Breaking It Down: NASCAR Cup playoffs 'Round of 8' -- aka the semifinals
The Round of 8 brings three final tracks for drivers to secure their spot for the championship race in Phoenix on November 5th. Win and you are in the championship!
But if you can't win ... a near-perfect three races in this round is required to head to Phoenix with a championship on the line. The Round of 8 includes a couple of intermediate tracks to kick it off and concludes with some short track racing where NASCAR's biggest moment of the year happened ... looking at you Ross Chastain.
Let's take a look at the top key drivers to keep an eye on and the tracks they face ahead of them in this round:
********************
The Drivers
Martin Truex Jr. is a driver who arguably should not even be in the Round of 8 at this current stage. But due to his regular season championship and his large tally of bonus points, the New Jersey native finds himself in the Round of 8 easily despite bad results.
In the first six races of the playoffs, Truex has finished in the following positions: 18th, 36th, 19th, 17th, 18th, and 20th. In no way shape or form is that Round of 8 worthy. But Truex is only in this spot because he entered both the Round of 16 and 12 with a positive buffer of over 30 points.
So despite the terrible results, he eased his way into the Round of 8. The bad news for MTJ is that those same results will not cut it in this round. If he continues to struggle like this, not only will he miss the championship, but he'll probably finish in 8th of 8.
Still, keep an eye out for Truex as he was the championship favorite heading into the playoffs.
********************
Tyler Reddick is the next culprit of my critiques. In the old points-scoring method, Reddick would be in 14th place right now, but that would be taking things too far out of context. Now, Reddick has had race-winning speed at almost every event this year, especially in the playoffs so far.
Most times though, Reddick makes a mental mistake, a bad call, or wrecks himself out. Reddick could have had up to 5 more top 10s this year if he didn't fumble his opportunities. So while he is 14th in the old point-scoring method, that takes into account those missed places.
So far in the playoffs, Reddick has capitalized at every track. He won in Kansas which locked him into the Round of 12, then he had great speed and consistency in the Round of 12 to make it to this round with just points.
If Reddick continues to drive fast and with that race-winning edge, while keeping it consistent, Reddick would not only be a dark horse for making it to the championship but winning it all together.
********************
Denny Hamlin is the final driver I want to talk about. James Dennis Hamlin has been on an absolute tear this year and seems to be a real championship threat. Making the final dance usually isn't an issue for the Gibbs driver as much as showing up to Homestead or Phoenix with a slow ride.
Hamlin has been arguably the best driver in these playoffs, and he started it with a win in Darlington. In the Round of 12, he easily advanced to the Round of 8, doing so before the final race in Charlotte even finished.
So, the question lies or whether or not he finishes in the top half of this group to make the championship.
Given the tracks, Hamlin has a fantastic opportunity of just winning his way in. Hamlin and Toyota's forte has often been intermediates and short tracks, which take up 100% of the Round of 8 schedule. If Hamlin fails to win any of these races, I would find it very surprising that he didn't at least point his way into the final.
Of course, Hamlin has been the hardest-luck driver in the Cup playoffs for more than the last decade. Since 2006, the Virginia native has reached the Championship 4 season- and championship-deciding finale six times -- yet has never won the Cup crown.
Will the seventh time -- if he makes it out of the Round of 8 -- finally be the charm?
********************
The Tracks
The Round of 8 opens up in Las Vegas this week, a fast mile-and-a-half to get things going out west. The drivers in the Round of 8 to look out for here due to past races would be Truex, who has the highest average finishing position of the remaining drivers with an 8th place average.
Christopher Bell is the biggest struggler here with a 19th-place average. Look out for the Toyotas per usual here. Early favorites would be the likes of Truex and Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Hamlin.
The second stop in the Round of 8 is another high-speed intermediate track, this time in Homestead-Miami. The competitive track just south of South Beach welcomes drivers to a fast yet tire-focused mile-and-a-half. Hamlin is the name that pops out here. He is the best finisher in the group with an average of 6th.
The biggest struggler here would come from the Ford camp of Chris Buescher with an average of 18th. Throw in the fact that he might be the most at risk in this round and Homestead could be a real issue for him. Who's to say he doesn't take care of business this weekend though with a win ... and Homestead wouldn't matter.
The final stop before the championship leads us to Martinsville, Virginia. Home of the famous Chastain power move! It's banned now so don't expect to see that again ... plus Chastain isn't in the Round of 8.
Martinsville has been more of a snooze fest with the next-gen car, but due to the circumstances, I expect to see much more aggressive racing. Surprisingly, the best finisher in the group is Ryan Blaney.
Could Blaney be below the cutline but still in contention come this race? If that's the case he'll be happy he has a 5th place average finish here. Blaney for sure could be a serious threat to make it to the championship race with this event lined up in this spot.
The remaining hope of Team Penske will have an excellent chance to be one of the four finalists heading to Phoenix if he sets himself up with the first two races to be in a position to need, say, 35 points. Then there's a good chance it could happen.
On a more sour note, Reddick has had almost no success here with an average finish of 20th. Reddick has been on fire lately though so his fortunes could change.
********************
Conclusion
With eight of the best drivers left to duel it out at a couple of intermediates and a short track, you'll want to tune in and watch almost every lap of action. Here are the odds for the Championship Four: William Byron +325, Kyle Larson +350, Hamlin +500, Truex Jr +500, Buescher +800, Blaney +1100, Reddick +1100 and Bell +1100.
Taking all of the above into consideration, my picks to reach the Championship 4 are: Hamlin, Larson, Byron and Reddick.