What to Watch: All the key storylines to track in the second half of F1 season
As my father and others before him have said: "Take the 'L' out of Lover and it’s over."
With the F1 hiatus over and racing set to begin again Sunday with the Belgian Grand Prix, Max Verstappen holds a dominating 80-point lead through 13 rounds. This type of lead has only been seen one other time in the past 10 years through 13 rounds: Lewis Hamilton led by 85 points through 13 rounds in 2020.
To put it in context, Verstappen could choose to not race in the next three races and still have the championship no matter what happens.
From a gambling perspective, Verstappen is –1200 to win the world championship. So if someone were to bet $10 on Verstappen to win the championship, they’d only take back $10.83 when he wins it.
Notice how the word "when" and not "if" is used. At this point, only a devastating injury would potentially keep Verstappen from winning the championship. As long as that doesn’t happen, Verstappen will win his second straight F1 title.
Although it’s more thrilling to watch a championship fight like last year’s, there are still plenty of storylines on and off the track to keep fans watching and following all the action.
Verstappen is having a historic season -- and there's still nine races left! Photo: USA Today Sports / Eric Bolte
How Much History Can Verstappen Make?
Verstappen has broken records before in his career and could break some notable ones this season.
The 24-year-old currently has eight wins on the season. The record for wins in a single season is 13, held by Michael Schumacher and Sebastian Vettel. Verstappen needs five wins in the last nine races to tie the record, while six triumphs would give him the record outright.
The Red Bull and Verstappen have been so in sync lately the record is not out of the question, especially with Ferrari’s questionable strategy calls lately.
Another record in jeopardy could be the most podiums in a season. Verstappen holds the mark with 18 podiums earned last year. He already has 10 podiums, which means he needs to finish on the podium in all nine races to re-set his own record. This seems unlikely but the Red Bull has been so reliable and Verstappen so consistent that it’s a possibility.
Verstappen will become the second-youngest back-to-back world champion behind Fernando Alonso in 2005 and 2006. In winning, he will become the 11th driver to win two championships in a row.
Greatness is upon us.
Who Comes in Second in the Constructor’s Championship?
Red Bull is 97 points ahead at the top of the constructor's table. At the beginning of the season, the fight looked to be between Red Bull and Ferrari. Now, the fight has transitioned to the battle for second place between Ferrari and Mercedes.
Those two manufacturers have performed quite differently. Ferrari has looked like the fastest car in the field for most of the year. But its results do not support that statement. Ferrari has continued to make errors in strategy on the track and, as a result, has gotten the least out of its cars.
On the other hand, Mercedes has been, at best, the third-quickest car in the field. But through great strategy and great driver performance, Mercedes has maximized its potential and has gotten numerous podiums when it shouldn’t have.
Mercedes has continued to chip away at Ferrari’s hold on second place, with only 30 points between the two teams heading into Sunday's race.
Ferrari should have second in the bag with its pure speed, but Mercedes hasn’t won the last eight constructor’s titles for no reason. It returns to the second half of the season with upgrades and should win a race before the 2022 campaign is over.
Meanwhile, Ferrari fans will hope the team has regrouped and tweaked its strategy to benefit the team and the drivers.
Will George Russell wind up topping teammate Lewis Hamilton as Mercedes' top-performing driver in 2022? Photo: USA Today Sports / Sam Navarro
Who Ends Up as the Top Mercedes Driver?
One of the more surprising storylines in Formula One is George Russell’s superior command of the Mercedes.
Coming into the year, experts had picked Lewis Hamilton as a favorite to win his eighth world title. Very few people thought Russell had a chance to outperform Hamilton.
However, in the season's first few races, Russell was the one who looked like the seasoned veteran compared to Hamilton. Russell was Mr. Consistency to begin the year, finishing between third and fifth in the first four races.
On the other hand, Hamilton finished as high as third and as low as 13th as he experimented with different setups.
Russell had a huge lead on Hamilton early on but the seven-time world champion has found his footing, having finished on the podium in the last five races and is now just 12 points behind his teammate in the standings.
It looks like it will be a close fight between the two Mercedes pilots until the season's end. Russell is looking to become the first driver since Nico Rosberg in 2016 to beat Hamilton as his teammate.
Where Does Oscar Piastri End Up?
Some of the most shocking moves have happened off-track this year. During the summer break, Alpine announced Oscar Piastri would take Fernando Alonso’s seat next season, as Alonso moves to Aston Martin, replacing the retiring Sebastian Vettel.
Piastri then refuted this announcement and said he would not be driving for Alpine next year, even though he legally is under contract to Alpine for 2023. McLaren has reportedly signed Piastri to replace Daniel Ricciardo next season.
The Piastri situation sounds ironically similar to the whole Alex Palou/Chip Ganassi Racing mess currently playing out in the world's other premier open-wheel racing series, namely IndyCar.
Palou has already signed to drive for McLaren, even though Ganassi has invoked the final and option year of Palou's current contract, including suing his driver in what has become one of the more awkward situations in IndyCar in a long time.
While it was believed Palou, as defending IndyCar series champion, would move to F1 for McLaren in 2023, it's now looking more and more like Palou will remain in IndyCar next season. It's just a question of whether he will drive for CGR or McLaren.
The battle for who gets Piastri for next season will be heard in a Formula One board meeting next week.
Whoever gets the young Australian driver could be getting a star. Piastri won the Formula Three championship in 2020 and the Formula Two championship in 2021.
Much like the Palou situation in IndyCar, the decision over Piastri’s rightful contract could impact Formula One for years to come.
Will Daniel Ricciardo remain in F1 with another team in 2023, or does he try his hand perhaps at IndyCar ... or maybe even NASCAR? Photo: USA Today Sports / Jerome Miron
Where Does Ricciardo End Up?
The eight-time race winner has had a disappointing year with McLaren. He’s currently 12th in the standings and 57 points behind his teammate, Lando Norris.
Eve though Ricciardo has one more year left on his current deal, both he and McLaren announced this week that they have mutually agreed to part ways at the end of this season.
Now the question is where does Ricciardo go next? The 33-year-old Australian is a fan favorite and won a race last year. There are numerous possibilities with multiple teams having openings in their driver lineup.
The favorite at the moment seems to be Alpine. If it loses the contract dispute for Piastri, Ricciardo could return to the team despite the rough breakup when he left them for McLaren after 2020. This would give Ricciardo a car as good as the McLaren and a chance to compete for podiums from the midfield.
And don’t count out Haas or IndyCar or even NASCAR as Ricciardo's new home in 2023. Ricciardo is a huge fan of American culture and stock car racing and may want a change in scenery following a challenging few years in Formula One.