Where Does KenPom Rank West Virginia Basketball?
Head Coach Bob Huggins and West Virginia saw mixed results while dealing with injuries and transfers throughout the 2020 season.
They ended the season with a 19-10 record. The Mountaineers lost several winnable games, including a 3-point loss to Syracuse in the NCAA Tournament. They only lost 1 of their 10 games by more than 5 points, consistently coming up short against some of the best teams in the country.
With that being said, West Virginia had some outstanding wins last season. Their most impressive wins came against Texas Tech, including a 10-point road win in Lubbock. The Mountaineers also recorded wins at home against Kansas and on the road against Texas.
KenPom is one of the best predictive ranking systems for college basketball. He currently has West Virginia ranked 46th in the country, a sizeable drop from their 23rd overall ranking last season. Let's dive deeper into this ranking for the upcoming season.
Big 12
The Mountaineers finished third in the Big 12 with an 11-6 record last season, and they're expected to take a step back this season. KenPom currently projects them to finish sixth in the Big 12.
There is the expectation that West Virginia could finish fifth or seventh, as well. Essentially, Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Texas are locked into the top-4 slots, as they all rank in the top-15 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rating
The next group of teams includes Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Oklahoma. These three teams all fall within a couple of points of each other in efficiency rating.
The Big 12 is rounded out by TCU, Kansas State, and Iowa State, who all sit well below West Virginia's group.
Offense
West Virginia is coming off of an outstanding offensive season, ranking 12th in the country with a 116.8 offensive adjusted efficiency rating. They were dreadful inside the arc but shot 36.4% from three-point range. They were also an extremely disciplined offense, ranking in the top-50 of the country in non-steal turnover percentage.
The Mountaineers' biggest area of success was their offensive rebounding, though, ranking 8th in the NCAA with a ridiculous 35.9% offensive rebounding percentage. Furthermore, they got to the line early and often in games, seeing plenty of free throws while putting their opponents in tough positions later in the game.
KenPom's projecting West Virginia's offense to take a step back in 2021. They brought back several key pieces, although the loss of Derek Culver and Miles McBride will be a massive hit to their offense.
Sean McNeil and Jalen Bridges will return for the Mountaineers. They shot 38.8% and 40.9% from beyond the arc, respectively, last season. This duo also lead the team in turnover rate in 2020.
Taz Sherman is another massive part of the offense, and he'll return this season. The West Virginia offense may go as far as Sherman's progression in 2021. He shot 35.9% from three, taking a small step forward from his first season with the team. More importantly, he's outstanding at drawing fouls while shooting 87.3% from the line last season.
Gabe Osabuohien is a limited offensive option for the Mountaineers, but he boasts tremendous offensive rebounding potential. Bridges is another option that will continue the elite offensive rebounding West Virginia's known for. Furthermore, Isaiah Contrell and Seny N'diaye are two options that could play a larger role than their freshman seasons. The former flashed before suffering an injury, and he's a player to watch for this season.
Transfer Malik Curry is another key to the Mountaineers offense this season. In his last season at Old Dominion, he was the focal point of the offense, leading the team in pass percentage, shot percentage, and assist rate. He also shot 85.2% from the line with a 49.6% effective field goal percentage. The biggest concern for Curry is his turnover rate, but he should be able to make plenty of plays that no one else on the offense has the capability to.
Defense
West Virginia's downfall was their defense last season. They ranked 70th in the NCAA, recording a 96.3 adjusted defensive efficiency. The Mountaineers struggled to protect the paint, allowing a 51.5% two-point percentage with a terrible 31.1% offensive rebounding rate.
As always, West Virginia found plenty of success creating turnovers. They ranked 55th in the country with a 10.6% turnover rate. They also posted a 10.3% non-steal turnover rate.
KenPom's projecting the Mountaineers defense improves from their second-worst season since 2014. It'll be interesting if they return to the full "Press Virginia" mindset with a smaller defense this season.
The versatility of the defense could be a key, though, as Cottrell and N'diaye stand 6'10". If one of them takes a step forward, West Virginia has the potential to go either small with Osabuohien at center or big with Cottrell taking that slot, while Osabuohien slides to power forward and Bridges shifts to small forward.
It's important to note that Osabuohien isn't likely to see many minutes at power forward, as his limited offensive game could halt the Mountaineers' production on the court for stretches. With that being said, he saw some minutes with Culver at center last season, and they at least boast the versatility to match bigger teams on the defensive end.
Losing McBride will hurt West Virginia's ability to pressure the ball, but Curry should immediately step into that role. He recorded a 3.4% steal rate at Old Dominion last season, and his veteran instinct should help in Huggins' defensive scheme.
West Virginia's one of the more interesting teams in the NCAA this season. They're experienced with shooters and a potential star in Bridges. The team is likely only going to go as far as he's able to take them, but they have enough talent to find success when he's struggling.
The Mountaineers are likely to take a step back after losing NBA talent in the off-season, but they still boast March Madness hopes to enter the year. KenPom's ratings agree, as well.
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