Breaking It Down: How Cup playoff bubble looks after Michigan and heading into Indy
It feels like déjà vu but Chris Buescher in the No. 17 machine won yet again in the rain-delayed finish on Monday of the NASCAR Cup race at Michigan International Speedway.
Before last week it was pretty clear that Buescher was going to make the playoffs on points, but after winning his first-ever short track race at Richmond, and now winning this past weekend at Michigan, Buescher is now clearly in the playoffs and a legitimate threat!
His teammate Brad Keselowski also had a great race and was potentially the second-fastest car towards the end and the No. 6 team manifested a large points-paying race which all but puts them through into the playoffs now.
That was an exciting race in Michigan this weekend, with quite a few changes to our playoff bubble, so let's take a look at those affected drivers and see how things have been shaken up:
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Bubba Wallace walks onstage during driver intros prior to Sunday's 64th Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. Wallace finished runner-up to Austin Cindric. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
15th. Bubba Wallace (+58): Bubba now finds himself in 15th place for the third week in a row, which is a good thing for him. Every week he has expanded the gap further and further.
Just two weeks ago, he only had a two-point gap and now he has almost 2 full races worth of points ahead of him. Just like in Richmond last week, the 23 team's objective was to secure stage points and that was apparent by how they ran strategy in stage two, stretching fuel so they could finish fourth in the stage.
The 23 car looked strong the entire race but fell off a cliff in the back half of the final stage. All in all, Bubba would finish 18th but scored 35 points, which was the 10th highest points paid for the weekend.
Those 35 points were absolutely huge considering Michael McDowell had a rough weekend. Bubba has a good lead, but with two road courses -- where McDowell usually excels -- coming up and Daytona, you would have to imagine that the points gap would lower heading into the final race, but all Bubba is hoping for is that he has a 20-point cushion heading into Daytona where anything can happen.
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Ty Gibbs just missed the Cup playoffs in his rookie season last year. But at age 20, he showed great promise for a long and very successful career in the Cup series. Will he be able to beat NASCAR's Cup's notorious sophomore jinx in 2024? Time will tell. Photo: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images.
16th. Ty Gibbs (+3): As I predicted a few weeks ago, the man with the best machinery in this playoff hunt sneaks his way in. Three weeks ago it seemed unlikely but due to bad performances around him with the likes of Daniel Suarez and McDowell, along with the Hendrick Motorsports' struggles, Ty Gibbs has now slid into playoff position.
Gibbs ran top 10 all day yet again at Michigan, picked up some stage points, and crossed the line in 11th place. But more importantly, the grandson of team owner Joe Gibbs scored 34 points.]
It seems like Gibbs has finally got to grips with his equipment which makes sense because he's in his first year in Cup and it would take a while to get up to speed. Gibbs is possibly the most interesting in this playoff bubble because at this point you're looking for consistency.
This isn't something you look at a rookie for, but Gibbs recently has hown he's fast and consistent. Ty, and Toyota are often quick at the road courses, and with Indianapolis and Watkins Glen backto-back in these next couple of weeks, it'll be very interesting to see if Gibbs can actually build a gap heading into Daytona.
If Gibbs is too aggressive in these road course races or he gets unlucky and doesn't pick up stage points, things can go south for the driver of the No. 54. Keep an eye out for Gibbs potentially even winning one of these next three races, provided he has the speed.
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Michael McDowell hopes to earn his 2nd Daytona 500 win in the last four years. Starting on the outside of the front row for Sunday's race (weather permitting), he has a very good chance of doing just that. Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
17th. Michael McDowell (-3): Just outside the playoff bubble now is Michael McDowell. The Front-Row Motorsports driver has been hanging on for the last month, after moving into the playoffs due to a second-place finish in Atlanta.
It seems now that the luck has run out and McDowell is now on the outside looking in. It was a tough race at Michigan for the Ford driver only picking up 13 points by finishing 24th and not getting any stage points to boot.
With that being said, McDowell's favorite part of the season is coming up now, so some people would argue that this is the lowest he will be.
