Projecting the A's Opening Day Roster v1.0
Note: This was originally posted before the A.J. Puk trade. That move will be reflected in version 2.0 of the roster, but is also detailed here.
From the outside, this has been a typical A's off-season. They traded away Sean Murphy in December, and Cole Irvin just last week, and got a bunch of guys that don't rank on Keith Law's top 100 prospects. Only Tyler Soderstrom at #60 made his list, and he was drafted by the A's.
There is a lot of doom and gloom among the fan base, too, because the names on the 40-man roster are just names right now. There is no connection to most of them. Heck, seven of the 13 position players on my projected roster either weren't on the team a year ago, or are Shea Langeliers, who played in 40 games at the big league level, but 24 of those games were at DH. He's taking over Sean Murphy's role as the everyday catcher.
At least two-fifths of the rotation will be new arrivals, along with two of the eight relievers. All in all, that's nearly half the team that has been turned over from a year ago.
While all that is true, the 2023 version of the Oakland A's isn't going to be handing out playing time as freely to guys that are struggling, like we saw with Billy McKinney, Sheldon Neuse, Kevin Smith, and Cristian Pache, among others. The bullpen is also going to be a solid collection, while the rotation offers some upside, and more importantly, depth. That is the objective the front office has achieved this off-season, and that's to build up this club's depth.
So today, let's take a look at the front-runners for each spot around the diamond and on the pitching staff, and try to provide a little hope for the fans in 2023.
Catcher
Shea Langeliers, Manny Piña - The A's acquired Langeliers in the Matt Olson deal with the Atlanta Braves before the 2022 season, and his presence made it fairly predictable that Sean Murphy would get traded this winter. Piña was acquired as part of the Murphy deal, and while he missed most of 2022, he has been roughly a league average bat as a backup behind the dish throughout his career. Piña will be a needed veteran presence for Langeliers in his first full season behind the dish at the big league level.
First Base
Jesús Aguilar, Ryan Noda - The A's just signed the veteran Aguilar last week and are hoping for a bounce back season from him in 2023. The 33-year-old will likely split time at first base with Rule 5 draftee Ryan Noda, who has a knack for getting on base, and has been sought after by the A's front office for a few seasons. Noda could push Aguilar to a DH role with some solid play both offensively and defensively, and after the trade deadline Soderstrom may be looking at playing time at first, too.
Second Base
Tony Kemp, Aledmys Díaz - Tony Kemp was the A's second baseman/left fielder a year ago, but second is where he shone defensively. Having him play against right-handers, whom he held a 93 wRC+ against in 2022, while having Aledmys Díaz play against the lefties (121 wRC+) is a nice tandem, and make for a pretty good duo on both sides of the ball.
Shortstop
Nick Allen - This is a prove it season for Allen. He has plenty of skill with the glove, and will likely be in gold glove consideration at the end of the season, but he's going to have to improve a bit with the bat to cement himself into a full-time role at short long-term. He finished 2022 with a 61 wRC+ (39% below league average), so even meeting halfway between that number and league average could be a win. If he continues to struggle, he could be deployed against left-handers, whom he held a 121 wRC+ against in his first season.
Third Base
Jace Peterson, Kevin Smith - This is where things get interesting. Kevin Smith finished 2022 batting .180 with a .216 on-base, and was sent to Triple-A in June. In September he took off, batting .365 with a .405 OBP and 11 home runs. That may have earned him another look in Oakland, where he's already played solid defense, and also held a 116 wRC+ (16% better than league average) against left-handed pitching, even while he struggled overall.
Pairing Smith with Peterson, who played 86 games at third base last season with Milwaukee and still finished with 7 Outs Above Average, sixth among all third basemen, should lead to a lockdown hot corner defensively, and at least a league average bat in the lineup with Peterson's 95 wRC+ vs. righties.
Left Field
Seth Brown - This is a tricky one, because Seth Brown may very well be the A's best hitter when the shift ban goes into effect. He also had pretty big splits against right-handers and southpaws. Versus righties, he was 29% better than league average, but against lefties, he was 40% below. Platooning him every game may not be popular, but Jace Peterson also plays a pretty good left field, and held a 105 wRC+ against lefties last season.
