Breaking It Down: NASCAR Cup Round of 12 leaves four drivers with backs against wall
The Autotrader Echopark Automotive 400 at Texas Motorspeedway provided a ton of excitement to kick off the Round of 12. We saw three R12 drivers fall victim to extremely costly DNFs that puts them with their backs against the wall heading to a pair of wildcard races in the remainder of the quarterfinal playoff round.
As mentioned in my previous Round of 12 preview story, the opening race at Texas was about the only "predictable" -- or should I say, "a race where you can control your own destiny".
Therefore, it was important for all the drivers to take points where they could get them, and enter the wildcard races above the cutline.
We saw drivers like Tyler Reddick and Chris Buescher stay out during stage one to take the maximum amount of points. Drivers like Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain opted to take the long-run approach and give up those guaranteed points in order to put themselves in a better position for the ladder part of the race.
Some major playoff DNFs included Kyle Busch having a tire issue and spinning out, damaging the rear of his car, and causing him to only take 3 points from the opener.
Ryan Blaney got caught up in a wreck at the end of the race, being in a spot he shouldn't have been in due to his team's pit strategy. But luckily, due to the timing he still finished 28th and took home 20 points.
The most major DNF would have to be Kyle Larson. The #5 car was the fastest car in clean air, and a side-by-side battle with Wallace in which Larson spun out on the bottom with under 20 laps to go, took the former champ out of the race.
You could argue that Larson should have given up the position to Wallace, and with nearly 20 laps to catch up, Larson would have the speed to overtake on track. Instead, Larson lost 35 points and heads to a couple of wildcard tracks where he has not had much success at in the past.
Of course, William Byron grabbed Hendrick Motorsports' 300th win, his series-leading sixth win of the season (he's averaging one win in every five starts), and secured his spot in the Round of 8.
Byron even said himself that he didn't have a race-winning car, but just like a majority of his wins this year, Byron put his car in the right spot at the right time.
Let's take a look at the current drivers under the cutline. Due to the next two races being wildcards, you cannot predict or go off of previous results to determine the likeliness of a driver making the Round of 8, but we can take a look at how Texas impacted their chances.
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12th. Kyle Busch (-17)
The younger Busch brother was fast all day, running top 10 consistently. It wasn't until a tire issue forced him out of the race. Busch ran into a dirty part of the track that wasn't ready yet, which in turn caused him to slip and slide everywhere. Busch ultimately tested his luck a bit too much and spun out from 6th place, up the track, and into the wall, ending his day.
Busch grabbed just three points, which feels very unlucky given the circumstances. If he ran for the rest of the race in Texas he would be sitting comfortably above the cutline, but instead, he needs a miracle at Talladega to even be in contention come time for the Roval.
11th. Ryan Blaney (-11)
Talk about bad luck and being in the wrong place at the wrong time, there was Ryan Blaney. The Team Penske driver ran a more interesting -- to say the least -- pit strategy. It was obvious the Fords, and more specifically, the Penske cars had little to no speed.
Blaney and the Penske's ran in the 20s for the majority of the race, although Blaney was one of those drivers in both stages who opted to take the guaranteed stage points. Blaney achieved 7th place in stage one and took that easy 4 points. In stage two he grabbed 4th, taking 7 points.
Unfortunately, the strategy looked good until it didn't. Due to being at the back because of that strategy, Blaney got caught up in a wreck, and retired from the race. Luckily he got those stage points as he took a total of 20 from Texas.
We won't predict Talladega, but Blaney's forte has been the superspeedways. He will look to exit that race above the cutline.
10th. Tyler Reddick (-3)
Reddick exited just three points below the cutline, which could be in favor of the stage 1 win he achieved. Reddick was another driver that ran the alternate strategy, which didn't work out in the end. Reddick had the speed in spells but overall was slow for the weekend. Reddick finishes 25th but grabbed an impressive 22 points given the circumstances because of that stage win.
Reddick is another driver who is good and has had success at the next two wildcard tracks, but anything can happen. Reddick probably isn't too concerned at the moment, but if anything goes wrong in Talladega, he will be behind the eight ball.
9th. Bubba Wallace (-2)
Bubba finds himself just two points below the cutline after a massive points haul in Texas. The pole sitter had speed all race, leading the most laps, and finished in 3rd position. Wallace opted to give up the stage 1 win for better track position later in the race, which worked out in the end.
Wallace didn't have race-winning speed off the final restart, but at the end of the day, took home 37 points, the most of his playoff career so far, and entered one of his favorite tracks just barely below the cutline.
The Roval may not be Wallace's friend, so Talladega can be considered a must-win for him -- or at least another 35-pointer will be needed.
As we head into Talladega, let's remember anything can happen, and our bubble next week will probably look a LOT different.