Ken Waldichuk: 2023 A's Player Outlook

Ken Waldichuk showed flashes of what his future could hold in his first stint in the big leagues

The A's acquired Ken Waldichuk as part of the Frankie Montas/Lou Trivino deal with the New York Yankees last summer, and after making four starts in Triple-A Las Vegas, he made his big league debut against the Washington Nationals on September 1. He went just 4.2 innings in that one, allowing five hits, walking four, giving up a run, and striking out six. 

Things were a little shakier in his next three starts against the Braves, Rangers, and Astros, as he totaled just 13 innings and gave up 13 runs. He was a little better in his fifth start, this time against Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets. He went five frames and gave up four runs, but three of those were on a first inning home run to Pete Alonso. From there, he allowed just one run over the final four innings, and earned his first Major League win. 

Over his final two starts, he combined for 12 innings pitched, allowed six hits, one earned run, walked three and struck out 12. He also earned his second career win against Shohei Ohtani on the season's final day. 

Ken Waldichuk is firmly in the mix to join the Oakland A's Opening Day rotation in 2023, with fellow trade acquisition Kyle Muller likely presenting his biggest competition. Muller has one option remaining while Waldichuk has three. 

So what should we expect from Waldichuk in 2023? 

The 25-year-old southpaw is on the projected Opening Day roster that I released recently, beating out Muller for first dibs in the rotation. He's in there because his ceiling looks to be the highest of the MLB-ready pitchers the A's have gotten back in recent trades, and he already showed a good mix of strikeouts and command that can play at the big league level. 

We see a lot of pitchers have success at the Coliseum, but struggle on the road. The player he was acquired for is one example. Waldichuk's numbers follow suit, with him posting a 3.63 ERA at home in 17.1 innings, and a 6.23 ERA in the same number of innings on the road. The story switches if you look at his FIP, however. He had a 5.82 FIP at home, largely due to his strikeout rate falling to just 5.19 per nine. On the road he struck out nearly 12 per nine and his FIP sat at 2.77. 

ZIPS has him projected to make 25 starts for the A's this season going 111.2 innings, holding a 3.79 ERA, and improving on his strikeout rate by about 1.5 per nine, up to 9.91. They also have his walks per nine going up to 3.87, which is a little better than it was in his time with the Yankees, but post-trade he walked just 1.45 per nine in Las Vegas (18.2 IP), and 2.60 per nine with the A's across 34.2 innings. 

It'll be interesting to watch that walk rate this season and see if the A's had him change something up after he was acquired. If the walk rate he posted in a small sample in the big leagues holds, or he posts one similar to it, then his ERA could be even lower that the 3.79 projection, which is already better than the league average of 4.05 for starters from a year ago. 

While that may not sound like much, being a little better than league average in his first full big league season could be a huge step towards being well above league average. With prospects, people tend to forget that not all progress is linear and it typically doesn't happen overnight. 

The key for the lefty to take that leap forward in 2023 is going to be how well his fastball is playing. Last season batters hit .311 against his heater, with an expected average of .284. It also had a hard hit rate of 50%, which is pretty high. According to Brooks Baseball, his heater was also hit hard pretty much everywhere in the zone. 

One reason for this could be that when he got ahead in the count at 0-1 against a right-handed hitter, there was a 68.5% chance he was going to throw a fastball. Hitters know that data, and they'll go up hunting fastball. That's where a few more changeups can come in handy. 

In a recent interview with Brodie Brazil, former A's catcher Stephen Vogt said "Ken Waldichuk is a very, very good pitcher. Not just a good arm, but pitcher." Vogt would know, since he caught Waldichuk's final start of the season when he went 7 shutout innings against the Angels. 

Where he ends up slotted in the A's rotation could have an impact on how that first month looks for him. If he starts one of the first three games, he'd face the Angels, then the Rays. Those are two good teams with playoff aspirations looking to get off to a good start in 2023. 

The other avenue would be facing Cleveland in game four or five of the season. They're a peskier team for a young pitcher to face because they make loads of contact. If they're finding holes, they could run up his pitch count pretty quick. Or he could pitch to contact and make quick work of them. That start could go either way.

From there, he'd still have to face Tampa Bay, but then he'd have a date with the New York Mets, one of the favorites to win the World Series. With his track record, he'd probably end up facing off against Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander, and earn another win against a generational pitcher. 

The lefty has talent, and depending on which publication you look at, you might find him on the back half of MLB's top 100 prospects. Pipeline has him as the #3 left-handed pitching prospect in the game right now, so he has the tools. This season will be about putting those tools to work.

Prediction: 8-8, 3.65 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9

Player Outlook: Shea Langeliers