Bryce’s Bets: Azerbaijan Grand Prix
After a week off, Formula One returns to pick up where it left off following a better-than-expected race in Monaco two weeks ago.
The changing weather conditions combined with some failed strategy by Ferrari led to Sergio Perez winning his third race of his career and his second for Red Bull.
It was the first time this year a driver other than Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc won a race. Let’s look back at the Monaco bets. A cash sign means it hit, an X means it didn’t:
Carlos Sainz -188 Top Three Finish $
Sainz had a solid race on the streets of Monaco. He started second behind his teammate Leclerc and remained in that spot for most of the race. A failed pit strategy combined with a caution led to the front of the field being bunched up. Sainz pushed Perez at the front but Sainz ultimately finished with a solid second place showing.
Charles Leclerc -110 Fastest Lap X
Leclerc seemed destined to hit this bet. However, Mother Nature had other plans. Leclerc was out front by a few seconds but a failed pit strategy put him back in fourth place. Leclerc was stuck behind the top three and Lando Norris ended up with the fastest lap as he had a clear track ahead of him.
Valtteri Bottas -110 Top Ten Finish $
Bottas started 12th but has shown great race pace all year. Despite Monaco’s narrow street circuit, Bottas was able to pass cars and finish the race ninth. It seems like Bottas is getting the most out of his Alfa Romeo car.
Pierre Gasly +250 Top Ten Finish X
After a horrible qualifying session, Gasly started Monaco 17th. He couldn’t make up for it and finished 11th.
Record for the week: 2-2
Record for the year: 10-8
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This week, exact odds were unavailable from SISportsbook at the time of writing. Therefore, picks with estimated values will be given. Go find that value!
Charles Leclerc to Win
Leclerc has qualified on pole in six out of the first eight races, yet he only has two wins. In reality, Leclerc should have four wins. He was leading the field comfortably when his car broke down at Barcelona and had a good lead before Ferrari screwed up his pit stop in Monaco. This means Leclerc has had the pace in the last few races. He starts Sunday's race from pole, but you can still find him with plus odds on most books. Take Leclerc to win on the Baku street circuit with great value.
Sebastian Vettel Top Ten Finish
Vettel has had an excellent record at the Baku circuit in Azerbaijan. Since the race began in 2017, Vettel has finished no lower than fourth. He is starting ninth Sunday, but he has the pace to finish better than that. Vettel wasn’t able to get out to set a flying lap at the end of Q3. The odds aren’t great, but you should be able to find them better than –200. Bank on Vettel having the pace to comfortably finish in the top ten.
Lando Norris Top Ten Finish
Norris had a disappointing qualifying session and he is starting 11th. He always has improved race pace and I expect him to be able to make up the one place. Again, the odds are a little better than the Vettel pick, but not great. Regardless, Norris should score points.
Sergio Perez to Win
Perez is flying under the radar right now. He is only 15 points behind his teammate and championship leader Verstappen. He’s been quicker than Verstappen all weekend. Don’t be surprised if Perez wins this race with Red Bull’s better straight-line speed on Baku’s massive straights. He starts second and the odds for him winning are around +300. It’s great value. Put some money on Perez winning at Baku for the second year in a row.