Breaking It Down: Recapping NASCAR Cup at Indy and how the playoff picture stacks up
Editor's Note: Due to both health reasons and technological issues, several pieces that we normally would have posted over the past weekend were unable to be posted. Our apologies for that.
As expected, the Indy Road course changed the NASCAR Cup playoff bubble yet again. This race was perhaps the biggest shake-up to the playoff agenda since we started writing these pieces four races ago.
In a race that saw the longest green flag run in NASCAR since 2016, Michael McDowell dominated this race to take home 59 points and a win, which now locks him into the playoffs.
I'm going to throw it back to my article last week where I mentioned that this race could be very interesting because all the playoff bubble drivers and outsiders are really good road course racers, and that is exactly how this race played out. The likes of McDowell, Chase Elliott (still hasn't won a race this year), Daniel Suarez, Alex Bowman, and Ty Gibbs all finished in the top 12 and took home good points on Sunday.
As I had predicted, the gaps would shrink to the playoff line because of this, and well it has. So let's get into it!
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Bubba Wallace needs a strong run Sunday to advance to the Round of 8. (Photo: USA Today Sports / Jay Biggerstaff)
16th. Bubba Wallace (+28): With McDowell's win at Indy, Bubba is no longer 15th. That effectively only gives one spot remaining for any and all drivers to play for. Since there are 13 different drivers with a win, and with Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski being over 100 points good and to the clear, only the 16th place position remains at play now.
Bubba had over a 50-point gap heading into Indy, and it's not like Wallace had a bad race at all. He didn't pick up any stage points but he finished in 18th, which is relatively decent for how he is as a road course racer. The issue for Bubba was the drivers behind him as I mentioned. McDowell picking up a win and Suarez grabbing third place is really what cut this line in half. The position is under battle now!
Even though Bubba has a 28-point gap, he most definitely is not feeling good about himself anymore. That gap can just as easily be squashed to less than 10 points heading into Daytona. As we know, superspeedway races lead to a lot of DNFs and some low-point finishing positions, which may not be good for someone like Wallace who so often finds himself in this situation.
The 16th-place position is heating up and there are a lot of hungry drivers behind him.
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Daniel Suarez celebrates in victory lane after winning the 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
17th. Daniel Suarez (-28): Suarez is in a very interesting position. Just last week he was only five points outside of the playoff bubble, and he got third place Sunday.
So how is he now 28 points out of the cutoff point? Well, no big surprise, that is primarily due to McDowell's win. There's a reason why Suarez was pushing McDowell so hard in this race, for more reasons than just a win. Even though Suarez took 51 points from Sunday's race, which is absolutely incredible, the playoff line is not McDowell anymore and is now Wallace as mentioned. So Suarez gained a ton of points on Bubba, 35 to be exact, but the line has changed for Suarez unfortunately.
It's going to take another great road course race this weekend at Watkins Glen for Suarez to put himself in striking distance. The odds and predictions would tell you that Suarez is going to seriously close this gap heading into Daytona, and many would say that if he has a good weekend next time out, he may even put himself into that 16th position.
Put it this way: if he does the same thing he did at Indy, and Bubba does the same thing he does next race, Suarez will have a seven-point lead heading to the Big D.
Let's keep an eye on the Trackhouse 99 car.
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Ty Gibbs just missed the Cup playoffs in his rookie season last year. But at age 20, he showed great promise for a long and very successful career in the Cup series. Will he be able to beat NASCAR's Cup's notorious sophomore jinx in 2024? Time will tell. Photo: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images.
18th. Ty Gibbs (-49): It was an eventful race for the Joe Gibbs Racing rookie. The grandson of team owner Joe Gibbs was spun around early and got into it with Shane Van Gisbergen, making only his second career Cup start, during this race.
Because of that, Gibbs lost some valuable stage points and was hindered during the race from that point forward. Fortunately for Gibbs, he did show decent speed and put a good car with good speed together for a 12th-place finish.
In terms of the bubble, Gibbs is almost 20 points behind Suarez now, which will be hard to make up in just two races. Gibbs had an eight-point lead on Suarez before Indy, so for Gibbs to exit with such a large margin even considering he finished 12th cannot feel good for the team and driver.
Gibbs has been very consistent this year, especially in the back half of the season, so we'll see if he can continue that next week in upstate New York.
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Honorable mentions:
Once again, the list gets shorter and shorter. This does not mean that those drivers are the only drivers contending for that final playoff spot.
If anyone can help steer Chase Elliott into the playoffs in the two remaining qualifying races, it's team owner Rick Hendrick. Photo courtesy NASCAR.
* Chase Elliott sits in 19th position now, 80 points out of the loop. Just last week Elliott was only 55 points behind, but as mentioned before, the new line is Bubba Wallace, which means Elliott now sits 80 points behind. Even though Chase took home 49 points from Indianapolis, he's going to have to use that speed again and put it all together at Watkins Glen with a win if he wants to make the playoffs. It would not be surprising to see Chase win it all next week or even in the final race in Daytona. That would of course shake the bubble up even more. There will not be any waiver for NASCAR's most popular driver. If he makes the playoffs, he's going to have to work for it. In other words: a win is on Elliott's menu.
Like pretty much every other driver who has failed to win even one Cup race thus far this season, Alex Bowman (48) must win Saturday at Daytona if he hopes to make the playoffs.Photo: Steve Fecht/GM News Photos
* Alex Bowman also sits exactly 80 points behind and is in the same situation as his Hendrick Motorsports teammate. Bowman got fifth place at Indianapolis with a car and driver combination that looked pretty speedy. They will need to put it together even more so at Watkins Glen to keep pace and still have a chance. Let's not forget that Bowman is very good at Daytona, so I would not be surprised to see Elliott (Watkins Glen) and Bowman (Daytona) win the final two races to push those two HMS drivers into the playoffs.
A.J. Allmendinger will be running full-time for the NASCAR Xfinity championship in 2024, as well as compete in select Cup races, including Sunday's (weather permitting) Daytona 500. (Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images)
* A.J. Allmendinger -- I'm throwing The Dinger into the mix for the lone reason that we have Watkins Glen next week. Things have gone south for the Kaulig Racing driver in the last three weeks and a 26th-place finishing position at Indianapolis proved that even further. Of all the drivers still in the hunt for the lone remaining spot in the last two playoff qualifying races, it is a win or bust for A.J. and you would argue that has only real chance is this weekend.
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So that does it for this week's edition of Breaking It Down for the playoff bubble. With just two races left and only one position up for grabs, unless we have two new winners that are not listed above, all eyes will be on Bubba, Suarez, and Gibbs this Sunday.