NASCAR Cup metrics vs. predictions: Who advances and who makes early exits?
For the first time ever, AutoRacingDigest.com presents our metric-based NASCAR Cup playoff predictions!
We will be using metrics with specific details on drivers to create the perfect metric-based driver projections for the playoffs.
Here is how the metric is broken down.
We call it "The Everidge Metric". Here is the scale:
* 40% based on driver stats on track and track type this season
* 20% on driver stats historically at each of the 10 playoff tracks/track type
* 20% based on current momentum
* And 20% team success on track discipline.
So each stat has a weight to it. We will also take into account how many points each driver enters the playoffs with.
Here's an example:
Driver 'A" heads into the playoffs with a strong 30-point lead above the cutline. This driver does well in the first 3 races and advances into the next round, but since the driver struggles in the quarterfinal round, our metric shows that same driver is eliminated despite being a top driver. This happens virtually every year, look back at Kyle Busch just two years ago.
Then let's say "Driver B" barely qualifies for the playoffs, but due to our metric, wins a first-round race so he automatically advances to the Round of 12. Make sense? These predictions are only metric-based, not my opinion (I'll throw that in at the end). So, let's crunch up those numbers and find out where the "Everidge Metric" puts all these drivers.
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ROUND OF 16:
My metric had Kevin Harvick winning Darlington, Martin Truex Jr. winning Kansas and Kyle Larson winning Bristol, so those drivers automatically advance to the next round. Here's what the metric chewed up for the four eliminated drivers.
16th. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2,060 points)
Our metric didn't do Stenhouse Jr. any favors. Since winning in Daytona, the speed hasn't really been there for the JTG driver. Good results have come periodically but the speed for the team has been off and on. My metric had Stenhouse taking just 17 points from Darlington, 18 from Kansas, and 20 from Bristol. Of course, this is just my "Everidge Metric" which does not take into account things such as accidents. Stenhouse may pick up more points from a specific race depending on wrecks involving other drivers. Otherwise, Stenhouse finds himself as the last of the pack.
15th. Ryan Blaney (2,078 points)
What a weird year it has been for the Team Penske driver. Blaney has been slightly above average all year and would have easily made the playoffs without a win this year. With that being said, he hasn't really picked up the results consistently this year. My metric had Blaney taking 25 points from both Darlington and Kansas and then finishing with just 20 from Bristol. The first three tracks of the playoffs don't line up well for Blaney, and considering he didn't do much in the regular season to add playoff points and give him a buffer, he finds himself finishing 15th.
14th. Michael McDowell (2,085 points)
If you told me at the start of the year that McDowell would finish ahead of Blaney, I would have called you crazy! Here we are then, in a universe where a Front Row Motorsports car takes home more points than a driver at a top Ford team. The metric had McDowell take 22 points from Darlington, 25 from Kansas, and a solid 31 from Bristol. But unfortunately, that likely will not be enough.
This year has been good for FRM's confidence during the playoffs given the results. It would be the second year in a row the 34 car made the postseason, and finishing ahead of Blaney would put a smile on a few in the FRM garage.
13th. Bubba Wallace (2,089 points)
Close but no cigar! My metric had both Bubba and teammate Tyler Reddick finishing with the same amount of points, but Reddick would win the tiebreaker. The 23 team has been real fast and consistent for the entire second half of the year. Bubba ends up falling just short of advancing to the second round because of Bristol. In terms of Kansas, Bubba won that race last year, so there is a chance he could repeat. Just making the playoffs was a big step for this team, so considering he would miss the Round of 12 by just one point is still a good sign for the future. Now, if only Bubba would have won a stage this year, then he would have been in. Bubba is the only driver entering without any additional playoff points. My metric says he picks up 23 from Darlington, a whopping 42 from Kansas, and just 24 from Bristol. Oh, how so close for the 23xi driver.
ROUND OF 12:
My metric had Reddick winning Texas, William Byron winning Talladega and Chris Buescher winning the Charlotte road course. These winners make the eliminated drivers very interesting. Both Buscher and Reddick would have been right on the cutline and one of them would have been eliminated. But since both drivers won, each finds himself advancing. Therefore, some of the drivers who have been eliminated this round may be shocking!
