USC vs. Utah: Pac-12 Championship Game preview, prediction
Everything is on the line Friday when USC and Utah face off in the Pac-12 Championship Game, at least for one of its teams.
For the Trojans, a spot in the College Football Playoff awaits if they can beat the Utes and avenge their only loss of the season, a sure thing as a one-loss conference champion, and what would be the school's first semifinal bid.
Utah, the defending Pac-12 champion coming in, earned the other spot in this game in the final week of the regular season thanks to a three-way tiebreaker over Oregon and Washington, and with a shot to knock USC out of the playoff.
Here's what you need to know about the game, along with our prediction for who wins, and why.
USC vs. Utah: Pac-12 Championship Game preview, prediction
USC vs. Utah: Pac-12 Championship Game prediction
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How to watch
When: Fri., Dec. 2
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication
Point spread: USC comes into the game as narrow 2.5 point favorites against Utah, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.
Total: 68 points
Moneyline: USC -150 | Utah +115
FPI prediction: Utah has the 61.2 percent margin to win the game outright against USC, according to the Football Power Index computer that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times. USC has the 38.8 percent edge in the game, according to the model.
Related: USC vs. Utah picks, predictions: Pac-12 Championship Game odds, spread, lines
USC vs. Utah: What you need to know
1. Which defense shows up? When these teams met last, Utah came away with the 1-point victory, but not without a fight. It came down to Cameron Rising one-yard sneak and two-point run with under a minute left. That, after both teams combined for 85 points and 1,118 total yards. Given how strong both these offenses are, whichever defense comes up with more stops in the second half wins the game. Advantage Utah, against a USC team that ranks 91st nationally in total defense and is bottom 15 nationally allowing 6.17 yards per play.
2. The Heisman frontrunner. Caleb Williams picked the best time to play his best football, moving into the forefront of the Heisman race with a skill set that's tough for defenses to stop. The USC quarterback has 44 total touchdowns this season to just three interceptions, working with a blue-chip cadre of skill targets and behind an offensive line that PFF calls the 10th best in college football. One weakness? He can be rattled under pressure, hitting just 50% of his throws when not working from a clean pocket. That'll be job No. 1 for the Utah front seven.
3. USC's backs vs. Utah's front. In order for USC to fully capitalize on its offensive prowess, it has to balance things out to take some of the pressure off Williams and spread out the Utes' defensive alignment. Not having lead back Travis Dye doesn't help, but Austin Jones has played well in his place: he rushed for 154 yards in 25 carries in the win over Notre Dame and hit 120 on 21 attempts against UCLA. Utah hasn't allowed over 70 rushing yards in four of its last five games and ranks 1st in the Pac-12 in third down defense, run defense, scoring defense, total defense, and time of possession.
Picks: College football conference championship game predictions
USC vs. Utah: Fast Facts
+ Utah is 4th nationally averaging 26.4 first downs per game
+ USC is 3rd nationally in passing efficiency offense and 91st in pass defense efficiency
+ Utes are only team in Pac-12 that is top 20 nationally in both scoring offense and defense
+ Trojans are 1st nationally with a plus-23 turnover margin
+ Utah holds opponents to 15.5 first downs per game, 11th nationally
+ USC is 2nd nationally in third down conversion (.553)
+ Utah is 10th nationally averaging 39.4 points per game
+ Southern Cal is 3rd in college football with 42.5 points per game and 5th nationally in total offense (506.6 ypg)
+ Utes are 8th in FBS in third down conversion (.503)
+ USC leads the nation with a 1.92 turnover margin per game
+ Utah is 5th nationally in sacks and TFLs allowed
+ Caleb Williams tops all players with 22.0 points responsible for per game
USC vs. Utah Prediction
USC has been playing Jekyll and Hyde defense all season, consistently leaking yards to opponents, allowing more than 300 air yards in five of the last six games, but also taking the ball away more than any other team in the country.
Rising has the arm to push around the Trojans' pursuit group on intermediate plays, and tight end Dalton Kincaid has already split this defense in half by going over 200 yards receiving in the first meeting.
If there's such a thing as momentum, USC has it right now. Playing its best on offense behind a Heisman favorite at quarterback, it has the power to get past the Utes' defenses and should catch a break with Utah running back Tavion Thomas not playing as he prepares for the NFL Draft.
College Football HQ Prediction: USC 34, Utah 30
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