Is It Time for the Chicago Cubs to Panic About Thompson's Velocity Drop?
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Something is up with Keegan Thompson.
The Chicago Cubs reliever's velocity has been noticeably down in MLB Spring Training.
BleacherNation's Bryan Smith was tracking the velocity of his pitches in his March 19th outing:
To the unsuspecting eye, Thompson is fine. His spring stats are excellent on paper.
In four innings of work, the 28-year-old has allowed just one hit, no earned runs, two walks, and fanned five batters.
However, the right-hander, who threw his fastball roughly 47-percent of the time in 2022, averaged around 94 mph last season.
In spring training, the results mean little. And, again, Thompson's numbers have looked great. But there could be much larger implications heading into the regular season if he's dealing with an underlying issue.
And as NorthSideBound's Greg Zumach reports here, the results are eye-opening when Thompson's fastball touches 94 mph and above. Velocity is everything to Thompson.
As we've seen with Justin Steele, players can come into the spring with dead arm. In fact, it is relatively common and can be easily treated.
But it is something that should be monitored for the remainder of the spring, especially if it prevents Thompson from ramping up his workload in the final week of the exhibition schedule.
In the scenario that Thompson's velocity drop becomes something more significant, the Cubs might be inclined to have him begin the year in Triple-A Iowa.
He still has two minor league options remaining, which would then offer the opportunity for someone like Javier Assad an almost-guaranteed spot in the bullpen and/or Adrian Sampson a spot in a relief role, depending on how the rest of the roster shakes out.
Last year, Thompson posted a 3.76 ERA in 29 appearances, including 17 starts. Going into this season, Cubs manager David Ross indicated that he would solely be in a relief role for the club.
The results speak for themselves, as Thompson has a 1.95 ERA in a relief role in 38 career games compared to a 4.94 ERA in 23 career starts from the rotation.
Only time will tell if Thompson's velocity drop is indicative of an injury or just fatigue. But the numbers don't lie, if Thompson doesn't see an uptick in his velocity, an ever-so-important factor for the righty, then it may be time to explore other options for his spot in the bullpen.
At least until he gets it figured out.
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