12th. Ross Chastain ( 2,170 points)
From Championship Four last year to 12th place in the matter of one season. Last year may have been an anomaly for the Trackhouse driver and his team. This year Chastain picked up a win but hasn't had the same results since. On the other hand, his teammate Daniel Suarez failed to make the playoffs. So, the speed hasn't been there lately and therefore it's no surprise that Chastain finds himself this low.
The good news for Chastain is that some of these playoff tracks align in his favor. Of course, Talledega is this round, a race he found himself in Victory Lane previously. My metric saw Chastain brings home 23 from Texas, 30 from 'Dega, and 20 from Charlotte. Unfortunately, it's just not good enough for him to be a real threat for the Round of 8.
11th. Christopher Bell (2,184 points)
Bell lands just in front of Chastain to conclude an 11th-place finish to the year. I don't think that's exactly what Bell was hoping for after such a solid 2022 season. Ideally, this was going to be the year Bell took that huge jump and really pushed to be the best JGR driver. Unfortunately, he ends up being no better than 3rd best.
My metric sees Bell take 27 from Texas, 25 from Dega, and a solid 37 from Charlotte, but that would prove not enough in the end. But a message of caution: watch out for Bell at the Charlotte Road Course. He could definitely pick up a win there and clinch advancement into the Round of 8.
10th. Joey Logano (2,186 points)
This may be the first real shocker of this predictor. Due to both Buescher and Reddick winning (both had less than Logano in terms of points) make it to the next round due to wins. This means Logano not only misses out on the Round of 8 but nonetheless finishes in 10th.
It's been a weird year for the 2022 champion. He obviously has had the speed this year, but it seems he has slowed down. Throw in the fact that there is a road course is this round, and the fact we have a superspeedway, and the metric spits out bad results for the Penske driver.
He will take 33 points from Texas, just 21 from Dega, and 32 from Charlotte. A bad end to a good year for Logano!
9th. Brad Keselowski (2,187)
It is quite sad to see Keselowski miss out on the Round of 8, but maybe he has been too nice to his teammate Buescher?
My metric had Buescher win as mentioned before, so that means Keselowski misses out on the next round despite having more points.
We can throw this back to just this past week where Keselowski pushed Buescher to the win, and we can count how many times Brad has helped Buscher this year, and maybe now that will backfire on him.
I'm not saying he has been too nice, but Brad gets eliminated here because of his teammate, which means Buescher makes the round of 8, Who would have guessed that? This is still a good result and a real emphasis on the resurgence of Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing.
The metric had Keselowski pick up 39 from Texas, 30 from Dega, and just 21 from Charlotte. Maybe next year will be different, a return of the old Special K perhaps?
ROUND OF 8:
My metic had Kyle Busch winning Vegas, Byron winning Miami, and a nonplayoff driver winning Martinsville. This leads to some interesting scenarios. If Busch didn't win his home race in Vegas, then he would not have made it to the championship. The driver just missing out on the championship had more points than Busch, but won't make it. Also, with a nonplayoff driver winning Martinsville, that means two spots are up for grabs via points. So let's see who missed out.
8th. Chris Buescher (2,264 points)
The on-fire RFK driver finally hits a stop and misses out on the championship. If you had asked if Buescher would take being an Elite 8 driver, he would have taken it every day of the week. The bad news for Buescher is that none of these Round of 8 tracks line up in his favor and with the recent struggles at these tracks, and the fact they would be chasing a win, the metric sees him missing out.
Buescher takes 27 from Vegas, 26 from Miami, and 24 from Martinsville. It's a big step forward for the team and 8th place is nothing to pout about for Buescher, the best in his career.
7th. Tyler Reddick (2,276 points)
Reddick only advanced to the Round of 8 because of his win in the previous round. He also only barely made the Round of 12, but it's funny how these things work out. Finishing 7th would be the best in Reddick's career thus far. It would also be a great result for 23xi and a big stepping stone for the future of the team.
My metric has Reddick getting 25 from Vegas, 32 from Miami, and finally only 22 points in Martinsville. It's kind of the same situation as Buescher, where Reddick's weaker tracks are the ones found in the Round of 8. It's onto the next year for Reddick. A 7th place finish in his first year with 23xi would be phenomenal!
