Who's making up for Vikings' lost production?
On Monday the sportsbook DraftKings posted its over-under totals and the Minnesota Vikings’ opening number is set a 8.5 wins. There are five NFC teams ahead of them and two more tied.
Of course, this is only a starting point. Last year around this time the Vikings’ win total was also set at 8.5 and the line moved up before opening day. But it’s also emblematic of how much talent they have lost this offseason from their 13-win 2022 club — and with few sure-thing answers about who’s replacing the lost snaps.
Kevin Cole, formerly of PFF and now author of the Unexpected Points newsletter, posted his metric called “Improvement Index,” which puts a point estimate on how much a team has lost or gained in talent during the offseason. The Vikings rank as having lost the fifth most production versus what they have added in free agency.
But Cole’s balance sheet is only based on who’s gone out vs. who’s come in. What about the players who are already here? What about those who can still arrive via free agency or the draft?
Let’s go player by player and look at the succession plan for the Vikings who have left via free agency thus far and the plans to replace them…
Patrick Peterson
Snaps: 1,104
PFF grade: 80.7
Key stat: 66.8 QB rating against
While Peterson might not have been an ideal fit for Brian Flores’s defensive scheme and it was likely best for both parties to end his time in Minnesota on a high note, he leaves behind pretty big shoes to fill. Peterson graded as the sixth best corner in the NFL by PFF in 2022. He was second in INTs, 10th in pass breakups and sixth in passer rating allowed. Whew.
Current Replacement: Andrew Booth Jr.
We can’t expect that type of showing from Andrew Booth Jr. but the 2022 second-round pick, who is expected to be healthy by training camp after a season-ending knee injury, will need to shine in order for the Vikings to put together a competitive coverage unit. As a rookie he flashed some skill in training camp but had a stop-and-start year, only seeing 105 total snaps and allowing 13 receptions on 15 targets into his coverage. Health will be a massive factor for the ex-Clemson star taking a leap forward in Year 2.
Dalvin Tomlinson
Snaps: 550
PFF grade: 77.1
Key stat: 33 pressures (third on the team)
The Vikings’ brass talked openly about wanting Tomlinson back and it’s not hard to see why. He graded 14th overall among defensive tackles by PFF and, surprisingly, had the eighth highest pass rush grade. While he wasn’t a sack machine, he did make good on the “pushes the pocket” claims that were made when the Vikings signed him and the ex-Giant seemed to be getting better at pass rushing with each passing year.
Current Replacement: Dean Lowry…and friends
If Lowry gets back to 2021 form rushing the passer, he can replace a lot of the snaps and pressure left behind by Tomlinson. If he can’t, well, the Vikings are going to be scrambling at that position unless they draft an interior rusher in the first round. They acquired Ross Blacklock last year during training camp but he was only on the field for 117 pass rush snaps and it’s hard to say what the Vikings have in ex-Gopher Esezi Otomewo. On the run defense front, Khyiris Tonga and Jonathan Bullard should be able to fill the gaps left by the big man who exited for Cleveland.
Adam Thielen
Snaps: 1,042
PFF grade: 65.0
Key stat: Ranked second on the team with 103 targets
Thielen’s numbers faded at the end of the season but through 15 weeks he was a consistent second option, gaining at least four passes nine times before only grabbing four total in the final three games. While never had a signature breakout game, 70 receptions with only one drop and a 95.0 passer rating on throws into his coverage is all solid production. However, he did only catch four passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air and went 4-for-15 on contested catches per PFF.
Current Replacement: KJ Osborn
We could argue that the replacement will be taken with the 23rd overall pick but it’s far from a certainty that Mr. WR2 is going to be available at that point and that he will be ready to take on a heavy workload alongside Justin Jefferson. The safe WR2 guess is KJ Osborn, who surged toward the end of last season with 25 receptions over the final four weeks. Osborn has back-to-back seasons with 600-plus yards and has a career 106.0 QB rating when targeted. The next man up past Osborn is the real question. If the Vikings pick a receiver, will he be able to contribute right away? If not, will Jalen Reagor, Jalen Nailor and Brandon Powell fight for the job? If not them, who? Will the Vikings simply not use WR3 on the field as much like in the Stefanski-Kubiak era? Is there a bigger move waiting in the wings or a free agent who might be overlooked? Major questions about that spot persist.
Eric Kendricks
Snaps: 1,094
PFF grade: 61.1
Key stat: 81.1 grade vs. run
Kendricks had his worst year in coverage, which could be attributed somewhat to the scheme but nonetheless won’t be a high bar to top for his replacement. However, that doesn’t mean it’s an automatic upgrade. Playing linebacker is so hard these days that a 61.1 PFF grade still landed Kendricks in the middle of the league (36th of 56) and he was elite against the run.