Center Field
Esteury Ruiz - All eyes will be on Ruiz to begin the season--and not just A's fans. People from around the baseball world are going to be watching to see the guy the A's wanted so badly that they roped the Milwaukee Brewers into the Sean Murphy trade. Ruiz has talent, batting .332 with a .447 on-base and racking up 85 steals and 16 home runs in 114 minor league games. His debut in the big leagues didn't go quite as well in a small sample, as he hit .171 with a .194 OBP in 36 plate appearances. His defense will be a work in progress, but he could be a lot of fun with the bat and on the bases.
Right Field
Ramón Laureano - The A's aren't trying to trade Ramón because he's had a couple of down seasons. Even in a down year, he put up a 96 wRC+, which would be an increase over the production the A's got from the position a year ago. If he plays well in the first half, there's a good chance he's on the move.
Bench
Cristian Pache is the only member of the club that isn't part of a platoon. He doesn't have a defined role with the team just yet, but he's out of options, and unless the A's think he can pass through waivers, I'd expect to see him with the A's in some capacity on Opening Day. They could try to trade him, but the return wouldn't be great.
Just Missed: Jordan Díaz, who likely needs to solidify himself at a position before getting called back up. His bat can play, but the A's don't want him at DH.
Dermis Garcia is another guy that has some work to do in the minors. His strikeout rate of 44% was way too high, but he's working on a new loading mechanism that could lead to better results, and a return to Oakland at some point.
Conner Capel is only on the outside looking in because Pache is out of options. Capel was solid in his week in Oakland after being claimed off of waivers in September.
Jonah Bride can play a number of positions, but he didn't drive the ball very much last season. He has a track record of producing in the minors and getting on base, but he's going to need to find some gaps in order to stick. He had five extra-base hits in 187 plate appearances last season.
Staring Rotation
In no particular order: Paul Blackburn and James Kaprielian seem like they'll be part of this group since they've been with the team the longest and have each had their moments. Blackburn started off real strong in the first two months, posting a 2.15 ERA through May, and Kap was equally as dominant in his final four starts to finish off the year.
Beyond them, Shintaro Fujinami is one of the most exciting players to keep an eye on, and will likely at least start the season in the rotation. Drew Rucinski doesn't come with the same fanfare, but he was arguably the best pitcher in the KBO the past four seasons, and made at least 30 starts in each of those seasons.
To round out the rotation, I'm going with Ken Waldichuk. The left-hander, acquired from the Yankees in the Frankie Montas deal, has two wins in his big-league career, and they have come against Jacob deGrom and Shohei Ohtani. He's still learning, but he doesn't need more time in Triple-A.
Just Missed: Kyle Muller (Murphy trade), JP Sears, Adrián Martínez, and Adam Oller. Sears, Martínez, and Oller each had their moments, especially Sears, who out-dueled Mariners ace Luis Castillo three separate times in the second half. Muller could just need big-league innings to figure things out.
Bullpen
Newcomer Trevor May will add some experience to the mix, and his personality will be a welcome addition to the club. A.J. Puk is vying for a rotation spot this spring, but with so many other rotation options, and so few full-time bullpen options, Puk likely ends up back in the 'pen, perhaps working in longer bursts to get stretched out for a rotation bid in 2024.
Zach Jackson and Dany Jiménez make this team pretty easily since they each worked the late innings last year, and behind them you have a second lefty in the bullpen with Sam Moll, who finished the season with a team-low 2.91 ERA. Domingo Acevedo is back as the workhorse, and Chad Smith, who the A's acquired from the Rockies, has a lot of intrigue with his slider.
The final piece of the bullpen, and the 26-man roster is Kirby Snead. With so many rotation options, one of the guys in the "just missed" section could take over this spot as more of a long relief option, but Snead has so much movement on his pitches that with the addition of bullpen coach Mike McCarthy and a full off-season as a member of the A's, I think he'll be improved in 2023.