What Would Have to Happen for Atlanta Braves to Miss Postseason
This Atlanta Braves team is stacked and projected to do big things in 2024. A lot would have to go wrong for them to miss the postseason.
As noted in Wednesday's article, the Braves received some of the best World Series odds that we've ever seen from FanGraphs.
Everyone, even computer projections, knows just how talented this team is from top to bottom. But you don't have to go too far back to see some cautionary tales.
Last year, PECOTA projected the Mets to win the NL East with 96 wins after the big offseason they had.
FanGraphs projections were more in Atlanta's favor, with the Braves as the division favorite with 93 wins and the Mets behind them at 90 wins and a 77.1 percent chance of making the playoffs.
As we all know, the Mets didn't reach the playoffs in 2024 and won only 75 games -- finishing 29 games back of the Braves in the NL East and nine games back of the final Wild Card spot.
Projections are fun this time of year and give us an indicator of how the season could play out if things go as expected. But this is baseball where almost nothing happens as we expect.
The Rangers were given just a 37.7 percent chance to make the playoffs last year by FanGraphs, and just a 2 percent chance to win the World Series.
There are many reasons to believe this Braves team will reach the postseason again, but let's take a look at what would have to happen for them to not make it in.
Injuries
This is the obvious one -- injuries to key players can wreck any team's season and it's a harsh reality in sports. But I do think the Braves are built to withstand multiple injuries to key players more than anyone.
For instance, worst-case scenario the Braves lose Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson to injury for a significant period.
It would still be a lineup that includes: Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, and Marcell Ozuna.
And while I don't think Orlando Arcia will repeat his All-Star level performance from the first half of 2023, he'd still be a solid option at the bottom of the order.
Sure, the Braves don't have great replacements ready if they lose those two. It might be some combination of J.P. Martinez, Forrest Wall, and Jordan Luplow replacing Acuña, and there might be some scrambling to find a first baseman.
(Ed. note: Marcell Ozuna DID take a lot of groundballs at first base last season, and started there in at least one of the pre-NLDS squad games.)
But most teams would still take that 1-5 in the lineup.
Major Regression
You can make the case that a lot of Braves players overperformed last year and are due to take a step back in 2024.
History tells us Matt Olson isn't likely to hit over 280 again with 50-plus home runs.
Can Marcell Ozuna - who was almost unplayable in 2021 and 2022 -- have a second-straight career year at the age of 33? Seems doubtful.
While I don't put any limits on what Acuña can accomplish, should we really expect another 40-70 season? Even Ozzie Albies is coming off a career mark for home runs with 33 and had his highest average and on-base mark since 2019.
There are real reasons to worry that several Braves position players will take a step back in 2024.
Here is the thing with that -- the Braves offense was so much better than everyone else in 2023 that even if they regressed a good bit, they'd still be one of the best offenses in baseball.
There was a 50-point gap in OPS between the Braves and the next-best team, a difference of 58 home runs, and a 13-point advantage in batting average!
The Pitching Falls Apart
For the Braves fans who are concerned about the upcoming season, most of those concerns are centered around the pitching staff. The reality is that all pitchers are volatile and ticking time bombs.
But the Braves have taken on a good bit of risk in their rotation with Max Fried, Chris Sale, and Charlie Morton.
If all stay healthy -- along with Spencer Strider -- you can make the case it's one of the best starting rotations in MLB.
While Fried has been durable for most of his career, he's coming of an injury-filled season and now enters his 30s. Sale has thrown a total of 151 innings since 2019, and Morton seems to be regressing as he enters his age-40 season.
While the depth on the position player side of things doesn't worry me, the depth at starting pitching does.
Sure, there is big upside potential with AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, but they are unproven.
And there is solid back of the rotation depth with Bryce Elder, Darius Vines, Allan Winans, and Dylan Dodd, yes. But those aren't guys you want to count on for a majority of the season or for the postseason.
Even if all of those things were to happen -- they lose a couple of key position players to injuries, several position players regress from last year's numbers, and the starting pitching falls apart -- it's still hard to envision this team not at least making the postseason.
Especially with how low the bar is now to enter the postseason -- you just need to get to 85 or 86 wins.
This is baseball where the unexpected often happens over a 162-game schedule. But it would take multiple disasters for this Braves team to not win 85-plus games in 2024 and reach the postseason for a seventh-straight year.
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