FanGraphs Projects Huge Season For Astros Slugger
The Houston Astros have a wealth of offensive options. But only one can have the highest projections for the 2024 season.
MLB.com recently wrote about every team’s top projected player. The projections were based on Streamer projections on FanGraphs and boils down to the highest-projected player based on wins above replacement, or WAR.
The highest WAR projection for any player in baseball was Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr., the reigning National League MVP, who is projected to have a 7.4 WAR.
The top Astros player in those projections was Yordan Alvarez, who is projected to have a 5.7 WAR and is ranked sixth among all hitters in the projections.
The numbers that FanGraphs is projecting are numbers that Alvarez and the Astros would love to lock in — 39 home runs and 113 RBI in 141 games with a 12.9% walk rate and a slash line of .299/.399/.591/.414.
Injuries limited Alvarez to 114 games last season, but in spite of that he put great power numbers — 31 home runs and 97 RBI — along with a slash line of .293/.407/.583/.990.
The best comparison to his projected numbers is his 2021 season, his second full season. He played in 144 games and blasted 33 home runs and drove in 104 runs. He also batted .277.
Alvarez has now hit at least 30 home runs in each of his last three seasons and has 129 career home runs. Recently, MLB.com proposed 13 players that could reach 500 home runs in their career and Alvarez made the list.
If Alvarez continues to work as the team’s primary designated hitter and remain healthy, his projected numbers are not out of the question.
The other Astros ranked in the Top 30 of projected WAR for 2024 are Kyle Tucker (4.8), Alex Bregman (4.5) and Jose Altuve (4.0).