6th. Kevin Harvick (2,288 points)
It's been a weird year for Stewart Haas Racing. Only the retiring Harvick made the playoffs, and considering two Penske cars and both RFK cars made the playoffs, just the single car from SHR could cause some concerns. Nevertheless, Harvick has picked up the speed recently, which gives him good momentum for his final year in NASCAR.
My metric sees Harvick grab 31 points from Vegas, 30 from Miami, and 27 from Martinsville. Harvick falls just short of the championship in his final Cup go-round.
At the end of the day, SHR has been terrible this year, so if Harvick can close the season out with a 6th place, at least one garage can be somewhat happy.
5th. Martin Truex Jr (2,301 points)
Here's the kicker. Busch's win in Vegas kicks out Truex! If it was based on points, Truex would be in the final 4 with Busch missing out, but since Busch won, there was always going to be that one unlucky driver. This time around it's the regular season champion, Martin Truex Jr.
It's not like MTJ struggled in this round either. My metric saw Truex get 36 points from Vegas, 37 from Miami, and 36 from Martinsville, all really good point grabs.
But there's a catch! His lack of good results in the previous round, mixed in with Busch's win, ultimately means Truex misses the final. This is the first time I don't agree with my own metric -- as you will see with my picks at the end.
CHAMPIONSHIP FOUR -- Larson, Byron, Busch, and Hamlin make the winner-take-all final round:
Here is the big news! My metric did not have any of the Championship Four drivers win this race! This of course has happened before.
Therefore, the standings are based on points and not who won the race. So, let's get into it. Here's how it breaks down:
4th. Kyle Busch
Busch finally slots into the 4th place spot. A win in Vegas got him here but the metric thinks he will be the worst playoff driver in this race. It's not like Busch is terrible at Phoenix -- he has a 9th-place average finish. But overall, that won't be good enough here. The metric has him finishing 8th place in the race, and also finishing last among the final four in points.
Making the Championship Four in his first year at RCR is a great sign for the team's future and should give them momentum for 2024.
3rd. Denny Hamlin
As per usual with Denny, he gets all the way to the finish line but ultimately comes up short. This year is no different for Hamlin. Throughout the playoffs, he cruised to this championship race, but my metric had him finishing in 7th place, which isn't good enough. It seems every year Hamlin always has a championship-worthy car but can't finish the job. The metric follows suit. A 3rd place finish yet again for Denny.
2nd. Kyle Larson
Speaking of falling just short, spoiler alert, Larson loses out to one of his Hendrick Motorsports teammates. Just two years ago we had a couple of HMS cars battling in Phoenix, and it is much of the same this time around as well. Unlike 2021 though, Larson won't have that magical pitstop and beat out Chase Elliott. Instead, this time around, Larson loses out to his teammate.
My metric had Larson finishing in 4th place, which won't be enough. Of course, Larson has a clutch factor which isn't accounted for, as well as experience. Larson won't be happy with 2nd, but that's where he lands.
The 2023 NASCAR Cup Champion for the first time ever: William Byron!
Congrats to Willy B! My metric sees the HMS driver get his first championship! This whole year, Byron has been on it every race, picking up results left and right. Byron also won the most amount of races as well. He came up just short of Truex in terms of winning the regular season championship, but this is the one that really matters for Byron.
The metric had Byron finishing in 2nd place this race, which in fact, would be enough for the big trophy. It's another year where HMS won the title and a 3rd different driver in all of those last 3 championships. It's time for Byron to become a legit top-tier driver, and a championship trophy with his name on it is the icing on the cake!
So that's AutoRacingDigest.com's 'Everidge Metric". Compared to my actual predictions below, I would say it's pretty close, with a few changes here and there.
We'll see how things play out, but don't be too surprised if things turn out at least somewhat similar to how the metric predicted. I did this last year on paper and it was very accurate with just a few drivers here and there changed. Anyway, as promised, here are my predictions.
Championship 4: Byron, Truex, Hamlin and Larson (Truex wins)
Round of 8: Busch, Logano, Buescher and Reddick
Round of 12: Keselowski, Bell, Harvick and Wallace
Round of 16: Chastain, Blaney, McDowell and Stenhouse Jr