West Virginia Basketball - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
West Virginia's flashed throughout the 2021 season. They boast a 11-1 record through 12 games. They own impressive wins over Clemson on a neutral court, UConn at home, and UAB on the road. Their only loss comes on a neutral court to Marquette, who’s enjoyed a solid season thus far.
Although they boast an outstanding record with some solid wins, it hasn’t all been great for the Mountaineers. They are about to see a massive step-up in competition as Big 12 conference play starts, and they’ll need to sure-up a few different areas to find consistent success.
Overall, here’s the good, the bad, and the ugly from West Virginia in 2021 thus far.
The Good
Good doesn’t quite describe the season Taz Sherman’s having at this point. He’s locked into massive minutes for the Mountaineers, playing nearly 85% of the minutes thus far. He leads the team in true shooting percentage (55.6%), assist rate (20%), fouls drawn per 40 (6.4), and free throw percentage (77.9%). Overall, Sherman currently ranks as KemPom’s 10th best player in the country.
He’s averaging 20.9 points per game, scoring 17+ points in 10 of his 12 games. Sherman isn’t only contributing offensively, though. He’s posted at least 1 steal in 10 of his 12 games, and he’s averaging 1.6 steals per game on the season.
Speaking of turnovers, West Virginia as a team has been elite on the season. They rank fourth in the NCAA in turnover percentage (27.2%). They’ve created turnovers in multiple ways as well. Through 11 games, they rank 24th in the country in steal percentage (13%) and fifth in non-steal turnover percentage (14.2%).
The Bad
West Virginia’s struggled defensively in the paint this season. They rank 325th in offensive rebounding percentage allowed, giving up a 33.9% offensive rebounding rate. Struggling with offensive rebounds oftentimes gives opponents easy looks in the paint. It’s a key factor as to why the Mountaineers are allowing their opponents to shoot 50.7% from inside the arc.
When looking at some of their toughest games, West Virginia allowed 13 offensive rebounds to both UConn and UAB. Those teams shot 54.3% and 51.3% from inside the arc in those games. Although the Mountaineers were able to win each of those games, these issues could be the difference between wins and losses in conference play.
The Ugly
West Virginia’s biggest concerns are on offense. They’ve struggled with shooting, ranking 276th in three-point percentage (30.4%) and 351st in free throw percentage (60.6%).
The Mountaineers only have one player shooting above 75% from the line this season. They also only have two players shooting above 61%. Furthermore, They don’t have a single player shooting above 35% from deep in 2021.
Although this is the worst part of their game, there’s reason to believe it could get better throughout the season. Malik Curry is currently shooting only 52.2% from the line this season, but he shot 85.2% last season. Jalen Bridges shot over 10% higher at the charity stripe last season as well. Even Gabe Osabuohien should see positive regression in this area, as he’s shooting only 28% from the free throw line this season.
West Virginia’s in a similar situation with their three-point shooting. Sean McNeil shot 38.8% from deep in 2020, but that number’s dipped to 32.1% this season. Taz Sherman and Jalen Bridges are due for positive regression as well.
Conclusion
The Mountaineers have enjoyed an outstanding start to the season, as they have a few great wins and no bad losses. There are areas that they need to improve in if they want to stay competitive in the Big 12 during conference play, though.
I don’t necessarily know if West Virginia’s defensive rebounding will get better throughout the season, which is a major concern. With that being said, I do expect positive offensive regression, specifically in terms of free throw and three-point shooting.
West Virginia’s only projected to win 5 of their final 19 games via KenPom, but I expect them to beat that number to close out the season.
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