Diamondbacks 2022 Season Player Reviews: Zach Davies
2022 Status: Free Agent Signing, One year, $1,500,000, plus performance bonuses based on games started
2022 Diamondbacks Season Reviews
Season Review
Zach Davies was drafted by the Baltimore Orioles back in 2011. Traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for former Diamondback Gerardo Parra, Davies made his major league debut in 2015. For the next five years, four with Milwaukee and then 2020 with the Padres, Davies was a well above average, and very underrated pitcher.
Over 123 starts he was 50-36, with a 3.79 ERA, or 114 ERA+ (about 14% better than average). While never a hard thrower, possessing a fastball that has never averaged over 90 MPH, Davies kept hitters off balance with good command, walking very few batters and inducing weak contact. Through 2018 he mixed cutters, curveballs and changeups evenly. He suffered a shoulder injury in 2018, missing two months of the season however. Since 2019 he began using the changeup about 33% of the time, cutting back on his other secondaries and the fastball.
After his one year in 2020 with the Padres, he was traded to the Chicago Cubs. In his final year of arbitration before free agency, things could not have gone worse. Davies went 6-12 with a 5.78 ERA. Coming into 2021 he had only walked 2.6/9, but that ballooned to a career worst 4.6/9. His home run and hit rates went up as well. That resulted in him taking a below market contract for just $1.5M with the Diamondbacks, with a mutual option for 2022.
His season started out reasonably enough. Through his first seven starts he pitched 35.1 innings and had a 3.57 ERA. He gained a measure of satisfaction, picking up his second victory of the year on May 13th against his former team the Cubs. That was followed by a rough three start patch, in which he got knocked around by the Dodgers twice and the Royals once, giving up 13 runs in 13 innings, increasing his ERA to 4.84
He had his best game of the year in Pittsburgh against the Pirates on June fourth, throwing 7.2 shutout innings while giving up just three hits. Unfortunately Mark Melancon was not able to protect a one run lead giving up a two run walk off homer in the 9th inning. By June 25th Davies had made 15 starts, 11 of which he went five innings or more, and had his ERA back down to 3.94. But due to either poor run support or poor bullpen support, he was having a hard time picking up any wins, as his record stood at 2-4 when he took a no decision on June 25th.
He then went on the IL for the second time in his career, again with a shoulder injury. That would keep him out until August 1st. He lasted just just two innings, as he was on a tight pitch count, while giving up four runs in a no decision. But over his next five starts he managed to go five or more innings in each, while give up just seven runs, but once again, getting no decisions in each of those games. That trend would continue. In fact Davies made 11 straight starts without a decision between August first and September 20th. When he finally did get a decision on September 27th, it was a loss. In his final start of the year he went five innings, giving up just two hits and one run, but yet again got the no decision.
Davies final record was 2-5, with a 4.09 ERA. He averaged exactly five innings per start. But the seven decisions were the fewest from any starter with minimum 25 starts in the entire history of MLB. (Ryne Stanek had fewer in 2018 & 19 but he was an opener, pitching just one inning in his "starts" and was not a true starter). The next fewest number of decisions with 25 starts or more is 10, most recently by Chris Archer also in 2022.
While averaging just five innings per start is somewhat low, MLB average is just 5.2. There was the perfect storm that created this anomaly however. In addition to his frequent short outings, the team averaged just 2.9 runs scored per 27 outs while he was in the game, which was the lowest among the primary starting pitchers on the team. Add to that some bad luck with bullpen support and he ended up with just seven decisions.
2023 Outlook
There is a mutual option between Davies and the team for 2023 and it's been reported that the player is expected to decline his half. It's not known exactly what the option salary is, but presumably it's similarly low as 2022. It's likely that Davies could get at least $4 million or more on a one or two year deal on the open market. Davies said he would like to return to the team and GM Mike Hazen said on October 6th that finding more starting pitching is among his list of priorities this off season. Whether that means bringing Davies back at a higher salary or moving on to another option remains to be seen.
