Breaking It Down: Where those still with a chance at NASCAR Cup playoffs stand right now
Last week's NASCAR Cup race at Richmond put yet another spin on the NASCAR playoffs as Chris Buescher picked up the victory on the legendary Virginia short track.
Buescher was already looking pretty solid in points since he had almost 130 points good to the clear, but a win locked him into the playoffs as he currently sits in 13th position.
It was a strategy race with different drivers at the front at almost every stage break. In the first stage, it was dominated by Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, and Bubba Wallace.
Getting second place in stage one was huge for Bubba as that gave him nine more points that can't be taken away from him (unless via a NASCAR-imposed penalty if he steps out of line).
Bubba also picked up solid points in the second stage. This race was mostly dominated by Ford and Toyota, as the pair of RFK teammates -- Buescher and Brad Keselowski -- took control of the rest of the race.
Bad Brad looked like a great pick for the win but due to some pit road errors and strategy calls, the Special K couldn't find himself in Victory Lane. Keselowski has not won a Cup race since the spring 2021 race at Talladega.
At least his teammate Buescher got the win in what seemed to be the fastest car in the second half of the race. We'll take a look at how this race impacted a few of our bubble drivers:
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Bubba Wallace needs a strong run Sunday to advance to the Round of 8. (Photo: USA Today Sports / Jay Biggerstaff)
15th. Bubba Wallace (+54)
Wallace is now 54 points ahead of the cut line. Due to picking up 15 more stage points, and a 12th Place finish at Richmond, this race provided a buffer that will be needed, considering we have two road courses upcoming, and a superspeedway where you can get wrecked out.
54 points will have Bubba feeling pretty safe heading into Michigan, where he almost won last year but fell short of Kevin Harvick. If Bubba can have at least 50 points of a gap before these final three races, he can be considered safe.
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Michael McDowell hopes to earn his 2nd Daytona 500 win in the last four years. Starting on the outside of the front row for Sunday's race (weather permitting), he has a very good chance of doing just that. Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
16th. Michael McDowell (+18)
McDowell unfortunately finished 22nd at Richmond, but he did manage to keep his car out of trouble, unlike some of the other playoff bubble drivers.
It is going to take a lot from these two upcoming road course races for McDowell to lock himself in. We know he is an excellent road course racer and he's won at Daytona before, so he should be locked in as the favorite for the 16th spot.
Unfortunately, we all know that equipment is king. Is his Front Row Motorsports Ford faster than a young rookie in top-tier equipment behind him?
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Ty Gibbs just missed the Cup playoffs in his rookie season last year. But at age 20, he showed great promise for a long and very successful career in the Cup series. Will he be able to beat NASCAR's Cup's notorious sophomore jinx in 2024? Time will tell. Photo: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images.
17th. Ty Gibbs (-18)
Speaking of that young rookie, Gibbs has had a fantastic last two races and is now within striking distance of McDowell.
The third-generation member of the Gibbs racing family picked up more stage points and finished 15th in Richmond. He has been on a roll since the All-Star break and has really jumped into a potential playoff position here.
Being 18 points behind, stage points are going to be very important in these next four races. Any strategy calls from the Gibbs team will be to score the most points rather than trying to pick up a win with a risky strategy, something McDowell has done quite often this year.
Due to the equipment, the betting odds may be in favor of Gibbs, but can the young rookie put all the pressure on his shoulders?
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AJ Allmendinger celebrates in victory lane after last year's Xfinity Series Pit Boss 250 at Circuit of The Americas. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
18th. AJ Allmendinger (-22)
AJ was the talk of the town this weekend because he decided not to qualify in order to race at Road America last week, which didn't really go to plan.
Many people questioned Kaulig Racing's and AJ's motivation. Why would a driver in the playoff bubble forfeit qualifying to race in the Xfinity race which would put him at the back of the field?
Throughout the week, their answer was that they felt they had a good chance at winning the Xfinity race. Well, the Xfinity plan backfired and it ultimately also backfired during last weekend's Cup race at Richmond.
"Dinger" didn't pick up any stage points at the 7/8-mile bullring and finished dismally in 27th position. Having picked up just 13 points, Allmendinger is now 22 points outside the playoff bubble.
So he is not out of the question, especially given the two upcoming road courses, but you could question his intentions because of what happened last weekend.
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Daniel Suarez celebrates in victory lane after winning the 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
19th. Daniel Suarez (-34)
Things have not gone well for Suarez in the last two weeks. He was wrecked out at Pocono, and he had a tough race last week, finishing 33rd and only picking up four points.
The Mexican driver is now in the position where he pretty much needs to win one of the four remaining pre-playoff races in order to get into the post-season competition.
Being 34 points back isn't an unheard amount of having to come back from, but he went from only one point out to 34 points out in a matter of two weeks.
Maybe he can do the opposite in a better direction? He hasn't had the equipment this year to win a race, and his teammate, Ross Chastain, hasn't had it in the second half of the season either.
While a win would lock him in, at the very least Suarez needs to pick up top tens on the two road courses -- let alone in the final four pre-playoff races -- to have any chance heading into the final playoff qualifier at Daytona.
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Honorable mentions include:
* Chase Elliott is 40 points out and will probably need a win in order to make it in, although if he can finish the next four races with the consistency he's had this year, there's a chance it could come down to Daytona.
* Another honorable mention is 21st-ranked Alex Bowman, who is just two points behind Elliott at 42 behind. Bowman hasn't looked as strong as Elliott this year, so you would have to argue that a win is needed for Bowman as well.
* Austin Cindric is 64 points behind and needs a win, the same for Justin Hailey, who is 70 behind, and a pair of Stewart Haas racing drivers, Aric Almirola and Ryan Preece are almost mathematically eliminated and therefore will need to pick up a win.
As we know, anything can happen in these final four races. Stay up-to-date to see how the playoff bubble changes every week!