offensively right now, but this is still a group that scored just 55 points against James Madison and didn't hit 70 against North Carolina or Florida State. I'm taking the Demon Deacons to win a close one outright, but I'll take the points just in case.

The Pick: Wake Forest +3

Score Prediction:

Season prediction record

10-9 ATS

15-4 Straight up

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