Hard as it may seem to believe, is it possible Lewis Hamilton will never win again?

Sir Lewis won 8 times in 2021, but hasn't won even once since then. Is his career over, or does he still have some wins left in his Mercedes' fuel tank?

Seven-time F1 world champion Lewis Hamilton has not reached the top step of the podium since 2021.

Hamilton’s last victory came in the penultimate race of the season in Jeddah, as he beat rival Max Verstappen and tied the points tally.

Of course, Verstappen went on to win the championship in a dramatic and controversial race ending in the season finale, depriving Hamilton of an eighth title and started Mad Max on what would become a two-season championship run (which could be three in a row by the end of this season).

But that second-to-last race of the 2021 season in Saudi Arabia was the eighth race that season Hamilton would win. Since then, he’s put up zeroes in the wins column throughout 2022 and thus far in 2023.

Which leads to a question countless fans – both Hamilton supporters and detractors – alike want to know: is the Saudi victory the last race the man nicknamed “Hammy” will ever win?

In Formula One you could argue that it is more about the team and less about the driver when it comes to who wins races. Mercedes got the car wrong in 2022 when the regulations went through a massive overhaul.

Teams like Red Bull and Ferrari were quickest in 2022, with Verstappen dominating most races. On the other hand, Mercedes was often the third-fastest in 2022, leaving Hamilton with a lot of work to do to pick up a win.

It seems like in 2023 Mercedes may have got it wrong again. In fact, Aston Martin, which uses the Mercedes engine, has been faster than the manufacturer’s team.

How is that possible?

Heading into this weekend’s grand prix event in Melbourne, Australia, Fernando Alonso in the Aston Martin has picked up two podium finishes, ahead of Hamilton in his Mercedes ride in each of the first two races.

What does that mean about Mercedes’ and Hamliton’s future both collectively and, if necessary, separately? While we’re only two races into the 2023 campaign and there is plenty of racing still to go, the early indicators are not exactly promising looking for Mercedes and its star driver, are they?

But there remains that nagging thought in the mind of a lot of people around the globe: will Mercedes still be able to finally provide a car for Hamilton to score a win this season? And if that is not the case, will Hamilton – who turned 38 in January – decide to move on from the silver arrows at season’s end?

Admittedly, Hamilton has three options at the end of this season: stay with Mercedes, move on to another team, or call it quits entirely, the latter two being the two most unlikely choices. Even if he struggles again with Mercedes for a second straight season, it’s unlikely Hamilton will go anywhere else for 2024.

On the contrary, Hamilton is so competitive, fiery and persistent, he may very well stick at it until he earns a win, come hell or high water.

Unfortunately, Verstappen is not going to make it easy. He’s as close to unstoppable as Hamilton used to be in his prime.

But there is one somewhat bright spot for Hamilton, if you want to call it that. If he can at least maintain a similar pace with Verstappen, and Mad Max winds up in trouble via a wreck or mechanical issues, that is when Hamilton has to be prepared to pounce immediately.

Granted, looking at the upcoming schedule, in terms of possible race wins this year for Hamilton, it seems unlikely. In the opening race of the season in Bahrain, Sir Lewis finished an almost unheard of 50.977 seconds behind Verstappen, achieving 5th place to open the season.

While other drivers may consider finishing fifth a coup, that is actually a major disappointment for Hamilton. That 50-second gap equates to almost a full second per lap. In F1, a second-per-lap pace disadvantage is almost impossible to make up throughout the year.

However, in Saudi Arabia, Hamilton finished 5th place again, only 31.065 seconds off the pace. To the naked eye, it would seem that the gap between Lewis and Max closed by a lot, but in the middle of the race, a full-course safety car was called.

That allowed the entire field to regroup. Hamilton also had a tire advantage, using the mediums compared to the rest of the field using the softs.

So, in reality, the 31-second gap is actually worse than the 50-second gap he had in Bahrain.

Mercedes is expecting more upgrades throughout the season, but of course, so will its competitors. We can look at the 2022 season to compare how Mercedes was able to fix its car.

At the beginning of 2022, the Mercedes was impossible to drive and was nowhere near the speed of Ferrari and Redbull. And then throughout the season, Mercedes kept gaining time and won a race at the end of the year.

But Hamilton was not the winner, of course. It was teammate George Russell, who took his first career F1 victory.

So, given the past with Mercedes, some would believe that as the year goes on, Mercedes and Hamilton could have a chance to top the podium. But, if that is not the case, or if Russell wins another race or more, will that prompt Hamilton to move on?

The question Hamilton will have to ask at the end of the year if he has not picked up a win would be about his future with Mercedes. Hamilton has always said – well, almost always said – positive things about his team, often saying Mercedes doesn’t make mistakes.

Albeit, if he goes two straight years without a win, would he move to another team to battle for a potential eighth championship? A move to Ferrari could happen, as Hamilton has mentioned he would love to race for such a historic team, but would Ferrari give up on Carlos Sainz Jr. and Charles Leclerc?

A more realistic option could be Aston Martin. If it looks like they are the fastest Mercedes-powered team, that could be the direct move. A possible move to Redbull would be in question, as well but how would a Verstappen/Hamilton team get on?

So, most likely given its past, Mercedes will more than likely close the gap to the top teams by the end of the year. Will that be enough for Hamilton? There’s little doubt the eighth championship is out of the question this year unless something dramatic happens to Verstappen.

But rest assured, there’s no question Hamilton would love to reach the top step of the podium at least one more time – if not several more times.

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