ESPN Names Braves as Their Top Breakout Team for 2026

Perhaps it's cheating to declare them a breakout team, but the Atlanta Braves are expected to bounce back regardless

The Braves are expected to bounce back | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Braves’ expectations are back on the upswing, at least in the eyes of one ESPN list. They top their list of five breakout teams for the 2026 season. They top a list that includes the Orioles, Pirates, White Sox and Cubs in that order. 

Now, the definition of breakout here is not what you would expect, so let’s go over the definition given for this list. A breakout team is one that beats its baseline win total by 10 games. Baseline wins are determined by using “wins per 162 games for the previous two seasons, while giving double weight to the most recent season.” 

This is the only way the Atlanta Braves, who have won 100 games twice recently, with the same core players, could be declared a breakout team. 

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To help make that definition a little clearer, it basically looks at the average win total of the previous two seasons, with more emphasis on the 2025 season. They declared the Braves to have a baseline win total of 80 with a 59% probability of reaching 90 wins. 

Their main key to achieving this “breakout” is to get healthy. That would make sense since healthy has been the thorn in this team’s side over the past two seasons. It’s not off to a great start, and ESPN acknowledged that, since Ha-Seong Kim is already out for the first couple of months of the regular season. 

Using the 2022 Diamonbacks as a model for determining this breakout, the Braves have experienced back-to-back seasons where they had at least 10 fewer losses than the season prior. Injuries to the starting rotation were a major problem behind those steps back. 

That 2022 Diamondbacks team was in a much worse position. They went from 52 wins to 74 wins that year. The following year, they had another “breakout” to reach 84 wins, which was good enough to go on a run to the World Series. 

The big takeaway from all of this is that the Braves are expected to do better this year. Whether or not it puts them in the playoffs isn’t even something ESPN goes into, but it's worth adding that to the discussion. 

Perhaps getting key players, along with their additions this offseason, could be enough to get them from about 80 wins to around 90 wins. Last season, 90 wins would have netted them the third wild-card spot, since the Padres had the head-to-head tiebreaker. 

Even a 10-win improvement from last year’s 76 wins would have been enough. The Reds made it in with 83 wins. They would have had a cushion. However, you never know how many wins will be enough. The year before, 89 was just enough. Sometimes, 90 isn’t enough. 

Ronald Acuña Jr. being back for a full season will do wonders. If the starting rotation is moderately healthier, that helps too. The big ones are seeing if Austin Riley is healthy and ready to roll. Spencer Strider improving would help, and so would Ozzie Albies returning to form. 

We’ll have to wait and see, as much as that’s basic and annoying to point out. For what it’s worth, they’re expected to do more, and that’s a good place to start.