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Holiday Wishlist: 3 Free Agent Starters to Finalize the Blue Jays Rotation
The heavy lifting is done, and the Toronto Blue Jays already have one of the best rotations in the American League.
With Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Alek Manoah, and Hyun Jin Ryu set to form the bulk of Toronto's rotation, Nate Pearson and Ross Stripling sit as the in-house candidates for the fifth starter role. If Toronto aims to push Stripling and Pearson down the depth chart or into relief roles, the Jays could trade for another rebound SP like Steven Matz last year or turn to the open market.
We've already discussed the Yusei Kikuchi fit in Toronto at length, so here are three other free agent pitching pieces who could slide into the bottom of Toronto's rotation:
Michael Pineda
The Blue Jays made a splash at the 2021 deadline, acquiring an established Minnesota Twins starter for a pair of top prospects. There was another Minny starter floated around Toronto and other pitching-needy teams last July, and now Pineda could be back on the Blue Jays' radar.
The 32-year-old righty has been effective and consistent when on the field. Since 2015, Pineda has posted an ERA between 3.3 and 4.9 every season and a FIP between 3.7 and 4.7. He’s never posted a BB/9 above 3 and never posted a K/9 below 7.
Pineda’s fastball/slider/changeup deliveries continue to play, but injury has been the main cause for concern during his career (alongside a few suspensions). The righty has had Tommy John, meniscus tears, and made just 21 starts in 2021 due to arm and side injuries. With reliability above him in the rotation and options behind, Toronto could stomach the potential for missed time and enjoy Pineda’s effectiveness when active—if the price is right.
Kwang-hyun Kim
After joining the St. Louis Cardinals on a two-year deal ahead of 2020 from Korea, Kim has quietly been one of the more effective pitchers in baseball. The 33-year-old lefty posted a 2.97 ERA across 28 starts (35 appearances) and 145.2 innings pitched in his two years in MLB.
Among starters with at least 100 IP last season, Kim had a better ERA than Berríos, Lucas Giolito, and Clayton Kershaw. His 4.34 FIP was also lower than other free agent starters like Kikuchi or Tyler Anderson.
Relying primarily on a fastball/slider combo, Kim sits just below 90 MPH on the heater and mixes in a changeup and curveball to avoid hard contact and miss barrels. He's not a workhorse starter, pitching over 180 IP in the KBO and MLB just once in his career, but the Jays don't really need significant innings from an SP5. With the rate stats of a mid-rotation arm, Kim could elevate Toronto's rotation ceiling while preventing full-season reliance on Ross Stripling or Nate Pearson.
Tyler Anderson
I toyed with a few different names for this final fit (see some contenders below), but Anderson probably has the highest upside of the bunch. With a 90 MPH fastball and a 4.62 career ERA, you must look beyond the traditional evaluations to see that potential.
The 31-year-old lefty has the foundations of a great starter. He doesn't let up many hard-hit balls, he doesn't walk guys, he gets elite chases, and he spins his fastball better than most. Anderson can allow homers and doesn't have blow-away velocity, but everything else is there.
In 2021, Anderson's sweeping cutter had a 40.7% chase rate, the highest of any pitch in any season in his career. Batters whiffed on the cut 22.6% of the time and posted an xSLG of just .366 against the delivery. Anderson tunnels the fastball with his secondary breaking pitch, but he also adds in a changeup (thrown 25% of the time in 2021) which has been his most valuable pitch at times.
Anderson experienced a drop in spin rates in the middle of 2021, mainly impacting his 4-seamer, but his hard contact rate actually fell when his spin rates did, and Soft% ticked up. At worst, Anderson is a league-average starter who just proved he can log over 150 innings in a season. Building around his strengths, he could be something more.
Honorable Mentions: Danny Duffy, Drew Smyly, Matt Boyd, Zach Davies
Also, check out our top RP free agent fits and top hitter free agent fits for the Blue Jays.
