Breaking It Down: What's wrong with Denny Hamlin this season?
Graphic courtesy Dylan Bauerle
Don’t reach for the panic button just yet, but at 26th in the NASCAR Cup points standings, Denny Hamlin’s back is officially against the wall.
After finishing the 2021 season with his best career finishing average and zero DNFs, leaving him with a third-place showing in the final standings, Hamlin seemed primed to make another strong push for his ever-so-elusive first championship this season.
However, this has not been the case at all. Instead, the Virginia native finds himself off to the worst start of a season he’s ever endured in his illustrious 16-year NASCAR Cup Series career.
With 3 DNFs and zero top-10s so far, Hamlin's abysmal start to the season seems like the work of Murphy's Law. If it's not one thing, it’s been another for the frustrated No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team, as they haven’t managed to turn speed into results at any race so far this year.
He hopes to begin the turnaround in this Sunday's road course race at Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas. But it's certainly been a test of endurance for Hamlin in the first five races, for sure.
Hamlin started the season with a 37th place finish in the Daytona 500 after a sliding Harrison Burton clipped his nose and took him and his JGR teammate, Christopher Bell, out of the race on lap 63. Although the wreck was unavoidable, the damage was done and Hamlin went home with his first-ever DNF in the Great American Race in 17 career starts.
Hamlin’s woes continued in Las Vegas where his car was one of the fastest in the field, but fell victim to his own mental errors when he broke his transaxle attempting to upshift following a green flag pitstop. He ended up finishing 32nd.
After the race, Hamlin explained that his muscle memory briefly forgot that NASCAR’s Gen 7 car had switched to a sequential shifter, instead of the traditional H pattern. The gaffe made for plenty of jokes throughout the week, even from Hamlin, who posted a picture of the straight-line gear sequence on Twitter with the caption “One step at a time.”
Last week, Atlanta’s new superspeedway style design seemed like the place where Hamlin could turn his season around. The three-time Daytona 500 champ flexed his muscle early on and was running third towards the end of Stage 2 when leader Kyle Larson lost control following a push from Hamlin’s bump draft.
Larson’s car collected Hamlin with his, taking both drivers out of the race and leaving Hamlin to finish a disappointing 29th.
After the race, Hamlin shared his thoughts on the team’s early struggles: “Overall, just frustrating, but we are running well. We are just finishing horrible. I’m just making some bad decisions. It’s easy in retrospect to say I should have done this, and I should have done that. But in the moment, you are trying to battle.”
Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson saw their respective days cut short last Sunday at Atlanta after this wreck. Photo: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today Sports
Frustrating is an understatement for Hamlin. Even in the two starts where nothing went wrong for Hamlin, his JGR Toyota Camry still lacked competitive speed. With a season-best finish of 13th at Phoenix and a 15th at Fontana, even Hamlin’s best results this year are alarmingly uncharacteristic for his Hall of Fame-worthy reputation.
One cannot simply chalk up Hamlin’s struggles to luck, mistakes, or lack of speed. Rather, it's a combination of all three and it's creating a sense of urgency to turn things around. With the new car creating more parity than ever to go along with five different winners through five races this year, nothing is guaranteed.
Already, there are two first-time winners in Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric who currently occupy playoff spots, and other drivers such as Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez are making their case for a spot as well. Even though there are still 21 races to qualify for the playoffs, the safety net of a win-and-you’re-in playoff scenario is shrinking and so is Hamlin’s time to turn things around.
To make matters worse, Hamlin is 41 years old and his prime is behind him. He didn’t even win a race until the playoffs last year and he certainly cannot afford to endure another drought like that if he intends to compete for a championship this year.
Hamlin is a seasoned veteran and he’s more than capable of overcoming this slow start, but the pressure to produce results is mounting by the week. It would not be the first time we’ve seen a veteran driver’s performance fall off a cliff towards the end of the career, but Hamlin certainly believes he’s got a lot left in the tank.
One thing he doesn't need to worry about is contract status. He signed a multi-year extension last year. Even so, he’s earned the right for fans to be patient with his turnaround, but pay close attention: if things do not improve quickly for Hamlin, the narrative may not be so friendly for him later in the season.