Diamondbacks Collapse: From Loss to Acceptance
The Diamondbacks are in the midst of an historic collapse. As mentioned last night, by going 7-25 in their last 32 games they've gone from 16 games over .500 (50-34) to two games under .500 (57-59). Since 1900, no team has fallen from 16 or more games over .500 to two games under .500 in so few games. (3 teams did it prior to 1900)
It's a crushing and devastating turn of events for the entire organization and it's fans. It had appeared that the young team had arrived a year sooner than expected and had a chance break precedent. Teams simply don't make the post season just two years after losing two thirds of their games. Back on May 26th I wrote about the rarity of such a thing happening and the two teams that had a chance to break precedent, the Diamondbacks and the Orioles. It looks like the Orioles will make it to the postseason. The Diamondbacks will almost certainly not.
Playoff Odds
The updated playoff odds and projected win total are a composite from Baseball Reference, Fangraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. As you can see the win total projection of 79.4 now comes out to an under .500 record, and their chances of making the post season are down to 10%, with zero chance of taking the division. It should be noted that when the season began Fangraphs had projected 78.4 wins and a 15% chance to make the playoffs. Most other projections had them in the same neighborhood, within a game or two. So they are back where they started the season.
Another way to view this is they have 46 games remaining. It will likely take anywhere from a minimum of 84 to 86 wins to capture the final NL Wild Card slot. The team will need to at the very least go 27-19 the rest of the way to have a shot, and perhaps 29-17 to really secure a place, especially once tie breakers are taken into account. With a very difficult schedule remaining, does this team feel like it's remotely capable of getting on such a run? Not to this observer, although until they are mathematically eliminated the players and coaches will never admit their chances are remote. That's the nature of competition and competitive people. Down deep they know......but they have to deny it to themselves and the outside world.
On the flip side, last year they won 74 games. Certainly the entire organization would be devastated if they didn't at least improve over last year. But even that is no longer a given, based on the level of play we have seen for the last six weeks.
As can be seen above, going 16-30 the rest of the way, while dreadful, is not unimaginable based on their recent 7-25 stretch. They SHOULD do better than 16-30, but the sad fact is ending up no better than last year's record is in play at this point, perhaps equally or even more so than getting to 84-86 wins.
Jack Sommers
The Five Stages of Grief
The team had been in denial about what has been happening, but they seem past that phase. Fans have long since been past the denial phase, and have been in the anger phase for a few weeks, based on interactions on social media. The team has since caught up however. Over the last week or so an angrier tone has definitely taken hold in interview sessions with the manager, coaches, players and executives.
They in the bargaining phase now, but that will not last long. They still want to think if they can just make this tweak to the lineup, or pitching mechanics, or hit a few line drives and get untracked and turn it around. But again, down deep they know. It's not likely to happen.
Depression over the loss of competitiveness and a playoff chance are coming soon. Only once they get past that phase, and have been thoroughly eliminated from serious contention will they get to the acceptance phase and start playing looser, better baseball.
It's an unfortunate situation, and one that is not easy for anyone involved. Jobs, careers, and livelihoods are at stake for many. Enjoyment for fans has been taken away. It stinks, but just like everyone else I keep scrolling up and seeing the 10.3% and think, "there's still a chance"
