Free Agent Possibilites for the Diamondbacks Bullpen
Fixing the Diamondbacks bullpen will require casting a wide net and looking at every avenue for solutions. In this five-part series, the first three covered internal candidates while the fourth covered potential trade targets. The fifth and final installment will cover potential free agent targets.
- Current relievers on MLB roster who can compete for a 2023 role
- Current relievers in minor league system who may contribute
- Starting pitcher conversion to reliever candidates in the system
- External trade targets
- Free agents
Inside the Diamondbacks is projecting the Diamondbacks to have maximum $20 Million additional payroll dollars, bringing payroll up to $115 Million for 2023. It could be less. So the budget will be tight to improve the bullpen.
1. RHP Edwin Diaz
Diaz isn't a realistic target for the D-backs due to the price tag that could be north of $18 Million per season. With some of top payroll teams like the Mets, Dodgers, and Yankees likely to get into a bidding war for arguably the top closer in the game. Unless the team is willing to significantly expand their payroll, there's a low chance that he signs with Arizona this winter.
2. RHP Rafael Montero
Montero may be the ideal pitcher to try to secure in free agency if the goal is to upgrade the closer position this winter. The soon to be 32-year-old reliever is coming off a great year with the Houston Astros, pitching to a 2.47 ERA, a 71/23 strikeout to walk ratio, and 13 saves in 65.2 innings.
The main pitch for the D-backs to lure Montero to the desert will be the promise of being the closer or go-to-guy in high leverage situations. In high leverage situations, he held opposing hitters to a .113/.254/.189 triple slash with a 26.6% strikeout rate vs. a 15.6% walk rate. The walks are a bit troublesome, but the ability to prevent loud contact and a strikeout rate that doesn't take a big dip compared to his season average of 27.4% offsets that.
Montero averaged 96 MPH with two different fastballs, which combine for nearly 70% of the pitches he uses. His secondary offerings include a swing-and-miss changeup and the occasional slider. At 6'0" his fastball comes at a flatter angle than most pitchers, which serves to his benefit as hitters have not been able to make a lot of quality contact against any of his four main pitches.
If the budget allows for the D-backs to spend $10 Million a year on a reliever to upgrade the closer role, Montero is the best free agent fit for upgrading the bullpen.
3. RHP Robert Suarez
Suarez signed a two-year deal with an opt out with the Padres last winter, with the opt out having a high chance to be exercised. He can reach triple digits with two different fastballs along with a solid cutter, curveball, and changeup. In the Padres bullpen, he pitched as a setup man in front of both Taylor Rogers and Josh Hader. The D-backs can give Suarez a chance to be the closer, which may be their main selling point to lure him away from San Diego.
In high leverage situations, Suarez held opponents to a .188 average but a 19/12 strikeout to walk ratio is somewhat concerning. That was on display in his MLB debut on April 7th against Arizona, as he walked two and hit a batter with a 2-0 lead in the ninth inning. The inability to get strikeouts in those situations might make Suarez a better candidate as a setup man than closer trying to either save a one-run lead or maintain a tie.
The cost to sign him may be in the $9-10 Million per year range on a multiyear deal.
4. RHP Nick Martinez
After a failed run in the Padres rotation, Martinez was moved to the bullpen and has been arguably their most valuable reliever. Since the move, he is 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA, 44/14 strikeout to walk ratio, and a .610 opponent OPS in 51.2 innings. The season was good enough that he may opt out of a four-year deal he signed with the Padres last winter and test himself on the free agent market again.
Martinez isn't an overpowering pitcher, but knows how to change speeds and locations to induce weak contact. He's not a closer candidate, but can give a team anywhere from three to nine outs on a given night in the backend of the bullpen. Having someone who can provide length and the ability to work back-to-back nights occasionally would be a big boost for the D-backs bullpen.
The price tag to land Martinez will probably be around $8-9 Million a year to sign.
5. LHP Matt Strahm
Strahm would s another left-handed arm that could allow Joe Mantiply and Kyle Nelson to settle into roles they're more comfortable with. Both pitchers are good when utilized as matchup weapons in the middle innings, the latter also showing some success in a setup role.
Strahm has some pretty decent numbers in high leverage situations, holding opponents to a .221/.280/.338 triple slash with 23 strikeouts and 5 walks in 75 PA. He averages 94 MPH on both his 4-Seam and 2-Seam Fastballs and mixes in both a slider and curveball. Batters are getting underneath his 4-seamer, as evidenced by a high pop-up rate of 11.9%.
