Two Cubs Projected For Big Years By FanGraphs
As new analytics go, wins above replacement, or WAR, is one of the most accepted in terms of determining a player’s value to a team and the game.
WAR is a number that is usually looked back on at the end of the season. But what’s the hot stove league without a little projecting for 2024?
Recently MLB.com scanned projections based on Streamer projections and picked out each team’s highest-projected player based on WAR.
The Chicago Cubs ended up with a tie. Both second baseman Nico Hoerner and pitcher Justin Steele had a projected WAR of 3.3.
Turns out, two Cubs ended in a tie last season — Steele and shortstop Dansby Swanson. So perhaps Steele ending up tied here isn’t a surprise.
Steele’s projections include a 3.69 ERA with 174 strikeouts in 181 innings. That would indicate a full, healthy season for Steele and the Cubs got a good look at what he can produce last season.
Steele finished fifth in Cy Young voting last season after he posted the best season of his career. He led the Cubs in wins, going 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA. He threw a career-high 173.1 innings, striking out a career-high 176 and walking 36. He also earned his first All-Star Game bid.
He enters this season as the Cubs’ projected opening-day starter.
As for Hoerner, he moved from shortstop to second base last season to make room for Swanson. The fifth-year Cub won his first Gold Glove and put together another fine season at the plate, as he slashed .283/.346/.383/.729 with nine home runs and 68 RBI. He also had a career-high 27 doubles.
Hoerner is projected for another quality season — .281/.342/.403/.326 with 12 home runs, 85 runs and 67 RBI. He was the only Cubs hitter among the Top 50 hitters in projected WAR for 2024.