As mentioned, we have two road courses coming up next, which McDowell is very much a fan of and has proven with good results.
Also, let's not forget the season finale is a track that he most recently won at, that being Daytona. McDowell may be on the outside looking in now but his head has to be set high due to the upcoming schedule, but none of that will matter if they can't turn the momentum around...
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Daniel Suarez celebrates in victory lane after winning the 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
18th. Daniel Suarez (-5): How? How is Daniel Suarez only five points behind? He had two terrible weeks back-to-back, which all but really had him as a viewer and not really a contender to this playoff bubble.
Of course, I never considered him a non-playoff bubble driver, but it seems like those around him we're going to overtake and make him an afterthought. That is not the case anymore!
Suarez picked up a ton of points this weekend, 45 to be exact. Pair that with McDowell's lackluster race and the same with Allmendinger and that puts you right back in the battle.
Suarez picked up stage points all day long and finished in sixth place to grab 45 points, as I mentioned. He now sits five points out of the bubble.
Suarez is another one of those drivers that are good on road courses, if you need any evidence, throw it back to Sonoma last year where he took victory.
One thing that we are finding is that all these playoff bubble drivers are really good road-course racers.
So does Suarez really have an advantage over McDowell or Gibbs or even A.J.? This is exciting to have a playoff bubble full of really good road course racers when 67 percent of the remaining schedule for the regular season is consisting of road courses.
Suarez though, has picked up a win on one of them. So, let's see how things shake out.
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Honorable mentions:
Well, the list of the main challengers becomes shorter and shorter each week and the honorable mention list grows larger and larger.
A.J. Allmendinger will be running full-time for the NASCAR Xfinity championship in 2024, as well as compete in select Cup races, including Sunday's (weather permitting) Daytona 500. (Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images)
* AJ Allmendinger is 24 points out. Maybe that's a bit harsh to not consider him in the bubble anymore, but he needs to turn things around if he wants to have a chance at anything.
You could argue that he must now win because there are too many good road course racers ahead of him that he needs to make points upon.
I also put him on the honorable mention list because of what he did in Richmond, forfeiting his starting position so he could race in Xfinity.
I don't think the 16 team is really focused on playoffs at all. But given Dinger's prowess on road courses, he could easily sneak into the playoffs.
Alex Bowman needs to have some high finishes -- a win would be exceptional -- in the remaining three regular season races if he hopes to make this year's NASCAR Cup playoffs. Photo courtesy Steve Fecht/GM News Photos
* Alex Bowman sits 20th at 44 points behind and has shown no signs of winning a race anytime soon. It seems to be Daytona or bust for Bowman, who if he missed the playoffs, would come as a shock if you said that at the beginning of the year.
Austin Cindric still has an outside shot to make this year's NASCAR Cup playoffs. Photo courtesy NASCAR.
* Austin Cindric actually jumped past Chase Elliott but still sits 53 points behind and is in the same situation as Bowman: Daytona or bust. Cindric is a good road course racer as well, so maybe he is a surprise pick for Indianapolis or Watkins Glen.
Chase Elliott is in a must-win situation if he hopes to make the upcoming NASCAR Cup playoffs. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)
* Chase Elliott, last but not least, has all been eliminated from points contention. After spinning out last week, Elliott is now 55 points behind. It's not impossible given his equipment, but you would argue that he needs to pick up 40+ points every week, which is possible, plus stage points and a top-10 finish every week).
We will see what he can do, but his most likely scenario is a win, which is very possible given the upcoming schedule.
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That does it for this week. There's a very good chance we will have a new winner this week since it is a road course and it's Indianapolis to be exact.
If you remember a few years ago, Allmendinger won the race with Chase Briscoe being there right at the end. That is just fuel for the fire for these drivers outside the bubble that they can win in because they know it's a possibility due to past races.
I predict we'll have a winner outside of the playoff bubble. My pick is Justin Haley, which would shake things up and would put Wallace in 16th as the new cut-off man.
That is all fiction as of right now but we'll see how things turn out. Tune in next week to see how the playoff bubble changed!