Predicting the Houston Astros ALCS Roster

The Houston Astros will likely resort to 13 pitchers, but who will the club pick up for the American League Championship Series?

Author:
Kenny Van Doren
Publish date:
Oct 17, 2022 7:00 PM EDT

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Houston Astros

The American League Championship Series is scheduled to start Wednesday, and with the current roster set at 12 pitchers and 14 position players, the Houston Astros are more than likely to revert to 13 pitchers and 13 position players.

Will Smith and Phil Maton — out for the postseason — were both left off the American League Division Series roster with the Astros carrying starting pitchers José Urquidy, Luis García and Cristian Javier in the bullpen.

It worked out for the best. García kept Houston's pitching gem in tact in Game 3 of the ALDS while Urquidy waited his turn in case of emergency. All three of these pitchers will make the ALCS roster while they vie to start Game 4 behind Lance McCullers Jr.'s expected Game 3 start.

Whichever of the two that isn't handed a start will be long-relief options out of the bullpen. And after Saturday's outing, García has proven he should be considered to start Game 4.

Starting pitchers: Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García

Manager Dusty Baker has already named Justin Verlander the Astros' Game 1 starter with Framber Valdez and McCullers presumably following for Games 2 and 3. And García is set as the fourth starter on this projection, but either Urquidy or Javier could also slip into the schedule.

Urquidy has impressed on the World Series stage, but not so much in the ALDS and ALCS. He didn't appear in any capacity during the ALDS, but over 11 postseason appearances since 2019, Urquidy has amassed a 4.05 ERA. That number is inflated by a shelling against Boston last year where he was given the hook after five outs.

Urquidy has shown his best numbers in the World Series, starting two of his four outings and totaling 11.1 innings of work — his most of any series in the postseason. He allowed just two combined runs in that sample, striking out 11 total batters in the process without one walk.

Of the three, though, Javier posted the best numbers in the starting role during the regular season. His 2.54 ERA was sported behind 30 appearances, 25 of those being starts. Javier also struck out 11.74 batters per nine innings which was third best on the staff.

Bullpen: Ryan Pressly, Ryne Stanek, José Urquidy, Cristian Javier, Rafael Montero, Héctor Neris, Will Smith, Bryan Abreu and Hunter Brown

Will Smith fills into the final bullpen spot for the 13-man pitching staff. Baker has called for a lefty not only during the regular season but during all postseason series he's managed for Houston.

General manager James Click and the front office left Smith off in the first October series, but the lefty's time to make the roster is now. Smith pivoted his season when he arrived in Houston at the trade deadline.

The lefty tossed 22 innings in relief for the Astros, yielding eight runs across his 24 appearances. Smith's raw numbers don't tell his full story. Houston's coaching staff instilled a changeup back into the lefty's arsenal after not throwing the pitch for two seasons while also increasing his slider usage over that of his four-seam fastball.

Smith threw only 11 changeups — nine to right-handed hitters. Opposing hitters put four of them in play with zero of them resulting in hits. There isn't much to the sample, but if Smith makes the roster, watching his pitch selection is worth the time.

If Smith isn't the answer, the Astros should consider Seth Martinez for the final bullpen seat. Martinez was optioned Sept. 16 as the corresponding move for Verlander's return from the injured list.

Martinez thrives against righties. The 28-year-old held his split to a .135/.214/.180 clip in 99 plate appearances, but lefties gave Martinez more trouble. The opposite matchup slashed a .777 OPS against Martinez in 56 meetings, showing the reliever would better against a more righty-favored roster.

The New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians have both showed cards of three of four players that can hit from the left side, including multiple switch hitters in Cleveland's nine. When it comes down to Smith or Martinez, Houston could lean to the lefty arm with postseason experience.

Catchers: Martín Maldonado and Christian Vázquez

Infielders: Yuli Gurriel, Trey Mancini, José Altuve, Alex Bregman and Jeremy Peña

Outfielders: Yordan Álvarez, Chas McCormick and Kyle Tucker

Utility: Aledmys Díaz, Mauricio Dubón and David Hensley

There's a case the Astros could stick with their ALDS roster for the ALCS. It's not a strong one, but with an abundance of starting options, short-relief options will be saved with piggyback outings from arms like Urquidy, Javier and García.

But it's an aggressive plan. There's never a time a team can't have too much pitching, and of the bench bats that may fall off the roster, Jake Meyers is the one to go. The center fielder started Game 2 of the ALDS before being pinch hit for after a pair of strikeouts.

And although Meyers could piece together better plate appearances than Mauricio Dubón, his versatility doesn't extend to the lengths of his fellow center field option. Meyers is off the roster for this ALCS option, leaving David Hensley on for his versatility and better output at the plate than the second-year outfielder.