Current Replacement: Brian Asamoah
The Vikings were looking for explosiveness when they drafted Asamoah and they sure saw it in his first year. He played 121 total snaps and graded a 78.8 overall by PFF and strong in both the run and coverage areas. He was also good on special teams, which is a plus sign for his future. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Asamoah played with his hair on fire and will need lots of experience and seasoning before fully grasping a very challenging position. If he does, the transition can be smooth but it’s more likely there will be rocky moments along the way.
Chandon Sullivan
Snaps: 944
PFF grade: 55.8
Key stat: 72 catches allowed on 92 targets
Sullivan was one of the least effective nickel cornerbacks in the NFL in 2022. Opponents attacked him with more completions into his coverage than any other nickel and did so with great success. After he played serviceably in Green Bay in previous years, the question about whether the scheme caused his struggles lingers but the rock-bottom production offers an area for major upgrade.
Current Replacement: Byron Murphy
The former Cardinal could be exactly that upgrade. When playing the majority of his snaps in the slot, Murphy posted solid numbers, particularly in 2021 when he picked off four passes and allowed an 87.8 rating against. He was also an effective blitzer, which may entice the blitz-happy Flores. With some injury concerns coming out of 2022 and overall average grades over the last three years, there should be some tempering of expectations but in comparison to what the Vikings had last year playing at an average level would be a large improvement.
Cam Dantzler
Snaps: 505
PFF grade: 63.1
Key stat: 113.0 rating allowed
Dantzler had a redemption narrative going after back-to-back games mid season where he graded 86.0 and 86.3 by PFF and then his play fell off and an injury more or less ended his season. Overall he finished with very poor numbers, which were exacerbated when he came back from injury against the Lions only to give up a bomb touchdown to Jameson Williams. Dantzler’s entire time in Minnesota was filled with flashes at a position where consistency is everything.
Current Replacement: Akayleb Evans or a free agent to be named later
Speaking of flashes, the Vikings’ fourth round pick in 2022 showed them in his 162 snaps but three concussions limited his opportunities to 22 targets against, 16 receptions allowed for 242 yards and a touchdown. Because of his injury history, the Vikings will likely need to add someone else with experience. Lucky for them, the cornerback market still has a number of veterans who might see interest wane throughout the summer. There is a good chance that either a veteran or Evans or a combination of both could be better than Dantzler — or at least more consistent.
Duke Shelley
Snaps: 398
PFF grade: 81.5
Key stat: 57.9 QB rating allowed
Everyone loved The Duke for a reason: He was very good in his short time in Minnesota. He made plays on the ball, somehow ranking seventh in the NFL in pass breakups despite playing fewer than 400 snaps. How crazy is that? Well, Shelley had 10 PBUs and Jalen Ramsey and Trevon Diggs both had 11.
Current Replacement: ?????
You could argue that Shelley wouldn’t have repeated his insane hot stretch and you would likely be right but it contributed to the Vikings winning games last year and there’s no one currently on the roster who appears to be able to step into a playmaking type role in the secondary. Of course, we thought the same thing last year when Shelley arrived and he proved us wrong. The moral of the story is that somebody who’s unexpected will very likely need to become a contributor to the CB group. Sometimes it works, like with Shelley, and sometimes it doesn’t, like with Chris Jones or Bashaud Breeland.
Irv Smith Jr.
Snaps: 285
PFF grade: 56.6
Key stat: 25 receptions
Smith Jr.’s big break in Minnesota always seemed to be around the corner and never arrived. He played a big role alongside Kyle Rudolph in 2019 and 2020 and then got hurt before following up on it in 2021. And then last year he was behind the eight ball in camp because of a hand injury and never seemed to catch on with the offense. By the time he got back from another injury mid-season, the Vikings had replaced him with TJ Hockenson.
Current replacement: Josh Oliver
The 2022 version of Smith Jr. won’t be difficult to replace. Oliver is a dominant run blocker who could easily average more than Smith Jr.’s 7.3 yards per reception. In the best case scenario, he might even develop into more of a receiving weapon than he was in Baltimore. It’s possible he could allow Hockenson to move around more often and help soften the blow of losing Thielen’s production.
The bottom line
The Vikings are not on the positive side of the ledger with their moves so far this offseason but there are areas where they could get better. We still don’t know if Marcus Davenport is replacing Za’Darius Smith or rotating in with him and the same goes for Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. In those situations, it would be almost impossible for Davenport to top Smith’s 2022, though a running back rotation could end up being more efficient than Cook’s 2022.
Where the roster goes from here — with limited remaining cap space and draft capital — will determine whether they can make it to the plus side of Cole’s chart. Whether they can actually be a better team really rests on the 2022 draft class. If players like Booth Jr., Asamoah, Lewis Cine, Ed Ingram and Akayleb Evans end up improving in Year 2, the blow of key losses will be softened significantly. If not, it’s going to be extremely hard to patch over all the weaknesses.
