What a Realistic, Disappointing, & Dream 2021 Season Looks Like for WVU
This fall will be Neal Brown's third season as the head coach at West Virginia and after going 11-11 in his first two seasons, the expectation is that the Mountaineers are set to make a big jump in 2021.
In Brown's first year at Troy, he went 4-8 but quickly turned things around in year two posting 10 wins and then 11 wins in year three. In year one at WVU, Brown went 5-7 and followed that up with a 6-4 record in 2020 due to an abbreviated season. Rebuilding a Power Five program isn't quite as easy and oftentimes takes three to four years to really begin to see the results that everyone hopes for.
Although the Mountaineers dropped four games a year ago, they could have very easily finished 8-2. The losses to Texas and Texas Tech were by a combined eleven points. WVU coughed up the football in the 4th quarter against Texas Tech and was returned for a Red Raiders touchdown which ended up being the game-winner. The loss to Texas was a hard one to swallow considering the amount of chances WVU had to win that game. Neal Brown went for it on 4th down three times and failed to convert a single one. Hindsight is 20/20 but had he chosen to kick field goals, the outcome of that game may have been different.
Nonetheless, WVU made major strides in year two under Brown as they finished with one of the nation's best defenses including the No. 1 passing defense. On the offensive side, Leddie Brown rushed for 1,010 yards which was a major improvement for a running game that was ranked one of the worst in the country in 2019.
West Virginia essentially returns all of their production on offense, has a more seasoned offensive line, and will return six starters (seven if you count Akheem Mesidor) on the defensive side of the ball. This is the most experience and depth Neal Brown has had on the roster since taking the job in 2019, so is this the year the Mountaineers begin to contend for a Big 12 championship?
To break it all down, I listed what a dream season, realistic season, and disappointing season would look like for WVU in 2021.
Dream
It's only year three for Neal Brown and his staff so the expectations should still be fairly reasonable. Reaching the Big 12 Conference championship or finishing within the top three of the league would be deemed a dream season for WVU. This would indicate that the Mountaineers are ahead of schedule and could be legitimate players for the Big 12 sooner rather than later. Winning somewhere in the ballpark of 8-10 games is certainly a possibility but it won't come easy. If West Virginia were to finish in the top three, that would mean they have to do well against Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Texas, and of course, Oklahoma. A top-three finish would be extremely satisfying for WVU fans, I would imagine.
Realistic
Aside from the team's home opener against Long Island and Big 12 cellar dweller Kansas, there are no cupcakes or gimmes on the schedule. Maryland and Virginia Tech make for a challenging non-conference schedule and then you open up conference play with Oklahoma. It doesn't seem like much of an improvement but winning seven games is what should be expected of WVU. I haven't done a full dive into predicting the schedule just yet but I'm going to guess it's going to be somewhere between 6-8 wins. Quarterback play is going to be what makes/breaks this team in 2021. If Jarret Doege elevates his game and makes better decisions, things could turn out better than expected and that's where the dream scenario starts coming into play. If what we saw last year is what we get in 2021, then I would be shocked to see the Mountaineers get over seven wins.
Disappointing
The one thing you can't do as a program during a rebuild is to take a step back. Becoming bowl eligible should no longer be the goal for this team. Now it's about competing for a top-four finish in the league or better. As well as the defense played a year ago and much of that unit coming back, there should be no reason why WVU can't finish in the top half of the league. Even if Jarret Doege and the offense are just average, the defense should still be good enough to compensate. Anything less than seven wins or finishing in the bottom half of the league will have people questioning if they should continue to "Trust the Climb".
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