A's Top 30 Prosepcts 2023: Who Rose and Who Fell?
The top three spots on the A's top 30 list remain the same, with Tyler Soderstrom, Ken Waldichuk, and Zack Gelof going 1-2-3.
Then things get a little interesting. Let's start off with the biggest risers on the list between 2022 and 2023.
Biggest Risers
Mason Miller, Oakland's new #4 prospect over at MLB PIpeline (#3 over at FanGraphs) really impressed scouts with his 100 mph fastball last season, but it has to be his command that lands him this high on the list. Miller was Oakland's #23 prospect last season, a jump of 19 spots.
The 24-year-old righty was a 3rd round selection by the A's in the 2021 Draft but has completed just 20 innings in pro ball due to injury. He was healthy when the Arizona Fall League started up, and tossed 16.2 innings in Fall Ball, striking out 20, putting up a 0.780 WHIP, and racking up a 3.24 ERA. That's a pretty impressive line against some good hitters, especially for someone that had only thrown 20 minor-league innings. Miller is a starting pitcher and this ranking reflects his tremendous upside. If he can stay healthy, the A's may have a gem on their hands.
This next one is technically cheating, but Luis Morales wasn't even on the A's prospect list from 2022, and now he comes in at #12. The reason he wasn't ranked is because he signed with the club in January on the first day of the international signing period. He was considered the best pitching prospect of the international class.
Morales, a 20-year-old right-hander, has been clocked at 99 with his fastball, which sits 94-97. Pipeline also mentions that he has a slider, changeup and curveball as secondary offerings that he is in the process of refining. They also mention that an improvement in his command could have him move through the minors fairly quickly, and his ceiling is a frontline starter.
Royber Salinas was part of the Sean Murphy trade, and is the only player that came back to the A's that isn't immediately ready for a big-league audition. Salinas ranked #27 in the A's system after the trade, but comes in at #20 entering the 2023 season, up seven spots.
Salinas, a 21-year-old righty, started 25 games in Atlanta's system split between their A Ball and High-A affiliates, Augusta and Rome. Combined between the two levels he posted a 3.55 ERA in 109 innings while striking out 170. He walked 5.4 per nine in High-A, but he only allowed six hits per nine, so if his command gets a little better as he progresses, he could remain a starter. He could also end up in the bullpen with a 99 mph fastball and a wipeout slider.
The last player in the A's system to go up more than five spots isn't going to surprise anybody that has watched basically any A's spring baseball. It's Lawrence Butler.
Ranked #17 last year, Butler comes in at #11 in 2023, up six spots, and he's another guy that opened some eyes in the Arizona Fall League. After he dislocated his elbow on July 4 last season, people thought his season was over, but he came back at the end of August and just rolled right into the AFL, batting .241 with a .389 OBP, two homers, six steals, and he walked as many times as he struck out (15). So far this spring he is 8-for-13 (.625) and has fans clamoring for him to make the team out of Spring Training.
The best case scenario for Butler right now would be to dominate Double-A and get a quick promotion, then dominate Triple-A during the second half of the season. Then, he could be deemed ready to be in the big leagues by September if the A's fast track him. For now though, he hasn't played above High-A, and the A's tend to have their prospects at least check in at every stop along the way to the big leagues.
Jordan Díaz (#7) is up two spots, Freddy Tarnok (#9) is also up two, Brett Harris (#16) is up four, and Joey Estes (#24) is up two.
Furthest Drops
The A's had four players drop seven spots in their year-over-year rankings. The first such player is 2022 draftee Henry Bolte (#14), who was aggressively ranked #7 after the Draft. Bolte is a 19-year-old outfielder with tremendous power and speed potential, but he didn't hit immediately after he was drafted (in 11 games), hence the drop. Bolte went 7-for-33 (.212) with 19 strikeouts in his first taste of Rookie Ball, and is likely headed to Stockton for his first full season in 2023. He's definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Luis Medina (#21), a 23-year-old flamethrower acquired as part of the Frankie Montas/Lou Trivino deal that also brought back Ken Waldichuk, JP Sears, and Cooper Bowman, drops from 14 to 21. Medina has the stuff to be successful, but it's his command that has been lacking, especially once he came over in that trade. He walked 9.6 per nine in 20.2 innings with Double-A Midland, up from the five walks per nine he posted in the Yankees system at the same level.
Medina is still considered a starter, but he is down to his final minor league option, so next year at this time the A's could be facing a tough decision if he doesn't turn things around. That's why as the season progresses, he could be tried out in a relief role to see how effective he is in shorter stints. He allowed one run in three innings of spring action, walking three and striking out three.
Ryan Cusick (#23), another trade acquisition, this time from the Matt Olson deal, dealt with injuries last year, totaling just 43 innings, 41 of which came with Midland. The 6-foot-6, 23-year-old right-hander finished with a 7.02 ERA, allowed 11.6 hits per nine, 6.6 walks per nine, and held a 2.024 WHIP. Pipeline notes that the A's had him change his approach, focusing on quadrants of the strike zone instead of throwing his 98 mph fastball up in the zone, and that could have led to a bit of a regression last season.
Euribiel Angeles (#28), spent most of his time in Lansing playing up the middle, with 34 games at second and 49 at shortstop. In 97 games he hit .278 with a .316 OBP, two homers, and eight steals in 14 tries. His strikeout rate was good for a 20-year-old in High-A, at 14.9%, but his walk rate sat at just 4.4%. If he repeats the level in 2023, look for that walk rate to go up.
Off the List
Two players were booted from the A's top 30, in Pedro Pineda and Cooper Bowman. Pineda signed with the A's out of the Dominican Republic back during the 2020-21 international signing period, and was rated the number 13 overall prospect of that signing class. Last season Pineda, 19, was ranked #25 in the A's system, but the outfielder hit just .188 with a .306 OBP in his first action in full-season ball with Stockton (42 games), and he struck out in 45% of his plate appearances. He also walked 10% of the time.
Bowman was another piece of the return from the Montas/Trivino trade, and overall the 23-year-old hit .215 with a .329 on-base, 11 home runs, and 47 stolen bases. It's an interesting profile. In his time with Lansing, his strikeout rate went up three percent to 29.5%, and his walk rate was cut in half, down to seven percent.
New Additions
With two players off the list, two players had to be added. We already talked about international signee Luis Morales, but 26-year-old lefty Hogan Harris also joins the party at #25. Harris was healthy for the first time since 2019 last year, and made stops in Lansing, Midland, and Las Vegas, totaling 73.2 innings across 23 games (22 starts) with a 3.42 ERA, 1.276 WHIP, 12.8 K/9, and 5.3 BB/9. He'll be in the Aviator's starting rotation come Opening Day, and was added to Oakland's 40-man roster this winter.