Breaking It Down: Which drivers still have a shot at making the Cup playoffs?
With only six races remaining on the NASCAR Cup regular season calendar, it is about that time to start looking at the drivers that are on the playoff bubble.
Obviously, we will not mention any drivers that are already locked into the playoffs with a win, nor will we mention any drivers that are too far outside the bubble to be a legitimate threat within the next six races.
Of course, any driver that wins a race who runs full time is in the playoffs, so someone like Austin Dillon running in 29th place heading into this weekend's race at Pocono, will not be mentioned in the bubble. But with a win, he can move into the playoffs and in turn, would make the playoff bubble even tighter.
The only exceptions I will give will be Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman. Both of these drivers missed time this season due to injuries.
If you're Elliott, you've had fewer races to compete in. Realistically both drivers can still get in through points, but both would most likely need a win to find themselves in the playoffs.
As of right now heading to Pocono, there are 11 different drivers with a win, leaving five spots currently open for the drivers with the most points without a win.
Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Chris Buescher should all feel pretty safe as they are137 points, 108 points, and 97 points above the cut line, respectively. Of course, a bad day in the office for either one of these drivers could cut that number significantly, but for the sake of this piece we will consider those three in a good spot, and not on the bubble.
That leaves two playoff spots open at this current time. Right now, that would mean 15th-ranked Bubba Wallace, who is two points above the cut line, and 16th-ranked Michael McDowell, who is one point above the cut line.
The drivers that are currently out of the playoffs that I would consider on the bubble would be Daniel Suarez, A.J. Allmendinger, Ty Gibbs, Alex Bowman, Justin Haley, Austin Cindric, and Elliott.
So let's take a look at all nine of these drivers who are currently in the bubble.
Bubba Wallace has the best chance right now to make the Cup playoffs for the first time in his career. Photo: USA Today Sports / Jasen Vinlove
15th : Bubba Wallace (23xi Racing) (+2)
Bubba finds himself just two points clear of the cut line. It has been the best season of Bubba's career so far, but it has been marred by inconsistencies, bad luck, and driver errors.
There have been multiple times this year when Bubba would be running in a good points-paying position, but due to either a pit road error, driver error or being caught up in a wreck, he would find himself scoring low points. Of course, this happens to every driver but it seems to happen to Bubba a lot more often.
Bubba has consistently run in the top 15 all year and if he can finish the year out a bit more consistently and finish and the top 20 for every race he should see himself through. Bubba has raced in the front and that is proven with his 4 top fives and 6 top 10s. Bubba will be a lock for the playoffs if he finishes the 26-race regular season on that form.
Michael McDowell hopes to earn his 2nd Daytona 500 win in the last four years. Starting on the outside of the front row for Sunday's race (weather permitting), he has a very good chance of doing just that. Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
16th: Michael McDowell ( Front Row Motorsports) (+1)
McDowell has had a very strong July, which was emphasized by his second place showing in Atlanta.
He's a threat at any road course as well coming up on the calendar with Indianapolis and Watkins Glen, and McDowell has found himself good at superspeedways, which we have Daytona as well.
The No. 34 team has finished in the top five just once and top 10 on five occasions. McDowell is a legitimate threat for the playoffs again, this time on points.
Daniel Suarez celebrates in victory lane after winning the 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
17th: Daniel Suarez (Trackhouse Racing) (-1)
Suarez has not had the same year as he had in 2022, but he's only one point out of the playoffs.
Overall, Trackhouse has lost some speed given the fact Suarez already won by this point last year and Ross Chastain was making a name for himself.
Of course, Chastain already has a win this year and Suarez is still looking for his first triumph, but he has run well enough to be in the battle via points. Suarez has led laps this year but hasn't had a race-winning car just yet.
We must mention he only has six top 10s thus far this season. It has been a difficult year for his sake and his results haven't been great, but he is in a good position with six races to go.
AJ Allmendinger celebrates in victory lane after last year's Xfinity Series Pit Boss 250 at Circuit of The Americas. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
18th : A.J. Allmendinger (Kaulig Racing) (-20)
Allmendinger should find himself lucky to even be in this position, and his first year back full-time in the Cup Series, this time in the No. 16 car for Kaulig Racing,
A.J. has only been up at the front a few times this year. He runs middle of the pack or even the back of the pack, yet has been able to find a way to score points consistently. He has only picked up 4 top 10s on the year, so it may be hard to make up those points without a consistent finish at the top.
He is 20 points out of the playoff picture right now so it will take a strong end to the regular season, but the speed has been there this year for the 16 team on certain tracks. Limiting the DNF's would go a long way for this team.
