Breaking It Down: Whose playoff advancement hopes end at the Roval?
Burnouts for the Talladega winner and some loose windshield fasteners on the second-place car who lost by 0.012 seconds fully explains Sunday afternoon's race in Alabama.
Ryan Blaney grabbed the win to lock himself into the Round of 8, which is huge for Team Penske and the Ford program after a slower year that includes just one Penske car and two RFK cars in the Round of 12.
An unfortunate DQ for Kevin Harvick means that the closest finish of the year (0.012) isn't actually the case. William Byron moved into the runner-up position after Harvick's DNF.
Coming out of the tri-oval, the field kept it clean with Blaney and Byron on the inside line, with Harvick and Riley Herbst on the top lane. Corey Lajoie got loose and caused a wreck right before the finish line that took out half the field right before the end of the race line.
That caused Harvick to lose a push and the race, although it wouldn't have mattered. With the wreck at the end, some playoff drivers got through and others got caught up. Overall, not a ton of cars changed points and at the end of the day, this race was very clean for the playoff drivers.
Ross Chastain was about the only driver in the playoffs to come up with an issue in Talladega. Brad Keselowski also got tagged in the end so he had to rely on his stage points and now finds himself just two points above the cutline.
With Dega done and dusted, let's take a look at the four drivers at risk of being eliminated as we head to the final race of the Round of 12, this Sunday's race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval:
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9th. Tyler Reddick (-2)
Reddick had a very quiet day at Talladega, which may have been a good thing for him. Reddick pitted with the Toyota's in the first stage, which proved to not work out in the end, as Reddick grabbed no stage points from the opening stage.
In the second stage, Reddick had a potential run for the lead but got shuffled out on the final lap. Reddick grabbed just a single stage point in the second stage.
Tyler Reddick is close to advancing to the Round of 8, but he's going to need some good fortune and help from other drivers. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
Overall, Reddick didn't have the best race in Dega, and never really made any runs in the lead or showed anything that would convince you he had a race win in him. In the end, Reddick finished 16th and grabbed 22 points. Reddick enters a road course just two points back from Keselowski.
The Roval isn't exactly a must-win for Reddick. Many would expect him to outduel Keselowski and grab the two points. We cannot count out the fact that Keselowski would be the cutoff car, even though he is right now. Reddick sits below the line now, but if he can get a top 10 and some stage points, he will more than likely make the Round of 8 for the first time in his career.
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10th. Bubba Wallace (-9)
The pair of 23XI Racing teammates are the first two out, yet Bubba will feel like he missed his shot. In a world where Bubba enters below the cutline heading into a road course, the odds of a Round of 8 appearance are slim to none.
On the bright side, Bubba is just nine points out. In this season, Wallace has performed much better at roadcourses. I'm not saying he is a top-10 lock, but due to the nature of road courses, anything can happen.
Bubba Wallace needs a strong run Sunday to advance to the Round of 8. (Photo: USA Today Sports / Jay Biggerstaff)
Crew Chief Bootie Barker often gives up track position, so we could see an outcome where Bubba runs an alternate strategy, places top 10, a few cars DNF, and just like that he has a shot.
Talladega, though, was a major letdown for Wallace. Superspeedways have been his forte, yet he really only ran in the front for a few laps. Barker took two tires in the end to give up track position which didn't work out.
Bubba also got caught up in the final wreck but that didn't really affect the outcome. Bubba finished 23rd and only grabbed 14 points.
The odds are certainly against Wallace on the Roval, but a top-10 finish in the standings would be a major improvement.
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11th. Ross Chastain (-10)
Chastain was in a good spot before this race, yet he left 'Dega 10 points out of the clear.
Chastain was the only playoff driver to have a major issue, and it happened in the first stage. At the conclusion of the opening stage, Stenhouse ran out of fuel and Chastain and Kyle Busch got tangled up, with Chastain being the driver on the wrong end of the stick, leaving his car totaled after the incident.
Will Ross Chastain have a smile on his face after Sunday's cutoff race at the Roval at Charlotte? (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)
The wreck means Chastain only left Talladega having earned just one single point. On the positive end, however, Chastain is pretty solid at road courses. But it's going to take a massive points haul to pass Reddick and Keselowski, and potentially Wallace depending on how things are going.
All that, including keeping Busch at bay behind him as well, it's safe to say
Chastain is pretty much in must-win territory if he hopes to advance to the Round of 8.
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12th. Kyle Busch (-26)
Speaking of must-win, Busch is 26 points behind after a terrible start to the Round of 12 in Texas, and a mediocre race in Talladega where he finished 25th and just achieved 12 points.
I know I said Chastain more than likely needs to win, but Busch enters as really the only driver who is in a true must-win scenario. The odds of Busch making the Round of 8 via points are slim to none.
Kyle Busch faces a must-win situation Sunday at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval if he hopes to continue his quest for a third NASCAR Cup championship. (Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)
Instead, Busch will need 26 points just to catch Keselowski, and from there, let's say Brad leaves with just 20 points. It's still 46 points Busch needs, and that's not considering the fact that Keselowski would probably not be the cutoff driver anymore. All signs are pointing to a must-win since it's almost impossible for Busch to make it on points.
This round has not been nice for Busch at all, so I doubt we'll see a huge momentum swing with Kyle in victory lane in Charlotte. It appears the season will come to an end for him this week.
So that wraps up this week's edition of Breaking It Down. Who will win at the Roval to cause even more chaos?