Breaking It Down: One race and one playoff spot left -- Does Chase Elliott make it or not?
The NASCAR Cup playoff field is set for all but one spot!
With William Byron cruising to victory at Watkins Glen, and both Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski also clinching berths based on points, it leaves just the 16th position up for grabs, currently held by Bubba Wallace.
Harvick went through the year with ups and downs but due to mostly strong results, he "pointed" his way in and can focus on preparing for a final playoff run.
For Keselowski, a very solid year sees the RFK co-owner not even needing a win to make the playoffs, unlike last year where he failed to make the postseason. RFK goes from no playoff cars in 2022 to both its cars -- Keselowski and Chris Buescher -- in this year's 16-car playoff field in just one year.
Now, heading into Daytona with just the one open spot remaining, it makes what is on the agenda for this final race fairly simple: Win and you're in.
That is about the only option Saturday night.
Wallace holds a large point lead, where it's going to be almost impossible for another driver to "point" their way in unless the 23-car gets in deep trouble. In simple terms, if Wallace wins, he keeps his playoff spot.
If a current winner wins in Daytona, then Wallace will keep his playoff spot as long as he keeps the point gap in his favor.
Then, finally, if a nonplayoff driver wins for the first time this year -- like Chase Elliott -- they are in, and Bubba is out.
Mix in the fact that we have Daytona... a track anyone can win on and, oh boy, do we have a race on our hands Saturday Night!
Let's break it down into further detail!
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Bubba Wallace needs a strong run Sunday to advance to the Round of 8. (Photo: USA Today Sports / Jay Biggerstaff)
16th. Bubba Wallace (+32): Bubba holds a strong 32-point gap heading into a track he has performed well in the past. Now, 32 points can easily evaporate at a superspeedway where you can find yourself in trouble or even losing multiple positions in a single lap if you play the draft wrong. Bubba will also have a weird feeling in his mind knowing that if a nonplayoff driver wins, then Michael Jordan's and Denny Hamlin's main man will find himself on the outside looking in even if he has a good result.
Bubba may race for survival. The 23 team may just try to keep track position and finish the race in a decent spot and make the playoffs based on points. Of course, if Elliott or someone like Austin Dillon wins again like last year, Wallace would once again find himself not in the postseason.
The good news for Bubba is that due to his success at Watkins Glen, a 12th place finish, Bubba has the choice to race with his points gap and not fully risk a "win or bust" strategy. All in all, Bubba holds all the cards for this final spot, but there are so many possible outcomes that would force him out of the playoffs, Yet as of now, he would be the favorite to keep that spot.
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Ty Gibbs just missed the Cup playoffs in his rookie season last year. But at age 20, he showed great promise for a long and very successful career in the Cup series. Will he be able to beat NASCAR's Cup's notorious sophomore jinx in 2024? Time will tell. Photo: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images.
17th. Ty Gibbs (-32): Gibbs is about the only driver other than Wallace with the possibility to also still "point" his way into the playoffs. If Gibbs grabs a few more stage points compared to Wallace, and Gibbs gets a top 10 and Bubba finds himself in an accident, then Gibbs would have a very good shot at making up those 32 points.
Gibbs has had solid back-to-back weekends and capped it off running top 10 in Watkins Glenn, finishing in 5th position. You could argue that since the All-Star break, Gibbs has been a playoff driver. He has more points than both Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Michael McDowell. Unfortunately, since both drivers have wins, Gibbs is on the outside looking in.
Gibbs can continue that impressive form and potentially "point" his way in. If that is not the case, what are the odds he can win in Daytona?
He should be in the playoffs due to recent results, but it may require a win Saturday night to get in. It's very possible but as we know with superspeedways, it's more about luck and positioning rather than pure driving skill. We will see what happens with the only Joe Gibbs car remaining that's not in the playoffs.
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Everyone else ... win and get in.
For the rest of these drivers, they must win to make the playoffs. Points don't matter for these Cup pilots anymore -- win and you're in -- which could cause some issues (and excitement) for these drivers.
Daniel Suarez celebrates in victory lane after winning the 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
* Daniel Suarez will look back on his second-place finish in Indy as his closest opportunity at making the playoffs. It will take a win Saturday night for the Trackhouse driver to make the playoffs. His team's superspeedway package has not been up to par this year, so we'll see what Suarez can do. He will for sure race with the intention of only winning, as most of these drivers will. The question is, will he have the speed?
AJ Allmendinger celebrates in victory lane after last year's Xfinity Series Pit Boss 250 at Circuit of The Americas. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
* AJ Allmendinger did not take advantage of the remaining road courses to get into the playoffs. The scenario now for the Kaulig driver? Pretty much like everybody else: win and you're in. Just like Trackhouse, the Kaulig machines haven't had the greatest superspeedway package, but we'll see what the Dinger can do.
Chase Elliott failed to make the NASCAR Cup playoffs for the first time in his career in a season he'd likely rather forget, which includes missing six races recovering from a snowboarding accident and resulting surgery. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)
Like pretty much every other driver who has failed to win even one Cup race thus far this season, Alex Bowman (48) must win Saturday at Daytona if he hopes to make the playoffs.Photo: Steve Fecht/GM News Photos
* Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman: Both Hendrick Motorsports drivers have the same "win and you're in" scenario. Both cars have a great chance to win Saturday night based on speed alone. Bowman often qualifies very high, if not pole position in Daytona, so in fact, he may be one of the favorites for this race. On the other hand, Elliott has won his fair share of superspeedway races, and this is now the final opportunity for NASCAR's most popular driver to make the postseason. Keep an eye out on these Hendrick drivers as they have the best shot to win out of the current nonplayoff drivers.
As for the rest: I should mention the rest of the drivers that would make the playoffs with a win. Due to the nature of Daytona, literally anyone can win. So, these are all the full-time drivers that would be playoff-eligible with a win. (Austin Cindric, Justin Haley, Ryan Preece, Aric Almirola, Corey Lajoie, Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, Harrison Burton, Chase Briscoe and Ty Dillon). Todd Gilliand is not playoff-eligible as he is not racing full-time.
So, tune in to Daytona Saturday night for the season finale! Who will be the final driver to make it in?