USC vs. Tulane: Cotton Bowl game prediction, preview
College football bowl season moves into the New Year as USC and Tulane meet in the Cotton Bowl for an intriguing Pac-12 vs. AAC matchup on Monday.
Tulane is the representative for the Group of Five in the New Year's Six bowl rotation after going 11-2 and winning the AAC Championship, led by quarterback Michael Pratt, who passed for 2,776 yards with 25 touchdowns and just five interceptions for an offense that posted 35.2 points per game.
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USC is one of college football's biggest turnaround stories after first-year coach Lincoln Riley helped lead a renaissance on offense behind quarterback Caleb Williams, who eclipsed 4,000 yards passing for a nation-leading 37 touchdown passes with just four picks on a team that averaged 41.1 points per game on the way to winning the Heisman Trophy.
Southern Cal seemed on the cusp of making its first College Football Playoff, but a loss to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game ended those hopes, thanks in part to a defense that struggled all season stopping opposition playmakers, combined with a hamstring injury to Williams in that game.
Here's what you need to know about the Cotton Bowl matchup between the Trojans and Green Wave, with the latest betting information and our predictions.
Cotton Bowl: USC vs. Tulane game prediction, preview
USC vs. Tulane Cotton Bowl prediction, preview
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How to watch, stream
When: Mon., Jan. 2
Time: 12 p.m. CT, 10 a.m. PT
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Cotton Bowl game odds, betting lines, point spread
Point spread: USC comes in as the 2 point favorites against Tulane, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.
Total: 64 | Over -110 | Under -118
Moneyline: USC -133 | Tulane +105
FPI prediction: USC has the 58.4 percent chance to win the game, compared with Tulane at 41.6 percent, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times.
Spread consensus pick: USC -2 (63% of bets going with Trojans)
More: USC vs. Tulane picks, predictions by proven computer model
USC football betting trends
+ USC is 8-5 against the spread overall this season
+ The over is 7-0 in USC's last seven total games
+ The over is 6-0 in Trojans' last 6 after a SU loss of 20-plus points
+ Over is 5-0 in USC's last 5 after throwing for >280 yards in previous game
Tulane football betting trends
+ Tulane is 11-2 against the spread overall this season
+ The over is 4-0 in Tulane's last four games
+ Over is 5-0 in Green Wave's last five games against winning teams
+ Tulane is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games after throwing for >280 yards last time out
Cotton Bowl Game: Keys to victory
Tulane wins if: It puts playmakers in space against USC's back seven and pressures Williams.
Tulane can do both: the Trojans' tacklers can be beat, coming off a disastrous Pac-12 title game in which the unit missed a season-high 24 tackles, a major inconsistency for a defense that, despite its struggles, also led college football in turnover margin, but for prolonged periods just could not get itself off the field in vital moments against otherwise overmatched conference opponents.
Defensively, the Green Wave has a chance against a USC protection unit that will be without two starters due to injuries and that allowed seven sacks from Utah tacklers in its last outing. Tulane had six sacks in the AAC title game against UCF.
USC wins if: It protects Williams and replaces Jordan Addison's production.
Addison, who led the Trojans with 59 catches for 875 yards and 8 of the team's 38 passing touchdowns, won't play in the Cotton Bowl as he rehabs an ankle injury. That should pave the way for Tahj Washington and Mario Williams, who lead a deep receiver corps, to get more action: the two have a combined 11 TD catches this year and average north of 15 yards per catch.
Williams will need every man on deck against a Tulane defense that posts solid numbers in most categories: 21st allowing 1.75 points per drive, 8th surrendering 4.73 yards per play, 48th giving up 3.89 yards per rush, 8th allowing 6.0 yards per pass attempt, 36th allowing 35% on third down, and 7th by surrendering 38 plays of 20 yards. Granted, most of that is against Group of Five competition, but this team also beat Kansas State on the road and presents credible speed in one-on-one situations defensively.
USC vs. Tulane Prediction
Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt is a dynamic piece who led the AAC in passer efficiency, threw for 25 touchdowns, and ran for 10 more while hitting 65 percent of his pass attempts, and he distributes the ball well: four players have at least 30 catches and three have five or more TD receptions.
USC needs to bring its bend-but-don't-break defense, the one that is among the nation's best in takeaways, against Tulane's multi-faceted attack, especially when going against Wave back Tyjae Spears, who, among his 1,376 yards and 15 touchdowns while averaging a solid 6.5 yards per carry, also forced the 11th-most missed tackles in FBS this year.
But the key player in the game anywhere on the field is the Heisman Trophy winner. If Caleb Williams is free to work, USC wins. Tulane doesn't sack quarterbacks too often (24 times), but it's great at getting to them, making contact with QBs 219 times this season, the 7th best mark in FBS.
College Football HQ Cotton Bowl prediction: USC 36, Tulane 27 (USC -2, Under 64)
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