There aren't any platoon splits for Strahm, who has a .676 OPS against left-handed hitters and .664 against right-handed. He fits as either a high leverage left-on-left matchup arm or could be a seventh or eighth inning reliever on other days. His likely price point could be around $6-7MM.
6. RHP Carlos Estévez
Estévez will be one of the most sought after free agents this winter, as either a closer candidate or a potential high-leverage arm. Due to pitching most of his career to date with the Rockies, we have to take all the numbers and data with a big grain of salt. Going from the high altitude of Colorado to more games played closer to sea level, the ball will behave differently.
Even when handling the thin air of Colorado for half his games, Estévez has all the qualities to be a top reliever. He averages 97.5 MPH on a fastball that has a vertical movement profile, making it a nice swing and miss offering. He also throws a good slider and changeup, which may see a jump in usage with more movement pitching in Arizona instead of Colorado. Estévez throws 70% fastballs and throws his two secondary pitches nearly equally as often as change-of-pace offerings.
Estévez could be considered a closer candidate but at a lower price than some of the names mentioned above, perhaps in the $7M-$8 Million per year range. The D-backs have had plenty of looks at the soon to be 30-year-old reliever over the past six years, so they should have a pretty good idea of what to expect.
7. RHP Michael Fulmer
Fulmer is a converted starter due to a long list of injuries, but has surfaced as a solid reliever. The main concern with him is a one MPH velocity drop that has also impacted his strikeout rate. That has also caused a change in pitch usage, as Fulmer has become less fastball-dependent and gone more to his slider to get hitters out. Moving from Detroit and Minnesota to Arizona, how his slider's movement profile changes from the drier climate could determine if he's still an effective late-inning reliever.
Fulmer likely projects to be a setup guy in the D-backs bullpen as opposed to a closer candidate. Signing him will likely cost around $6-7 Million per season.
8. RHP Carl Edwards Jr.
Edwards has quietly put together a good season out of the Nationals bullpen. He went 6-3 with a 2.70 ERA and a 54/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 60 innings. He would be a candidate for medium leverage setup duty, although a low strikeout rate and a higher home run rate brings concerns about his true run prevention skill. Edwards averages 94 MPH on his 4-Seam Fastball with good spin and extension. He throws a curveball and a changeup as change-of-pace offerings.
Edwards would be a pretty cheap signing compared to the rest of the list, due to a slightly lesser track record and limited upside, at around $5-6 Million a year.
9. RHP Corey Knebel
Not too long ago, Knebel was about as consistent closer as they came for the Brewers. Since tearing the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow at the tail-end of the 2018 season, it's been a bumpy ride back. He's bounced around from Milwaukee, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia, showing a reduced strikeout rate and elevated walk rate since returning from Tommy John surgery in the 2020 season.
He still averages 95 MPH on the fastball and is getting good results on his curveball and slider, so there may be juice left in the tank for the soon to be 31-year-old. The promise of the closer role would be the D-backs main selling point in negotiations, a role that Knebel has performed well in before. A tear in the capsule of his throwing shoulder has sidelined him since August and could threaten to impact his availability for the 2023 season, as he's trying a treatment to avoid surgery.
Knebel could be a flyer signing for the D-backs, with the shoulder injury likely lowering his price tag to a range they can afford. Despite signing for $10 Million a year ago, Knebel could possibly be had on a make good deal in the $5-$7 Million range. There is significant risk if he has to miss time with the injury, but a potential payoff too.
10. RHP Chad Green
Green could be a buy-low candidate for the D-backs on a multiyear deal. He will likely be out until the All-Star break due to recovering from Tommy John surgery. He could still command a multi year deal and the promise of a high leverage role, which might be required to get him to sign.
Before the injury, Green had been a very reliable arm for the Yankees in a relief role as a middle reliever and setup man. If his stuff can return to pre-surgery levels, he could serve as a high-leverage setup man or eat up a couple innings at a time for the bullpen. The likely price tag for Green is still around $6MM per season.
In free agency, the D-backs will be looking to shore up the backend of the bullpen and possibly add more depth to their relief corps. With the improvement in the position player lineup and promising prospects in the starting rotation, fixing the bullpen has to be the key area to address this upcoming winter.
