Josh Pate predicts top 15 college football upset on Saturday

Pate signals Vanderbilt breakthrough, pegs South Carolina as vulnerable Saturday night.

College football analyst Josh Pate is picking Vanderbilt to upset No. 11 South Carolina in Week 3. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Josh Pate has raised eyebrows ahead of Week 3. During Thursday’s episode of his College Football Show, he predicted that Vanderbilt will upset No. 11 South Carolina in Columbia on Saturday night.

The Gamecocks are 4.5-point favorites, but Pate was clear he does not trust their offense to separate from the Commodores. He called Vanderbilt’s offensive resurgence and common opponent comparisons reason enough to see real danger for Shane Beamer’s team.

“South Carolina’s favored by 4.5 against Vandy. That’s with home field,” Pate said. “Diego Pavia behind a very big Vanderbilt offensive line—I just don’t know that South Carolina is doing enough offensively to warrant me trusting them. That wide receiver production you guys promised me? That hasn’t shown itself yet.”

Pate Cites Vanderbilt’s Offensive Spark And Virginia Tech Comparison

Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia has completed 74.4% of his passes and thrown five touchdowns through two games. He also added 61 rushing yards in last week’s 44-20 win over Virginia Tech, where the Commodores outgained the Hokies by 300 yards in the second half.

“This is a big moment for Vanderbilt’s offense in general,” Pate said. “They really turned it on against Virginia Tech last week. Both of these teams already have a common opponent in Virginia Tech.

Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia (2) has passed for 468 yards and five touchdowns, along with 105 yards rushing. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

"Vandy thoroughly outplayed Virginia Tech in their own building. South Carolina needed special teams magic to beat them down in Atlanta.”

That difference has fueled Pate’s prediction. He added, “At some point, can I count on that showing up again Saturday night? Maybe I can. Maybe that’s what brings a win home for South Carolina. But I’m worried about it.”

Upset Alert Level Reaches 10 For South Carolina

Statistically, Vanderbilt holds a stronger offensive profile through two games. The Commodores are averaging 485.5 yards and 44.5 points per game. South Carolina, meanwhile, has struggled to find rhythm, ranking 118th nationally in total offense at 290.5 yards per game.

Defensively, both teams have been stingy. South Carolina has allowed just 10.5 points per game, but Vanderbilt ranks fifth nationally in total defense, giving up 191.5 yards per game. If turnovers and time of possession come into play, the Commodores may have another edge.

South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers (16) must carry the offense during his Week 3 matchup against Vanderbilt. | Jeremy Reper-Imagn Images

“I’m putting a 10 on it [as an upset alert]. I’m worried about it,” Pate said. “Some would go as far as to say I’m predicting Vandy to win the game outright. And I am. I am predicting Vandy to win the game outright.”

Vanderbilt and South Carolina kick off Saturday at 7:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network.