Ty Gibbs just missed the Cup playoffs in his rookie season last year. But at age 20, he showed great promise for a long and very successful career in the Cup series. Will he be able to beat NASCAR's Cup's notorious sophomore jinx in 2024? Time will tell. Photo: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images.
19th: Ty Gibbs (Joe Gibbs Racing) (-41)
Ty Gibbs is currently the only Toyota driver not in a playoff position, but he should be cut some slack given he is a rookie.
The grandson of team owner Joe Gibbs did have the benefit of running as a replacement for Kurt Busch last year during the playoffs, but that hasn't translated a whole lot into the No. 54 car this year. Gibbs has been getting progressively better and given his June and July performances, there is a good chance he will find himself right there at the cutline come Daytona.
Ty has a car to win a race given the equipment and has that advantage over a few other drivers that are in the bubble. A surprising stat is that Gibbs doesn't have a single top five on the year and only has five top 10s. It's a surprise that he is even here with those numbers, but it's because he never really finishes worse than 28th.
The 20-year-old Gibbs has made his fair share of mistakes but has also been able to garner good results when his car is fast. It'll be interesting to see how the rookie finishes off this year, and if he does make the playoffs, what kind of threat he would be?
Alex Bowman needs to have some high finishes -- a win would be exceptional -- in the remaining three regular season races if he hopes to make this year's NASCAR Cup playoffs. Photo courtesy Steve Fecht/GM News Photos
20th: Alex Bowman (Hendrick Motorsports) (-42)
Alex Bowman is one of those drivers that I mentioned who missed races due to injury, which theoretically keeps him out of the playoffs at the current moment.
He is 42 points behind after New Hampshire and given had he raced those couple of races he missed, he probably would've scored 42 points. So Bowman is in a position where he shouldn't be, and it's up to him to capitalize with a race win or a consistent end to the season where he's able to notch a top 10 in maybe four out of the six races, if that's even enough.
Bowman has 6 top 10s and 3 top 5's, so the Hendrick driver has the pace to make it in on points if he can be consistent in this final run of the season. Keep in mind 42 points can be hard to come back from when the drivers above you are also scoring points. It's more than likely going to take a win for Bowman due to his injury.
Justin Haley still has a chance at making the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, but a win in the remaining six regular season races would seal the deal for him. Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images.
21st: Justin Haley (Kaulig Racing) (-46)
Haley is a surprise to be in this position alongside his teammate Allmendinger.
Haley potentially could've stolen a win on the Chicago Street Race course, but was still able to finish with a great result there that propelled him even higher up in this playoff bubble.
Haley, who announced Friday that he'll move to Rick Ware Racing next season and beyond has found himself in the top 10 five times already, which is a nice feat for this team. Having zero stage wins has hurt Haley's chances, but if he can score during the stages, that point gap will drop.
Haley is another one of those drivers who will probably have to pick up a win, since he is 46 points behind at the current moment, and doesn't have top speed every race.
Austin Cindric celebrates in victory lane after winning the 64th Daytona 500 last year at Daytona International Speedway. But he's really struggled for high finishes, let alone chances to win this season.(Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
22nd : Austin Cindric (Penske Motorsports) (-51)
Austin Cindric made the playoffs last year with his Daytona 500 win, and he might need another win this season -- potentially Daytona again -- to find himself in the postseason.
It has been a lackluster year for the Penske driver and is the lowest driver out of the big teams, excluding Chase Elliott, that is in the standings. Cindric has not lived up to the expectations of himself and his equipment, and since he's 51 points behind, it's going to take multiple top fives and no DNFs, or a win.
Cindric has not finished in the top five all year and has just three top 10s. His teammates have a combined 10 top fives and 20 top 10s, so Cindric is way off the mark here. We know Cindric can win, he did it in the Xfinity Series and he did it at the Daytona 500, so he is one of those drivers in the bubble right now that could find himself in the playoffs again due to a win.
Chase Elliott failed to make the NASCAR Cup playoffs for the first time in his career in a season he'd likely rather forget, which includes missing six races recovering from a snowboarding accident and resulting surgery. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)
23rd: Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports) (-60)
The final driver is Elliott. He is 60 points behind after missing six races due to an off-track injury from snowboarding, which is amazing in itself.
Elliott is averaging an 11th-place finish this year. If he can continue to race around the top 10, he might have a chance at points, but being 60 points behind it's gonna take plenty of stage points, and consistent top 10 finishes to sneak his way in.
Luckily for Elliott, he has already achieved five top fives this year, which gives a slight hope he can continue that, and make it in on points.
The thing holding Elliott back could be caused by stage wins. He has just one stage win this year, which is limiting the amount of points he gets at any given race.
With that being said, the best bet for Chase Elliott is a win. He has six races left to do it.