Is Chase Elliott ready for his NASCAR Cup comeback?
It’s been quite a few races without Chase Elliott driving the No. 9 car for Hendrick Motorsports and his absence has been felt by drivers and fans alike.
Over a month has passed since Elliott’s infamous snowboarding accident, but he healed quickly and will be back in his trusty steed for Sunday’s race at Martinsville Speedway.
If you are not caught up, Elliott fractured his tibia on March 3rd before the NASCAR Cup Series race in Las Vegas. Elliott had surgery following the accident, spent much of his recovery in Colorado – where the accident and surgery both took place – and was expected to miss around six weeks.
Injuries like his are hard to assign a return date to. Speculation was that Elliott would be back in six weeks, ready to race. As it turns out, his recovery was closer to five weeks – but what’s a few days between friends, right?
The interesting thing is that there was virtual radio silence from the Hendrick camp both right after the accident and surgery and few updates afterward. Then, all of a sudden earlier this week, Team Hendrick put out a press release that Elliott would be back for this Sunday’s race at Martinsville.
Sure, that’s good news, but it wasn’t exactly expected as soon as it occurred, either. It was more likely that he’d be back next week or even the week after. But that’s one of the benefits of youth and being in great physical shape. Because he only had one break in his tibia, it healed quickly.
Elliott’s car to date has been driven by both Josh Berry and Jordan Taylor. In terms of owners points, the absence of Elliott hasn't hurt too much, given the decent success of his replacements.
Taylor was in the final qualifying group at COTA and finished 24th, while Berry finished 29th at Las Vegas, 10th at Phoenix, 18th at Atlanta, a near-shocking second at Richmond and was 27th in what would prove to be his swan song in Elliott’s car, last week on the dirt at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Elliott’s absence broke his streak of 254 consecutive race starts. With the NASCAR rules for the playoffs, a driver must race in every event. If an injury is to occur, a playoff waiver would be needed.
Last year Kurt Busch got a playoff waiver because of his concussion sustained in Pocono. In the end, Busch gave up that waiver due to him not being medically cleared to return to race.
And let’s not forget Kurt’s younger brother Kyle, who was in a horrendous wreck in the season-opening Xfinity race in 2015 at Daytona, missed 11 Cup races, came back, was granted a waiver and ultimately wound up winning the championship in one of the greatest comeback stories NASCAR has ever seen.
Given that Elliott is NASCAR’s most popular driver and while the injury did put him behind, NASCAR has not yet announced if it will issue him a waiver for missing six races due to his injury and recovery.
However, if Elliott were to win a race – even as early as Sunday at Martinsville – it would appear likely he would then earn a waiver from NASCAR, based upon other precedents such as the Busch brothers.
So that leaves the question: what does Elliott need to do to make the playoffs and challenge for another title? Like we just said, and not to be cute in saying it, but if he wins, he’s in (the playoffs, that is – leaving NASCAR no choice but to grant him a waiver).
But let’s say he doesn’t win a race in the next 18 regular season races before the 10-race playoffs begin?
Currently, heading into Martinsville, the ninth race of the Cup season, Elliott is 34th in the standings, 283 points out of first place. It would be very difficult for him to make the playoffs solely on points, given he has six races less than all other full-time Cup drivers.
One other key thing about getting a waiver: he has to be in the top 30 before NASCAR would grant said waiver.
One other thing to consider: If you were to ask Elliott fans if he could win one race out of 18, many – if not most -- would likely say yes every time. Statistics also show that he wins once out of every 10 races in the last five years with Hendrick Motorsports.
Looking at the 18 remaining regular season races before the playoffs begin, and if Elliott remains healthy, some of the best places he stands a better than average chance of winning include Sonoma, the inaugural street race in downtown Chicago, the Brickyard 400 road course race at Indianapolis and also Watkins Glen.
His average finish at Sonoma is fifth, Indy being 10th and Watkins Glen being third. With those stats and four road courses on the table, there is a great chance Elliott will win one of those races to make the playoffs.
Out of the other remaining races, some of the races he has had great previous success at, include Michigan with an eighth-place average finish, Charlotte with a ninth-place finish, and New Hampshire, also with a ninth place average.
Some tracks he already has multiple wins on in the remaining schedule would be Watkins Glen (2 wins), Dover (also 2 wins), and Atlanta where he won last year. Statistics show that if Elliott is to return with those 18 remaining races, he would be able to pick up a win somewhere to make the playoffs.
With Elliott back this weekend, will drivers question his respect or treat him with respect? The most recent races have been very physical with many drivers losing respect for each other.
Elliott, of course, has not been a part of these races. Will he be treated as if he was? Will drivers trust him in a draft at a superspeedway like Talladega if he isn’t 100% confident in his leg?
These questions have to be asked if Sunday shows he may have rushed a bit too quickly back into the cockpit. Nevertheless, fans are ready for the most popular driver to get back on-track – and Sunday we’ll find out if he’s equally ready to get back on-track.