A's Non-Tender Candidates Ahead of Friday's Deadline
On Tuesday we had the Rule 5 roster deadline, where teams filled up their 40-man rosters ahead of the Rule 5 Draft in early December, and tomorrow we'll have the non-tender deadline, which is when arbitration eligible players are generally tendered contracts though there are usually some exceptions.
Essentially it's a team saying that they'd like to retain a player's services and that they'll figure out the money later.
Sometimes, however, a team may feel that a player is getting too expensive and can choose to non-tender them, or make them a free agent. This is where John Fisher's A's come in.
The A's finished with an estimated payroll of around $50M in 2022, and their estimated 2023 payroll currently sits at $35M with the subtractions of Elvis Andrus and Stephen Piscotty. The A's aren't likely to spend a whole lot this winter, and they could kick things off by non-tendering a player or two, so let's run down each of the five candidates this winter.
This is just a technicality. He could technically be non-tendered, but he's much more likely to get traded. Either way, his projected $3.5MM salary next season is more than likely going to be paid by another club.
Kemp is an interesting test case for how this winter is going to go for the A's. By all accounts, he should stick with the club. He had a rough start to the season, but in the second half he hit .278 with a .342 on-base and was a catalyst for the A's offense. He also walked nearly as much as he struck out, 21 to 19, and that high contact approach has been something the A's seem to be shifting towards. He's also expressed a desire to stay in Oakland.
That all said, Kemp is projected to make $3.9MM next season in his final year of arbitration before hitting free agency, and unless the A's sign a "splashy" free agent (over $4MM), he could be the A's highest-paid player in 2023.
There is a chance that he is tendered a contract and then traded this winter as well, with a team like the White Sox seeing Kemp as a guy they could use for depth purposes, or to be their starting second baseman. Nothing is guaranteed for Tony Kemp this winter, but if he makes it through the off-season on the A's roster, the fans would love to have him back.
All-Star Paul Blackburn (in case you'd forgotten) is projected to make $1.9MM next season, and while he doesn't seem like a non-tender candidate, the A's could look to trade him this winter to a team looking for starting pitching depth.
Blackburn had a breakout first couple of months of the 2022 campaign, but faltered a bit starting in June and his season was cut short due to injury in August. He finished the year with a 4.28 ERA. The A's could feel that he's had his opportunities over the last six seasons and be curious to see what a prospect left unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft could do in the big leagues instead.
Of course, the A's would save a little money in the process too if that was the case.
Deolis Guerra
Guerra was mentioned as a non-tender candidate in MLB Trade Rumor's A's Offseason Preview, but he could end up sticking around.
Guerra underwent Tommy John in April, so he likely won't be ready for the start of the season, but from what he showed in 2021, he could be an innings eater. He made 53 appearances and totaled 65 2/3 innings with a 4.11 ERA and was equally as effective against lefties and righties.
The role he seemed destined to inherit, the "Yusmeiro Petit" of the bullpen, seems to have been passed off to Domingo Acevedo under new manager Mark Kotsay, but having them in the same bullpen would present more bridge options to get to those late-inning arms. Or Guerra could be the bridge, and Acevedo could become a consistent late inning reliever, too.
Guerra is projected to make $900K in 2023, and with the big league minimum bumping up to $720K, that doesn't seem like a big enough difference to warrant a non-tender.
The final non-tender candidate is Ramón Laureano. It would be a little shocking if the A's just flat-out non-tendered Laureano this winter, but it wouldn't be as surprising if they moved on from him in a trade.
Ramón is projected for a $3.6MM salary next year, and the A's could find that to be a little pricey for a veteran that hit .211 with a .287 OBP in 2022. He's also inching closer to 30 and the closer he gets, the more his potential trade value goes down. While he won't be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign, it could all come down to how the A's feel about their other in-house options in the outfield.
Those options include Seth Brown, Cristian Pache, Conner Capel, Cal Stevenson, Cody Thomas, Michael Guldberg, Chase Calabuig, and Max Schuemann, not to mention Tony Kemp if he's still around.
Laureano has a ton of upside, but he also has been dealing with injuries and suspensions since 2020 and has only played in over 100 games in a season once. It wouldn't be surprising to see his name floated in some trade rumors this winter in an effort to see what they can get for him while opening up playing time for some of their younger guys, but he's not likely to be non-tendered.
The A's could always hold onto him and hope that he rebuilds some value in the first half before ultimately trading him, too.
We may get our first glimpse of the A's plans for this winter with how they approach Friday's deadline.