Houston Astros Looking for Increased Control from Lance McCullers Jr.

Lance McCullers Jr. has been excellent for the Houston Astros since his return from the injured list, but there is still room for improvement with his control.

Author:
Leo Morgenstern
Publish date:
Oct 3, 2022 12:00 PM EDT

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are not taking it easy during the final series of the regular season. As they welcome the Philadelphia Phillies to town — who are still fighting for a playoff berth — Dusty Baker plans to start three of his very best: Lance McCullers Jr., Justin Verlander, and Framber Valdez.

With a series sweep, the Astros can tie their franchise record for most wins in a single season. The 2019 squad won 107 games on their way to a third straight AL West title. The 2022 team currently sits at 104-55.

Houston will have the clear advantage in games two and three, with Verlander facing Ranger Suárez on Tuesday and Valdez facing Bailey Falter on Wednesday. The first game of the series, however, will pose a bit of a challenge.

It sounds a little ridiculous to call a pitcher as talented as McCullers a weak link, but in this case it’s true. Verlander and Valdez are both Cy Young candidates, while McCullers is merely really good. He does not give the Astros quite as high of a chance to win as either of the Killer V’s. Moreover, McCullers will have the toughest opponent, squaring off against Phillies stud Aaron Nola.

Houston Astros Starting Pitcher Lance McCullers Jr.
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

If McCullers wants to give Houston the best chance of winning — both in this particular series and beyond — he needs to shore up his control. In his seven starts this season, he has already walked 21 batters. That gives him 4.54 walks per nine innings. The average American League starting pitcher is walking just 2.76 batters per nine.

McCullers has the fourth-highest walk rate among 98 AL starting pitchers with at least 40 IP. The three pitchers ahead of him have already lost their jobs as big league starters. No one else in the top 25 will be starting a game in the postseason. Point being, it’s unusual for a pitcher this talented to have a walk rate this high.

The Astros’ righty has been able to survive his high walk rate thus far by limiting hits and striking out batters when he needs to. Only two of the 21 batters he has walked this season have come around to score. Eventually though, the walks are going to start hurting him. McCullers has walked four or more batters in three of his seven starts this season. He can’t continue giving away that many free passes and hope to keep runs off the board.

So, what does McCullers need to do to reduce his walk rate?

Foremost, he needs to throw strikes earlier in counts. McCullers' first-pitch strike rate, which has always been a little low, is worse this season than ever before. He gets a strike on the first pitch just 51.4% of the time, while the league average rate is 62%.

When McCullers starts a plate appearance behind 1-0, he is far more likely to walk the batter. When he throws a first-pitch ball, his walk rate jumps to 19%.

When he throws the first pitch for a strike, on the other hand, his walk rate is a much more manageable 6.9%. Gaining more 0-1 counts, therefore, would go a long way towards helping McCullers decrease his walk rate. If you’re looking for something to keep an eye on in his final start of the regular season, it’s first-pitch strikes.

Lance McCullers Jr. is a great pitcher, and he has done terrific work for the Astros since returning from the IL. However, his sky-high walk rate is a ticking time bomb. Eventually, a good team is going to take advantage of all the free passes McCullers offers.

If he can improve his control and get his walk rate down, McCullers will be a better player and the Astros will be a better team.