Would Wilson Contreras Get Playing Time in Houston?

The Houston Astros continuously started Martín Maldonado over Christian Vázquez at every opportunity. Why should Willson Contreras be any different?

Author:
Ben Silver
Publish date:
Nov 11, 2022 3:48 PM EST

In this story:

Chicago Cubs

Willson Contreras to the Houston Astros was already a done deal. The trade was agreed to by the Chicago Cubs, all general manager James Click needed was owner Jim Cranes' signature to finalize the deal.

But that signature never came.

Arguably the best catcher in baseball never left the National League Central, languishing on a non-contender to end the season. For such a slim price, one that would have granted the Astros another formidable hitter at the bottom of the lineup and exclusive negotiating rights through the beginning of free agency, it's a wonder the Cubs didn't pull the trigger.

The reason for that hesitation, is now clear.

Manager Dusty Baker was against the move. He likes Martín Maldonado as his catcher. Maldonado knows the staff well while playing good defense, and Houston was loathe to give up three more seasons of José Urquidy, Contreras' counterpart in the proposed deal.

Instead, the Astros pursued Christian Vázquez, not as a starter, but as a backup. By nearly every metric, Vázquez is a better player than Maldonado.

The former Red Sox's OPS+ was 99 in 2022 compared to Maldonado's 60. For his career, Vázquez's 85 OPS+ trumps Maldonado's 72.

Over the past two seasons, Vázquez is worth 12 DRS, Maldonado has accrued only 1. Since 2018, Vázquez has saved 30.8 runs through pitch framing; Maldonado only had 9.3.

If Vázquez wasn't going to start over Maldonado, then perhaps no one will. The only edge Vázquez lacked was knowledge of Houston's pitching staff, and Maldonado's bond has only grown deeper through the postseason.

If Contreras does sign with the Astros in the offseason, what more can he bring to the table than Vázquez. Sure, the former-Cub is a better hitter, but he's also a worse defender than either Vázquez or Maldonado.

Baker has shown his hand. He likes Maldonado, and unless his position is forced, then in all likelihood, he will keep starting his preferred catcher through 2023.

Contreras would certainly get more playing time than Vázquez did in 2022, but it might not be enough to warrant the mega-deal that his services require in 2023.