Can D-backs and Orioles Defy Precedent to Make Playoffs?
UPDATE: They did it ! The Diamondbacks just clinched a wild card berth and the Orioles won the AL East. To see how rare it is for teams to have this quick a turnaround, read the rest of this article first published in May.
Less than two seasons after finishing 52-110, .321 W%, both the Arizona Diamondbacks (29-21) and the Baltimore Orioles (33-17) have a chance to achieve turnarounds that should be considered rare and noteworthy. The Diamondbacks are +3.5 games up in the NL Wild Card and -1.5 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. The Orioles are +4.5 games up in the AL Wild card and three games back of the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.
General Manager Mike Hazen and Manager Torey Lovullo, and the entire baseball operations and coaching staffs have teamed up to turn the organization around after that dismal 2021 season. It's rare territory for sure. But how rare?
YEAR 1: Disaster Seasons
Since the start of divisional play in 1969 there have been only 15 teams that have failed to post a Win% of at least .333. It's very rare to be that bad in the modern era, as these seasons represent just 1% of the 1,498 team seasons played between 1969-2022. Below is the list of those 15 teams. Some franchises appear several times. (Detroit three times, Baltimore and Arizona twice). The 2023 A's and possibly Royals may be joining this list by the end of the season.
Jack Sommers
YEAR 2: The Road to Recovery
In year two after these disaster seasons, every team improved, some more than others. Only two teams in the divisional era finished over .500 in year 2, (the year after the disaster low point season). The 1980 Oakland A's playing "Billy Ball" for manager Billy Martin, and Buck Showalter's 2022 Orioles. Both teams improved a stunning 29 games, but did not make the playoffs.
On average these teams improved by .120 win percentage points, or by the equivalent of 19 games for a full 162 season. The 2022 Diamondbacks did a little better than the average, improving by 22 games, or .136 percentage points. The takeaway from this is that a 10-20 game improvement is the norm.
Jack Sommers
YEAR 3: Paths Diverge
So what happened to these 15 teams in Year 3 ? (two seasons after the disaster year)
Jack Sommers
Only two teams in the divisional era have made the playoffs two years after losing 2/3 or more their games. The 1981 Oakland A's did it in a strike shortened season, winning a division series but losing in the ALCS. They failed to finish over .500 in any season between 1982-1987 however.
The 2015 Houston Astros won a wild card game against the Yankees before bowing out in the divisional series. They won 84 games in 2016, but missed the playoffs. Since 2017 they've made the playoffs six years in a row, winning two world series.
No other team finished over .500 in a full season two years after posting a .333 W% or lower, and seven of the teams actually posted lower winning percentage than they did in year 2. The takeaway then from the table above is that further improvement is not a given, and getting over .500, let alone making the playoffs is still quite rare. In fact less than 1/10th of 1% of seasons in 53 years have resulted in a team losing 67% of their games and then coming back two years later to make the playoffs.
2023 Playoff Odds
So with the above context provided, lets take a look at the playoff odds for these two franchises. We'll start with the Diamondbacks. We took a look at these odds back on May 7th, at which point they had played 33 games and were 19-14. Using an average from four different statistics websites we derived a 41.2% playoff chance, with 36.8% odds for the wild card, a 4.4% chance for the division title and a 1.0% chance at winning the world series. The team has gone 10-7 since then to get to eight games over .500, and the overall playoff odds have improved to 48.5% as of the morning of May 26th. That is more or less "coin flip" territory in a tightly bunched NL Wild Card standings race, but far better than their pre season odds which were less than a third of that to start the season. The fact that they even have that good of a chance to achieve something that has happened in less than 1/10th of 1% of the seasons played over the last 53 years is remarkable.
The Orioles meanwhile have virtually the same playoff odds as the Diamondbacks, despite having won four more games. That is likely a reflection of both the competition they face in the AL East and projections that have not yet caught up to their improvement.
Jack Sommers
Honorable Mention: Because of the .333 W% cutoff, the 1988-89 Orioles did not make the lists above. In 1988 the Orioles went 54-107, .335 W%, playing just 161 games. The following year they went down to the final weekend of the year with a chance to win the division, and ended up going 87-75. With manager Frank Robinson at the helm, it was one of the most remarkable turnarounds in major league history. They fell back below .500 for the next two seasons though and didn't make the playoffs until 1996
